As we patiently await the start of the 2020 season, I thought I would take a quick dive into some values in drafts. I'm going to look at consensus ADP from FantasyPros. They compile the ADP of ESPN, CBS, Yahoo!, NFBC, and Fantrax. A nice tool, especially since you can compare ADP between sites. I'll take it round-by-round, assuming a 12-team league and highlighting who I think the best value of each round is.
Here we go!
Fantasy Pros ADP: 12
It's hard to find value in the first round since all the picks are superstars. I'll highlight Trevor Story here because I have him as my seventh ranked player overall. A total five-category stud with Coors Field as his home turf, sign me up! Story is 83rd percentile in average exit velocity, 87th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 95th percentile in sprint speed. He also addressed his biggest flaw, which was strikeouts. Story has been around a 26% K-rate guy the past two seasons after having a 33% K-rate his first two years in the bigs. I'm all in on Story, especially in roto formats.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 22
Again, Round 2 has mostly superstars, so finding value can be tough. I suggest shooting for the moon with Fernando Tatis Jr. The argument for him here is this might be the last time you can draft Tatis Jr. outside of the first round. His ADP is especially low on ESPN, as he is 36th overall. Take advantage of that value! In half a season, Tatis Jr. had 22 home runs and 16 steals with a .969 OPS. His wOBA of .398 was 12th in baseball last year. That's higher than Juan Soto and Nolan Arenado, among others. He was also 80th percentile in hard hit percentage and 95th percentile in sprint speed. His barrel percentage was top 25 in baseball. Tatis has all the tools to be a yearly fantasy monster.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 29
Bang! Bang! Look, I get it. The Astros are big cheaters. I don't like it, you don't like it, but they are still one of the best offenses in baseball. Thus, fantasy production is to be had. I could have made a strong case for Alex Bregman in Round 2 as the 13th player overall in ADP. Bregman could be the third best pure hitter in MLB behind only Mike Trout and Christian Yelich. Jose Altuve was a top five pick just two seasons ago. Sure, the steals have dropped but the power seems to be at its best. Plus, the pure hitting skills are still elite. There's a reason he's among the leaders in hits season after season. His sprint speed in 2019 was actually the best of his career. Maybe the steals can bounce back? For him to go around 30th overall seems to point to a bit of an overreaction from the Astros hate.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 41
My love for Ketel Marte is already published, as he was my target during second base week. I’m a believer in his 2019 breakout. Last year, he finished seventh in baseball with a .981 OPS and ninth with a .405 wOBA. He outperformed his expected stats, sure. But his expected stats are still elite. He has easy top 20 upside, plus multi-position eligibility with both second base and outfield. How he is going outside the top 40 is beyond me.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 58
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has one of the widest ranges depending on what site you are drafting on. He goes early in Yahoo!, at 46th overall. It's much later on CBS and ESPN at 67th and 75th overall, respectively. Vlad Jr. has the tools and pedigree to be among the best hitters in baseball. His average exit velocity in 2019 was just 89 MPH, but he led the league in hits over 115 MPH with seven. His average home run distance was fourth in baseball, behind the likes of Trout and Yelich. He has .300 average upside with 40+ home run potential. That could come to fruition this year.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 72
Another one of my favorites this season, Yoan Moncada is currently going at the end of Round 6. He’s even more undervalued on ESPN, where his ADP is 104! For reference, I have Moncada at 54 overall. I've already gushed over him enough on this site, so I'll be short. The ceiling for Yoan Moncada is MVP-level. That could happen as soon as 2020. Remember, he was touted higher than Ronald Acuna Jr. a few years ago. He could be just as good.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 77
Round 7 has some interesting names. Giancarlo Stanton could be a steal if healthy, and Nelson Cruz is undervalued yearly. But let's take a look at our first pitcher of this exercise. Jose Berrios could be an ace. In fact, some could argue he already is! Berrios had 17 starts of more than six IP. If we highlight his first 22 starts of 2019, Berrios had a 2.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with an 8.45 K/9. You'd like to see the strikeouts go up. I think that will happen in 2020. He is already great at limiting hard contact. In 2019, he was 86th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and 83rd percentile in hard hit percentage allowed. He plays on a team where wins should be easy to pick up. Plus, he has a very pitching friendly division schedule.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 92
Perhaps the steal of the draft, Marcell Ozuna is going crazy late in drafts. I mean CRAZY LATE! I have him 50 spots above his current ADP at 42 overall! Maybe I'm a bit crazy too, but he hit 37 home runs at Marlins Park! In 2017! Presumably before the juiced ball was introduced. He will now hit behind Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Freddie Freeman. The dude could have 130 RBIs. That's just six more than his career best. He's going almost 100th overall everywhere.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 97
Speaking of going 100 overall. How about a former two-time Cy Young award-winning pitcher? I'll bite. Corey Kluber has been one of the most consistent starters in all of the MLB over the past five seasons. He averaged 218 IP with a 10.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over that stretch. That's Clayton Kershaw numbers, y'all! Are we really going to write him off after 35 bad innings? I'll take the risk, especially given the discount.
Fantasy Pros ADP: 112
Not a great round for value here. I'll highlight Taylor Rogers because he's my fifth ranked closer and I like him a bit more than his ADP. Rogers has posted similar stat lines over the past two seasons, but his 2019 was an improvement. He saw his K/9 rise to 11.70 and his BB/9 decrease to 1.40...all while keeping his ERA and WHIP about the same. In 2019, his xwOBA of .258 was 15th in baseball. He also had the 15th best xERA at 2.88. Lastly, his hard hit rate allowed of 29.7% was 21st in the league. Comparable to others like Roberto Osuna (29.4%) and Jack Flaherty (30.3%).
Let me know what you think in the comments! Who are your favorite draft day values?