Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Clint Capela (C). Atlanta doesn’t know what the hell it’s doing this year. Trae Young and John Collins bitched about each other. The franchise moved on from his head coach. The Hawks don’t have any idea of their position in the deadline, whether they’re sellers or buyers. It’s all a big mess. But in the middle of that hurricane, and obviously other than Trae, Captain Cap has been incredible. The Clint is putting up 14-14 dub-dubs nightly in his 33 games and below-30 minutes of run per game. That’s so great. Cap is shooting 59 percent from the floor on almost 11 FGA, which is very nice. The loves are always going to come, and it is virtually impossible to watch CC score fewer than 10 pops a day. Even harder? Watching him pull down fewer than 10 boards. That’s only happened three times all year long, and once in his last 12 games going back to Feb. 12. Bonkers. If you need more reasons to play him, these are Capelas swatted shots in his last five games: 3, 4, 3, 1, and 5. Spicy sauce right there.
- Hate: Terry Rozier (PG/SG). This Terry is indeed Scary. I love Rozier. I am a stan. Plain and simple. But man, is he a bouncy mofo out there on the court. His performances are so random that you never truly know what the hell you’re getting from him. To wit: Roz entered the break on back-to-back 39+ FP games against Portland and Minny to then exit it with a 28-FP performance two days ago against Detroit. He caught fire late on that one, and kind of saved his day to a point, but even then his 17-1-2-3 line was far from great. Rozier can give you a 40+ fantasy points game as often as he can hand you one below 25 FP. Seriously. He has eight of each so far this year, which is as craziness-inducing as it gets. There are no Hornets tagged with any sort of probable/questionable/out/etc... tag for tonight’s game, also, so Terry might lose some minutes and touches here and there with Graham ramping up his conditioning and seemingly fully available already.
- Love: Buddy Hield (SG/SF). When the opportunity presents itself in front of your eyes, you gotta grab it by its brain. Enter Buddy Hield at a ridiculous $6.6K price. I mean, what the hell is even that, Mr. Algorithm? Buddy has been straight balling leading up to the break and in the lone game he’s played this week: 46, 51, 34, and 46 FP are his marks. His average line sits at 25-5-6 in that span, he’s hit 5+ treys in each of those four games topping at 8 against the Hornets, his ROI can’t get any higher, but his price is just not going up. Will Hield regress something? Sure, it makes sense. Is he looking for any symptoms he’s about to do so? No, sir. Oh, and the Hawks are probably not the best team to make that happen tonight, either. Must. Play.
- Hate: Jamal Murray (PG). What. The. Hell. Was. That. Huh? Are we back to Middling Murray after we got to witness the comeback of Bubble Murray through the second half of February? Oh, boy, would that suck. But we’re getting there. This was Jam from Feb. 12 to Feb. 25: 50 DKFP per game to the tune of a 31-6-5-1 average line. This has been Murray (not quite my Jam) from Feb. 27 to Mar. 12: 33 DKFP per game with an average 20-2-5-1 line. Not so hard to spot the difference, if you ask me, and that is even though the man has been shooting the lights out in four of his last five games with a stupid 57 FG% from the floor in those four. The minutes have not changed, but Murray is back to sucking a bit. He will probably end getting it right again, but he’s bouncy as hell. Fading him till the proper time comes.
- Love: Mason Plumlee (C). Will Plumlee win you the day? Probably not. Will he help you get there? Absolutely. The Mason of the Plumlees is coming in at just $6.2K tonight, facing a no-big-men squad in Brooklyn’s, and although he only projects to around 35 FP that would already be a nice ROI to be gotten from this man. And it is not that Plumlee has been bad this year in putrid Motown, mates. We’re talking bout a fool shooting 61+ percent from the loof on 7 FGA per game (say what!?). Sure, Plumlee won’t be stretching the floor for you or anything like that, but he’s almost dub-dubbing on the year (10-9) while dishing out 4 dimes per game and averaging 1.5+ stocks a night. The discount is sublime, so you know what to do.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 10-11 (Feb. 22 to Mar. 7)
- We’re back to the good old times of Giannis dominating the L, folks. In a week in which everything went down in the fantasy basketball realm, Giannis Antotekounmpo was the only player with 3+ games played to average more than 59 FP, finishing with 65 DKFP per game in his three matches this past week.
- The numbers were crazy at an average 37-11-6-1-2 line and he even added 1.7 3PG, went to the line almost 10 times per game, and hit 60% of his 24 FGA per game nightly to go with a 75% rate from the charity stripe. Nobody came even remotely close to Giannis’ 1.84 FP/min even though the Greek logged 36 MPG. Jokic was second at 1.66, with Jimmer ranking third at 1.57.
- Not only was Giannis’ average the best among all players, but he reached that mark on a very steady basis with a minimal deviation of 7 DKFP per game. His scores read 66, 58, and 71. Jokic’s deviation was even better (fewer than 3 FP per game), but Butler’s 14 was quite high (he went as low as 37 FP and as high as 62).
- Bradley Beal came back to his scoring ways, ranking second in PPG with 35 per game only behind Giannis (37) and above Devin Booker (33). No other player reached 30, though Zion finished at a close 29.7 PPG.
- No player was able to close the week averaging a trip-dub, with Westbrook (22-11-9), Draymond (9-8-11), Sabonis (20-9-7), Jimmy (25-7-9), Jokic (28-9-8), and Harden (26-9-9) being the closest to it.
- Silly cheap values: Markieff, Krokmaz, Wade, Isaiah Stewart, Thybulle, Scott, Nowell, Windler, Saben Lee, Teague, Saric
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: PJ Washington, Bruce Brown, Monk, Branes, Rose, Dennis Smith Jr., DiVincenzo, Kemba, Steven Adams, Nunn, Bledsoe
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Ben Simmons, LaVine, Tatum, Paul George, Jaylen, Wall, Rozier, Morant, Valanciunas, Oubre.
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Saben Lee, Tyus Jones, Windler, Korkmaz, Nowell, Shamet, Teague, Paschall, Reid, Saric, Winslow, Cam Johnson, Forbes, Niang
- Cheap threes: Windler, Shamet, Niang, Korkmaz, Iggy, Tony Snell
- Cheap boards: Isaiah Stewart, Marjanovic, Wade, Gibson, Sterling Brown, Markieff, Saric, Dwight, Iggy, PJ Tucker, Tillman, Windler
- Cheap dimes: Saben Lee, Chasson Randle, Tyus Jones, Teague, James Johnson, Bembry, THT, Rondo, Wanamaker
- Cheap steals: Ntilikina, Okeke, Aminu, Windler, Claxton, Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Stewart.
- Cheap blocks: Patton, McGee, Reid, Len, Claxton, Thybulle, Dwight, Stewart, THT
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Saben Lee, Paschall, Reid, Cam Johnson, Shamet, THT, Winslow, Nowell, Korkmaz
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!