Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Kyle Lowry (PG). Man, it’s going to be a packed page of silly rumors to read through daily from this day to the deadline. With Lowry right there in the middle of them all. Will he leave his franchise, seeking a second chip? Will he stay? Will he go? Will Drake drop a freestyle addressing the situation? Who the hell knows. What I know, though, is that tonight’s is Kyle’s night. Lowry projects to a bonker 50+ FP and combined with his salary and his season average, my calculations are telling me that he’s the most valuable player of tonight’s slate. That’s insider info right there, although knowing Atlanta is at the other end of the matchup you don’t really have to apply rocket science to this thing. 18-5-7-1 on the season with 46/40/86 shooting splits? Against the worst fantasy D in the L? Lemon-pepper szn.
- Hate: Terry Rozier (PG). Terry Rozier is just Malik Monk with a cult following. That’s it, that’s what Terry is. Rozier can give you the 50 goodies as easily as he can hand you the 20 duds. It’s just insane. Check the games from Feb. 22 to the break: 19, 25, 33, 17, 39, 48 were the FP on those matches, and you kind of see what I mean when talking about Roz. Just in that span, he’s had games of 8 and 10 points and 31-chicken-wing masterclasses. This man can drop buckets, for sure, but he’s a little too bouncy to trust that much. For the $8K he’s tagged at, I’d rather look away and into other options. Namely: Tobi, CP3, Zo, Buddy Hield, Dipo, and even Kemba!
- Love: Tobias Harris (PF). Oh boy did the NBA dodged a PR-bullet just before the AS game when it detected Embiid/Simmons’ COVID-related issues. Uh, oh. The two of them will be out for a week, and thus will miss today’s game, and therefore Tobias will get to eat all he can stomach and then some. The algorithm doesn’t know crap about what is going around in this world we live in, so that’s why Harris’ salary is as low as they get. The second half of February couldn’t have been better for Tobias, if you ask me. The man dropped four 46-FP pieces from Feb. 15 to Feb. 25 and then went for 43 FP on his lone March affair against Utah, no less. Only once did he fall below 33 FP and that was just because he played only 22 minutes against Dallas. Tobias entered the AS break averaging a ridiculous 21-9-5 line in February/March, shooting 50+ percent from the floor, and launching 15+ rocks toward the rim per game. Not bad at all, and Philly will need to spoon-feed him like hell today.
- Hate: Zach LaVine (PF). Facing a depleted Sixers might work in favor of LaVine, not gonna lie about that. BUT. Unluckily for ZLV, the lone healthy body Philly will put on the court tonight might actually be the one expected to put his D on Zachary anyway. That means LaVine will still need to work a damn bit tonight, which doesn’t make his upside that great on the greater picture. Zach is having quite a year, that’s for sure. His last two games went for more than 40 FP, but he also had three below-40 matches prior to that in the last week of February. That, I don’t like. I don’t like it because the price is still as high as a Georgia pine, and unless ZLV puts up his 40+ DKFP then his ROI is not going to hit great value. Not loving this one today at his bonkers near-10K tag.
- Love: Richaun Holmes (C). Sneaky winning-play of the day this one, Holmes. Richaun is playing tonight with a stupid $6.5K tag attached to his forehead, which is way below his actual value. Just peep the season-line: 13-8-2 with 2+ stocks per game on top of that. The shooting is at a freaking 65 percent from the floor, and the freebies are dropping at an 81 percent rate. Damn, Holmes. In the four games Rich played before the break, spanning a week, the fool never scored fewer than 30 DKFP, returned top-tier ROI in every one of those matches, and had a couple of 40+ FP nights against Detroit and Portland. The average line sat at 15-11-1, he kept up a near-65 percent FG%, and even more interestingly he raised his FGA to 10 a day. Nothing to hate here.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 10-11 (Feb. 22 to Mar. 7)
- We’re back to the good old times of Giannis dominating the L, folks. In a week in which everything went down in the fantasy basketball realm, Giannis Antotekounmpo was the only player with 3+ games played to average more than 59 FP, finishing with 65 DKFP per game in his three matches this past week.
- The numbers were crazy at an average 37-11-6-1-2 line and he even added 1.7 3PG, went to the line almost 10 times per game, and hit 60% of his 24 FGA per game nightly to go with a 75% rate from the charity stripe. Nobody came even remotely close to Giannis’ 1.84 FP/min even though the Greek logged 36 MPG. Jokic was second at 1.66, with Jimmer ranking third at 1.57.
- Not only was Giannis’ average the best among all players, but he reached that mark on a very steady basis with a minimal deviation of 7 DKFP per game. His scores read 66, 58, and 71. Jokic’s deviation was even better (fewer than 3 FP per game), but Butler’s 14 was quite high (he went as low as 37 FP and as high as 62).
- Bradley Beal came back to his scoring ways, ranking second in PPG with 35 per game only behind Giannis (37) and above Devin Booker (33). No other player reached 30, though Zion finished at a close 29.7 PPG.
- No player was able to close the week averaging a trip-dub, with Westbrook (22-11-9), Draymond (9-8-11), Sabonis (20-9-7), Jimmy (25-7-9), Jokic (28-9-8), and Harden (26-9-9) being the closest to it.
- Silly cheap values: Markieff, Krokmaz, Wade, Isaiah Stewart, Thybulle, Scott, Nowell, Windler, Saben Lee, Teague, Saric
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: PJ Washington, Bruce Brown, Monk, Branes, Rose, Dennis Smith Jr., DiVincenzo, Kemba, Steven Adams, Nunn, Bledsoe
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Ben Simmons, LaVine, Tatum, Paul George, Jaylen, Wall, Rozier, Morant, Valanciunas, Oubre.
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played in the past seven days): Saben Lee, Tyus Jones, Windler, Korkmaz, Nowell, Shamet, Teague, Paschall, Reid, Saric, Winslow, Cam Johnson, Forbes, Niang
- Cheap threes: Windler, Shamet, Niang, Korkmaz, Iggy, Tony Snell
- Cheap boards: Isaiah Stewart, Marjanovic, Wade, Gibson, Sterling Brown, Markieff, Saric, Dwight, Iggy, PJ Tucker, Tillman, Windler
- Cheap dimes: Saben Lee, Chasson Randle, Tyus Jones, Teague, James Johnson, Bembry, THT, Rondo, Wanamaker
- Cheap steals: Ntilikina, Okeke, Aminu, Windler, Claxton, Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Stewart.
- Cheap blocks: Patton, McGee, Reid, Len, Claxton, Thybulle, Dwight, Stewart, THT
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Saben Lee, Paschall, Reid, Cam Johnson, Shamet, THT, Winslow, Nowell, Korkmaz
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!