Just a refresher – I will provide 5 bold predictions each week. I will grade those 5 bold picks on the old elementary scale of grades A-D.
1. Davante Adams is listed as the 2nd best WR, he will finish outside the top 10
Justification: Coming back form his hamstring injury, Aaron Rodgers will want to get Adams in the game and don’t get me wrong, he will likely get either 100 yards or a touchdown, but I don’t see him getting both. Carlton Davis will be guarding him and Davis has the most interceptions in the league this year (3). With Rodgers as cautious as he is, I think we see a few snaps where his progressions bring him to safer options like Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Robert Tonyan. Davante’s 100 yards OR one touchdown puts him closer to WR20 per last weeks rankings.
2. David Johnson sets a season high in fantasy points this week against Tennessee Titans defense
Justification: His previous high was against Kansas City where he finished with 77 rushing yards and a touchdown. I think we see a week where he approaching 100 yards with a touchdown. Three running backs who’ve faced the Titans posted bigger days than Johnson did vs the Chiefs. I think Houston lets him run but also utilizes him in the passing game as well.
3. Ian Thomas is slotted as the 24th best TE, he finishes in the top 10 this week vs. Chicago Bears
Justification: Chicago’s defense is elite…with the exception of TE coverage. Three tight ends have scored against the Bears and three tight ends have had over 50 receiving yards. Teddy Bridgewater will utilize Thomas in a pinch this week and I see him with either 40 yards or a touchdown. There is a chance that Chris Manhertz gets some targets as he played 80 percent of the snaps last week but he seems to be primarily blocking while Thomas is used as the catching tight end.
4. The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by three points vs. the Cleveland Browns this weekend, they will win by 6.5 points
Justification: As a Browns fan I desperately want the Browns to win this game and I will say it will be fascinating as the Steelers excel where the Browns do and are weak where the Browns are. That said, the two x-factors are revenge for the Browns finally winning last season and the ensuing Myles Garret incident and the Pittsburgh defensive line finally getting to Baker Mayfield a few times to create turnovers which the Browns have largely minimized over the last three games.
5. Philip Rivers is slotted as the 21st best QB this week, he will finish among the top 12
Justification: Cincinnati Bengals have held two quarterbacks to less than two touchdowns this season: Tyrod Taylor in Week 1 and a struggling Carson Wentz in Week 3. Rivers has yet to throw more than one touchdown in a game this season and that ends this week. Fresh off a loss to the Browns, I think the Colts rebound big and Rivers throw for 250+ yards with tow or more TDs. A strong vet like Rivers will know how to come in strong at home.
Week 5 results
1. Dak Prescott is listed as the third best QB this week, he will finish outside the top 12. Outcome: What happened to Dak was horrible and injuries are plowing their way through the NFL this year. Grade A.
3. Antonio Gibson is slotted as the 22nd best RB, this week he finishes as a top 10 RB. Outcome: Washington was not able to run the ball and Gibson had a fairly weak day. Grade D.
4. Justin Jefferson is slotted as the 34th best WR, he will finish inside the top 20. Outcome: Of all of the missed picks this season this one has me confounded. Sure Adam Thielen got all of the shares but I really thought they would work to get Jefferson more involved then they did. Grade D.
5. Jason Myers has 3x as many FG kicks as he’s had in any game this season. Outcome: Nary a kick was had as Russel did what he does best and scored on one of the best red zone teams in the league. Grade D.
Grade A: 8 times
Grade B: 4 times
Grade C: 3 times
Grade D: 10 times