Monday afternoon game preview: What to expect fantasy-wise from Chiefs at Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills face off Monday afternoon at 5:00 pm EST and I’m here to breakdown the two teams and who offers the best fantasy football value this week.

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes enters a Monday afternoon showdown against an under performing Bills’ defense as the overall QB1 in our Fake Teams rankings.

For Tyreek Hill fantasy managers concerned over coverage by lock-down cornerback Tre’Davious White, Hill’s 43% slot snap share should keep him free from White for much of the bout. Hill is a locked-in WR1, playing with the NFL’s best quarterback.

With Sammy Watkins out (hamstring) the Chiefs’ three-wide grouping now features Demarcus Robinson and football fan-favorite Mecole Hardman. While Robinson can be expected to run cardio for much of the outing, as he’s wont to do, Hardman could actually see some enticing work downfield. Fantasy managers need to temper expectations as this is Bills, whose defense could get right at any moment, but Hardman really is a solid flex play this week. Consider him a high-floor play with a good shot at a long score. His possible return yardage boosts his box score friendliness. Robinson is just a low-ceiling flex option.

Buffalo’s tight end coverage has been one to target this year, as the recent box scores of Darren Waller (Week 4) and Jonnu Smith (Week 5) can attest to. Travis Kelce retains elite TE1 value as the focal point of the Chiefs’ passing attack. His dominant red zone target market share (27.27%) bodes well for his chances of finding paydirt more than once this week.

With Le’Veon Bell’s arrival not due until Week 7, Clyde Edwards-Helaire managers can expect a rock-solid 20-touch workload from their back-end RB1.

Whether Darrel Williams or DeAndre Washington is the team’s primary backup running back this week, neither one carries fantasy value.

Bills

Although Kansas City has done a decent job of limiting opposing passing games, mobile quarterbacks have found success on the ground. In Week 1, Deshaun Watson took six carries for 27-yards and a score. In Week 2, rookie quarterback Justin Herbert took four carries for 18-yards and a score and in Week 3, Lamar Jackson shredded them by taking just eight carries for a team-leading 83-yards on the ground. Josh Allen, one of the NFL’s premier rushing quarterbacks, is the overall QB2 this week.

The Chiefs’ back-end has been waxed by downfield speedsters, allowing big days to Will Fuller (Week 1), Damiere Byrd (Week 4), and Henry Ruggs (Week 5). Accordingly, Stefon Diggs can be started as an elite Top 12 option. John Brown’s lower body injuries have caused problems over the last few weeks and he was worryingly downgraded form back-to-back full participations of Thursday and Friday to a limited participant on Saturday. Brown is a game-time decision this week and would be a boom/bust flex option if active.

Slot receiver Cole Beasley remains an every-week high-floor flex who only carries real upside in full-point PPR formats. Something working in his favor though is the absence of tight end Dawson Knox (calf). Beasley will have the slot route/safety valve role all to himself this week.

No. 2 Zack Moss returns just in time to make Devin Singletary managers nervous for what would otherwise be an enticing setup. T.J. Yeldon also played well enough last week that his performance is likely to be hanging in the back of head coach Sean McDermott’s mind. to start the game, we can assume that Singletary will retain rights to the lead back job while Moss should handle No. 2 duties. Yeldon can’t be expected to be a fantasy factor but might do enough to lower the fantasy ceiling of the others. With such a great match-up—the Chiefs have allowed the NFL’s 3rd-most rushing yards (788)—Singletary exists somewhere in the RB2/flex realm. Moss and Yeldon are not safe enough to start.