Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Trae Young (PG). Is Trae a cheap play tonight? All things considered, you better think so. See, Young comes with just the 10th-highest salary of tonight’s main slate and the third-highest among PG-eligible players. The other two players are Lillard and Simmons, which aren’t bad at all, but both are at $10K+ and facing tougher defenses. Trae is going against the second-worst fantasy D in Cleveland’s, projects to a bonkers 48 FP, and it’s been 13 games in a row for Trae hitting 35+ FP, including three consecutive in his last three that went for 54, 52, and 45 DKFP against ORL, TOR, and SAC. The average line from those three doesn’t lie at 32-3-7-1. and Trae shooting a stupid 49% from the floor while hitting 11 combined three-pointers to go with 27-of-34 freebies. The Hawks might stink a bit, but Young is back to his best version these days.
- Hate: Lonzo Ball (PG). As much as I stan for Zo, the salary doesn’t make sense at all today. The older of the Balls is carrying an $8K tag, which is almost a couple thousand above his average price on the year, and that while in the middle of a heavy slump that has seen Lonzo fall below 30 FP for consecutive games and in five of his past six... Last Thursday was a night to forget for Zo, who could only score 3 pops in which ended as his worst shooting performance of the year by far—he had scored at least 5 points in every other match this year, and more than 10 in 28 of his total 35 games played. I’m not saying Zo will put up another such dud, but odds are he does. Since the start of March, Lonzo is averaging just 28 MPG (which might or might not have to do with a potential trade before the deadline) and a completely unworthy 12-3-5 line shooting a putrid 34% from the floor...
- Love: Collin Sexton (PG/SG). While Sexton didn’t have the best of comebacks after the break a couple of days ago (29 FP), it is also true that he played only 32 minutes, which hadn’t happened since Feb. 10 when he logged 29 against Denver. It was truly a fluke of a night from Collin, as he could only grab a couple of boards, dished out one dime, and shot below 40% for the first time since that putrid game against the Nugs. That, folks, won’t be repeating itself any time soon. Sex had three games above 43 FP getting into the break, putting up scores of 43, 57, and 57 while dropping nightly 33-4-7-2 lines in those three. Those were bonker numbers, and they come at sweet discounts on two of the three nights. And that’s precisely what should happen tonight too, as the algorithm has tagged Collin at just $7.8K against the worst D in fantasy basketball. Must-play.
- Hate: Dejounte Murray (PG). Five games priced at $7.5K, five games in which Jounte has fallen below 40 DKFP. Not too good if you were looking for a great return. This Murray is not Jamal-bad, but he’s close. The minutes are never going to top 36, something that has happened just twice this season, and that is already cutting Dejounte’s upside. On top of that, the usage is at an average of only 24% in the Spurs first unit, which isn’t great either. Murray is definitely an efficient per-minute player, but in DFS we want those bulky scores when it comes to high-priced guys, which DeeJay is not. The points are always below 20, the boards top at 6, and the dimes fluctuate around the 6 never hitting double digits. If you’re happy with those 35 points, good for you, but for the price the bang is not quite right.
- Love: Enes Kanter (C). Kan play Kanter. Definitely. It’s been officially confirmed. Kanter is here to stay, Nurkic beware. Seven straight dub-dubbing for Kanter spanning from yesterday to Feb. 23 when he did so for the first time in this run. And I mean, since he’s starting for the Blazers, Enes has only missed on the dub-dub seven times in 25 games, which is nuts. In fact, and if we’re realistic, he’s fallen truly short of it just three times, which are all of the games in which he didn’t score/rebound 7+ points/boards. The last five games this man has played have been absolutely stunning: 16-13 with a block and a 72 FG% on a super-low 18% usage rate and just 29 MPG. Kanter is one of four biggies dub-dubbing on the season while playing fewer than 30 MPG, the others being Capela, Drummond, and Valanciunas.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 10-11 (Feb. 22 to Mar. 7)
- We’re back to the good old times of Giannis dominating the L, folks. In a week in which everything went down in the fantasy basketball realm, Giannis Antotekounmpo was the only player with 3+ games played to average more than 59 FP, finishing with 65 DKFP per game in his three matches this past week.
- The numbers were crazy at an average 37-11-6-1-2 line and he even added 1.7 3PG, went to the line almost 10 times per game, and hit 60% of his 24 FGA per game nightly to go with a 75% rate from the charity stripe. Nobody came even remotely close to Giannis’ 1.84 FP/min even though the Greek logged 36 MPG. Jokic was second at 1.66, with Jimmer ranking third at 1.57.
- Not only was Giannis’ average the best among all players, but he reached that mark on a very steady basis with a minimal deviation of 7 DKFP per game. His scores read 66, 58, and 71. Jokic’s deviation was even better (fewer than 3 FP per game), but Butler’s 14 was quite high (he went as low as 37 FP and as high as 62).
- Bradley Beal came back to his scoring ways, ranking second in PPG with 35 per game only behind Giannis (37) and above Devin Booker (33). No other player reached 30, though Zion finished at a close 29.7 PPG.
- No player was able to close the week averaging a trip-dub, with Westbrook (22-11-9), Draymond (9-8-11), Sabonis (20-9-7), Jimmy (25-7-9), Jokic (28-9-8), and Harden (26-9-9) being the closest to it.
- Silly cheap values: Markieff, Krokmaz, Wade, Isaiah Stewart, Thybulle, Scott, Nowell, Windler, Saben Lee, Teague, Saric
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: PJ Washington, Bruce Brown, Monk, Branes, Rose, Dennis Smith Jr., DiVincenzo, Kemba, Steven Adams, Nunn, Bledsoe
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Ben Simmons, LaVine, Tatum, Paul George, Jaylen, Wall, Rozier, Morant, Valanciunas, Oubre.
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Saben Lee, Tyus Jones, Windler, Korkmaz, Nowell, Shamet, Teague, Paschall, Reid, Saric, Winslow, Cam Johnson, Forbes, Niang
- Cheap threes: Windler, Shamet, Niang, Korkmaz, Iggy, Tony Snell
- Cheap boards: Isaiah Stewart, Marjanovic, Wade, Gibson, Sterling Brown, Markieff, Saric, Dwight, Iggy, PJ Tucker, Tillman, Windler
- Cheap dimes: Saben Lee, Chasson Randle, Tyus Jones, Teague, James Johnson, Bembry, THT, Rondo, Wanamaker
- Cheap steals: Ntilikina, Okeke, Aminu, Windler, Claxton, Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Stewart.
- Cheap blocks: Patton, McGee, Reid, Len, Claxton, Thybulle, Dwight, Stewart, THT
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Saben Lee, Paschall, Reid, Cam Johnson, Shamet, THT, Winslow, Nowell, Korkmaz
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!