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Zach Wheeler ended up having the most innings pitched in the regular season, just like we all expected right? Last year it was Lance Lynn and the year before that it was Justin Verlander. In fact, no pitcher has had back-to-back seasons being among the top three in innings pitched, and only Justin Verlander has repeated a top five performance (twice). In essence, it’s rare to see a pitcher go the distance repeatedly. But who is surprised? It’s tough to pitch for an entire season. It’s tougher to maintain that pace for multiple seasons, and nearly impossible to do it for five seasons. Injuries, limitations, poor years, and larger pitching rotations have limited many pitchers to a lower number of innings than we would have historically seen 10 or 15 years ago.
Five pitchers have been among the top 50 in innings pitched each year from 2017 – 2021 (Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, Aaron Nola, Patrick Corbin and Max Scherzer). Among those five pitchers, only Cole has been in the top 15 each year and only Greinke and Corbin have been among the top 30 each year. Why is this important? For those of you that play fantasy football you may recall the curse of the 370. When a running back had more than 370 carries he was statistically very likely to bottom out the next season, as it was too much wear and tear on a human body, even at elite athletic levels.
There have been 130 total Pitchers to land among the top 50 in IP over the last five years (out of a potential 250 spots – top 50 x 5 years)
- 65 pitchers made it just one year (50%)
- 32 pitchers did it two years (25%)
- 16 pitchers did it three years (12%)
- 12 pitchers did it four years (9%)
- 5 pitchers did it all five years (4%)
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Looking into top 10 innings pitcher performances
- If a pitcher DID happen to land among the top 10 in innings pitched, they repeated a top 10 innings performance 28 times out of a possible 50 (62% of the time).
- So elite pitchers are going to be elite more often than not.
- On average, if a pitcher finished in the top 10 AND finished in the top 50 the next season, they averaged a finish of 25th.
Looking into top 50 innings pitcher performances
- If a pitcher was among the top 50 in innings pitched, the feat was repeated 95/200 times over the last 5 years. This means if your pitcher was a top 50 pitcher in innings pitched, there is a 47% chance they will do it again in 2022.
The summary of this is – trust in the elites: Cole, Greinke, Nola, Corbin, Scherzer, DeGrom, Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, Lucas Giolito etc...to repeat a lengthy number of innings pitched. Be wary of a repeat performance when you see a Zac Gallen, Clayton Richard, Chris Flexen, Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Julio Urias, James Shields, Aaron Civale, Ervin Santana etc.. because they repeat it less than half the time.
Top 50 IP Year over Year
Player | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Average | Count |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Average | Count |
Gerrit Cole | 8 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 5 |
Zack Greinke | 9 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 29 | 15 | 5 |
Aaron Nola | 49 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 5 |
Patrick Corbin | 20 | 12 | 14 | 29 | 28 | 21 | 5 |
Max Scherzer | 14 | 1 | 47 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 5 |
Jacob deGrom | 10 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 4 | |
Zack Wheeler | 28 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 4 | |
Kyle Hendricks | 14 | 36 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 4 | |
Jose Berrios | 18 | 15 | 35 | 6 | 19 | 4 | |
Lance Lynn | 26 | 7 | 1 | 47 | 20 | 4 | |
German Marquez | 16 | 46 | 2 | 18 | 21 | 4 | |
Trevor Bauer | 39 | 39 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 4 | |
Kevin Gausman | 24 | 26 | 41 | 6 | 24 | 4 | |
Yu Darvish | 24 | 34 | 5 | 34 | 24 | 4 | |
Rick Porcello | 7 | 20 | 44 | 44 | 29 | 4 | |
Lucas Giolito | 42 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 29 | 4 | |
Jon Lester | 33 | 29 | 48 | 39 | 37 | 4 | |
Justin Verlander | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
Luis Castillo | 22 | 17 | 8 | 16 | 3 | ||
Kyle Gibson | 15 | 23 | 13 | 17 | 3 | ||
Carlos Carrasco | 15 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 3 | ||
Marcus Stroman | 11 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 3 | ||
Mike Leake | 27 | 25 | 18 | 23 | 3 | ||
Dallas Keuchel | 7 | 33 | 39 | 26 | 3 | ||
Adam Wainwright | 48 | 29 | 3 | 27 | 3 | ||
Hyun Jin Ryu | 30 | 25 | 30 | 28 | 3 | ||
Julio Teheran | 22 | 38 | 41 | 34 | 3 | ||
Tyler Anderson | 36 | 41 | 32 | 36 | 3 | ||
Jose Quintana | 21 | 40 | 50 | 37 | 3 | ||
Matthew Boyd | 50 | 24 | 40 | 38 | 3 | ||
Mike Fiers | 45 | 25 | 44 | 38 | 3 | ||
Dylan Bundy | 46 | 46 | 29 | 40 | 3 | ||
Clayton Kershaw | 42 | 35 | 49 | 42 | 3 | ||
Shane Bieber | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
Corey Kluber | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |||
Sandy Alcantara | 17 | 4 | 11 | 2 | |||
Kyle Freeland | 9 | 15 | 12 | 2 | |||
Brandon Woodruff | 7 | 22 | 15 | 2 | |||
Marco Gonzales | 12 | 18 | 15 | 2 | |||
Charlie Morton | 21 | 10 | 16 | 2 | |||
Walker Buehler | 31 | 2 | 17 | 2 | |||
Jeff Samardzija | 3 | 33 | 18 | 2 | |||
Luis Severino | 17 | 20 | 19 | 2 | |||
Miles Mikolas | 10 | 27 | 19 | 2 | |||
Zach Davies | 18 | 19 | 19 | 2 | |||
Stephen Strasburg | 40 | 5 | 23 | 2 | |||
Ivan Nova | 23 | 23 | 23 | 2 | |||
Mike Minor | 7 | 41 | 24 | 2 | |||
Robbie Ray | 44 | 5 | 25 | 2 | |||
Jhoulys Chacin | 34 | 17 | 26 | 2 | |||
Reynaldo Lopez | 24 | 27 | 26 | 2 | |||
Eduardo Rodriguez | 11 | 44 | 28 | 2 | |||
Antonio Senzatela | 8 | 49 | 29 | 2 | |||
Andrew Heaney | 32 | 27 | 30 | 2 | |||
Gio Gonzalez | 11 | 48 | 30 | 2 | |||
Tanner Roark | 31 | 31 | 31 | 2 | |||
Martin Perez | 29 | 38 | 34 | 2 | |||
Masahiro Tanaka | 38 | 32 | 35 | 2 | |||
Merrill Kelly | 29 | 43 | 36 | 2 | |||
Corbin Burnes | 41 | 32 | 37 | 2 | |||
Jakob Junis | 35 | 39 | 37 | 2 | |||
Chris Bassitt | 35 | 45 | 40 | 2 | |||
Dylan Cease | 49 | 35 | 42 | 2 | |||
Jose Urena | 46 | 41 | 44 | 2 | |||
Jake Arrieta | 48 | 43 | 46 | 2 | |||
Chris Sale | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
Ervin Santana | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
Carlos Martinez | 5 | 5 | 1 | ||||
Aaron Civale | 6 | 6 | 1 | ||||
James Shields | 7 | 7 | 1 | ||||
Frankie Montas | 9 | 9 | 1 | ||||
Madison Bumgarner | 9 | 9 | 1 | ||||
Julio Urias | 10 | 10 | 1 | ||||
Chris Archer | 11 | 11 | 1 | ||||
Mike Clevinger | 12 | 12 | 1 | ||||
Nathan Eovaldi | 12 | 12 | 1 | ||||
Zac Gallen | 12 | 12 | 1 | ||||
Joe Musgrove | 14 | 14 | 1 | ||||
Framber Valdez | 15 | 15 | 1 | ||||
Clayton Richard | 16 | 16 | 1 | ||||
Noah Syndergaard | 16 | 16 | 1 | ||||
Jordan Lyles | 18 | 18 | 1 | ||||
Tyler Mahle | 18 | 18 | 1 | ||||
Jack Flaherty | 19 | 19 | 1 | ||||
R.A. Dickey | 19 | 19 | 1 | ||||
Dinelson Lamet | 20 | 20 | 1 | ||||
Chris Flexen | 21 | 21 | 1 | ||||
Jameson Taillon | 22 | 22 | 1 | ||||
Sean Manaea | 22 | 22 | 1 | ||||
Cole Hamels | 23 | 23 | 1 | ||||
Cole Irvin | 27 | 27 | 1 | ||||
Kenta Maeda | 27 | 27 | 1 | ||||
Marco Estrada | 27 | 27 | 1 | ||||
Mike Foltynewicz | 27 | 27 | 1 | ||||
Blake Snell | 30 | 30 | 1 | ||||
Dan Straily | 30 | 30 | 1 | ||||
Anthony DeSclafani | 31 | 31 | 1 | ||||
Brady Singer | 32 | 32 | 1 | ||||
Ricky Nolasco | 32 | 32 | 1 | ||||
Johnny Cueto | 33 | 33 | 1 | ||||
Zack Godley | 33 | 33 | 1 | ||||
J.A. Happ | 34 | 34 | 1 | ||||
Jason Hammel | 34 | 34 | 1 | ||||
Max Fried | 35 | 35 | 1 | ||||
David Price | 36 | 36 | 1 | ||||
Jason Vargas | 36 | 36 | 1 | ||||
Alec Mills | 37 | 37 | 1 | ||||
Alex Cobb | 37 | 37 | 1 | ||||
Wade Miley | 37 | 37 | 1 | ||||
Brett Anderson | 38 | 38 | 1 | ||||
Lance McCullers Jr. | 38 | 38 | 1 | ||||
Sonny Gray | 39 | 39 | 1 | ||||
Jimmy Nelson | 40 | 40 | 1 | ||||
Taijuan Walker | 40 | 40 | 1 | ||||
Dakota Hudson | 41 | 41 | 1 | ||||
Mike Soroka | 41 | 41 | 1 | ||||
Rich Hill | 41 | 41 | 1 | ||||
Matt Moore | 43 | 43 | 1 | ||||
Chris Paddack | 44 | 44 | 1 | ||||
Drew Pomeranz | 44 | 44 | 1 | ||||
Jesus Luzardo | 44 | 44 | 1 | ||||
Jon Gray | 44 | 44 | 1 | ||||
Zach Eflin | 44 | 44 | 1 | ||||
John Lackey | 45 | 45 | 1 | ||||
Jordan Montgomery | 45 | 45 | 1 | ||||
Derek Holland | 47 | 47 | 1 | ||||
Yusei Kikuchi | 47 | 47 | 1 | ||||
Trevor Williams | 49 | 49 | 1 | ||||
Andrew Cashner | 50 | 50 | 1 | ||||
Luis Garcia | 50 | 50 | 1 |