Yours truly had one Hoffman share yesterday alongside a Miami stack. Alas, Giancarlo Stanton left that game early, capping the upside of the lineup. Going so cheap at pitcher allowed me to pay up for Carlos Correa at an ugly shortstop position, but Correa underwhelmed with only 6.5 FDP. Still, the team topped out at 159.9 FDP and had a much higher ceiling. Today I am employing a similar strategy.
Target: David Paulino ($6,600) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are still Trout-less and were shut down by Mike Fiers and a pair of relievers on Saturday. Fiers has been terrible-to-average this season but he limited the Angels to one unearned run over 7.1 innings on Saturday, striking out eight batters in the process.
The Angels have a poor .143 ISO (27th) and 91 wRC+ (22nd) for the season, marks that were obtained in part by Trout’s awesomeness (.405 ISO, 211 wRC+). The only place they excel is strikeout rate, as the 19.5% K-rate is eighth-best in the MLB against right-handed pitching. Still, this is a poor offensive team. Their hard contact rate of 30.2% against RHP is 22nd in the MLB and their 47% ground ball rate is fifth-worst. The Angels make soft contact against RHP 20.3% of the time, which is the seventh-worst mark in the MLB. There are multiple ways to indict this team as an offense.
As for Paulino, John Sickels wrote a rookie profile right here on SB Nation. I encourage you to go read (it is short). The even shorter version is that Paulino is a 6-foot-7 power pitcher. His fastball can touch 97 mph and he has a plus curveball. In fact, here is Daren Willman on Twitter with some Paulino curveball propaganda:
For some reason I can’t get the tweet to embed (I am old and not tech-savvy) but if you click the link you’ll see that Paulino’s curve has some serious spin (3014 RPM). League average is 2492 RPM.
Paulino had a 106/19 K/BB ratio over three levels in 2016, so that gives you an idea of the sort of pitcher he is. For only $6,600 in a plus matchup, I’ll take a stab at a quality start and a win today—even if it comes with a pair of runs allowed. The Astros are projected to score a healthy 5.43 runs against Jesse Chavez today, so that helps the cause as well.
Stack Against: Kevin Gausman with New York Yankees
The Bronx Bombers have been unkind to the division-rival Orioles this weekend, as evidenced by a nine run onslaught against supposed Orioles ace Chris Tillman on Saturday. Tillman only lasted 1 1⁄3 innings prior to being yanked after a Starlin Castro home run. Every Yankee starter had a hit on Saturday, and the team managed a whopping five dingers. In short, the “bombers” are indeed living up to their namesake this season.
Gausman is a guy who can throw gas (95 mph) but he just plain throws the heater too much. Check out SB Nation’s Camden Chat for more insight into Gausman’s reliance on the fastball. In 2017 Gausman has not been good against either handedness, but right-handed hitters have roughed him up more. This has also been true over the course of Gausman’s career, as LHH have a .303 wOBA against him but RHH have a .350 wOBA.
RHH are slashing .365/.410/.556 with a .411 wOBA against Gausman in 2017, and are making hard contact 33.1% of the time. That means some very obvious names are in play this afternoon, like Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Hicks. I don’t believe the lefties Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius should be ignored, though. You can use almost every hitter in this lineup. Slice it up different ways, ladies and gents.
Chris Archer pitches at home today, but he is an obvious choice so the analysis there is sparse. He represents a far safer option to me than Jake Arrieta or Carlos Carrasco.
For the price it is tough to find more upside than Kyle Schwarber ($2,500). I know he hasn’t lived up to his billing but he is still sporting a .220 ISO against RHP and has a healthy 11.5% walk rate. He makes hard contact 34.6% of the time against RHP and hits a ton of fly balls (47.6%). If he is leading off I’ll have a share for only 2.5K. He is the definition of a boom/bust play, and that is what we are looking for in GPPs.
Speaking of cheap, Mallex Smith ($2,000) still represents major value on FanDuel. He opposes Jesse Hahn today. If Smith gets aboard and scores a run, you’ll be content. If he does more than that, you’ll be stoked. There is a good chance you are “stoked” today.
As always, let’s finish with a poll!
Who is your top GPP pitcher today?
This poll is closed
Chris Archer ($11,000 vs. OAK
Jake Arrieta ($10,200) vs. COL
Carlos Carrasco ($9,800) vs. CWS
Aaron Nola ($7,700) @ STL
David Paulino ($6,600) vs. LAA