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2022 Fantasy Baseball: 5 Bold Second Base Predictions

Gavin Lux takes a big step forward in 2022.

Championship Series - Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers - Game Four Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Second base is a bit deeper than in previous years given the introduction of a handful of talented names climbing the ranks, including: Marcus Semien, Brandon Lowe, Jonathan India, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Tommy Edman. These new additions make it an interesting time to draft this position given it’s wide disparity among home run hitters, those chasing batting average, and those who are just durable players.

1. Marcus Semien hits half as many homers this year as he did last year.

Justification: You will see this trend with me this year. I think the juiced ball from last year is reigned in a bit and we see less total homers hit this season. Semien had the highest ISO of his career last year at .273, a full 36 points higher than any previous season…at the age of 30. He had the highest barrel%, HR/FB% and pull % across the last nine years of his career. In addition to the ball, teams have had an offseason to adjust, and will maybe throw more curveballs, cutters and sliders his way.

2. Ryan McMahon exceeds 100 runs for the first time in his career.

Justification: Ryan took a significant step forward last year. He saw year over year improvement in K%, BB%, batting average, hard hit%, line drive%, and his pull rate went down as he spread the ball out more. There is a bit of a wild card to the Rockies with a litany of young talent between Garrett Hampson, Brendan Rodgers, Raimel Tapia, and Sam Hilliard...this team will see ups and downs this season.

Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

3. Tony Kemp leads all second basemen in OBP and OPS this year.

Justification: Kemp had the best walk rate among all second basemen at 13.1% last year. Add to that his fantastically low strikeout rate of 12.8% and he quite simply knows how to get on base. Beyond his plate discipline, Kemp offers a perfectly average play of center shots at medium %. He led second basemen in OBP, but the OPS would need some growth from his historical power marks (most of which are bottom 15% of the league). If you watched his 2021 season progression, though, he got better as the season went on, getting more comfortable at bat.

4. Gavin Lux becomes a top 10 second baseman.

Justification: After years of hype, this is the season he makes a quantum leap forward. Much of last season may have seemed lackluster, but it was him instilling more plate discipline into his game. With that now in his repertoire, he will put in a bit more power, which will result in the 25-year-old having a marked uptick in value. His xBA and xSLG were well above his actual results last year, and his xStats ticked up over the course of the season.

5. David Fletcher is top three in plate appearances among second basemen.

Justification: Across the last three years here are his ranks of plate appearances among his peers: 7th; 6th, and 7th. No other second baseman has been among the top seven over that time. Guys like Whit Merrifield, Ozzie Albies, Jonathan Villar, Ketel Marte, and DJ LeMahieu have been among the top 7 for two out of those three years. In a nutshell, while injuries, time needed for rest, riding the pine, and general lack of availability have limited many of the 2B over the years, David Fletcher remains a constant in the lineup. I would add that while his homers and RBIs are light, he bats above .260 each year and he had 74 runs in 2021. There is no ability like availability!