Why Sam Fuld is a Fantasy GOD…

The 2011 fantasy season is not even three weeks old, but I can say with confidence that The Big Puma is going to hit 57 home runs and drive in 142 runs, Alex Gordon is going to have a .900 OPS and drive in 126, and Hanley Ramirez is going to plummet into the realm of mediocrity and be benched across the board. What’s that? You say it is too early to overreact with grand proclamations like this? Surely in time these players will hit their career numbers because, you know, baseball is a “game of averages and regression to the mean”, you know this right? I would tell you this: You are totally right, almost.  Every year we have players who come out of nowhere to help fantasy owners everywhere claim a title that seemed hopeless five minutes after draft day. In 2010 bit players like Aubrey Huff, who was largely ignored early on, helped astute owners who took a chance (this one included). Sam Fuld is your hope, your lottery ticket to winning the fantasy title. And with this hope comes bragging rights, rights that can never be revoked, no matter how many times you finish last from here to eternity. So I am writing now to tell you to pin your hopes on….Sam Fuld? Yes, go all in on the almighty Fuld, and maybe, just maybe, you will claim victory.

                Ok so you say, “Yes Dub Boys we get it, you like Sam Fuld, but what about the numbers? All I care about is numbers!!” Ok let’s look at the numbers for a second. Let’s get the bad out of the way. Fuld’s .344 average is a likely a mirage, largely driven by a .357 BABIP. Fuld has never been a high BABIP player despite his above average speed, but there are some signs that Fuld is due for a career year. Fuld’s LD/GB/FB rates are at or near his career norms, so why is he succeeding? Fuld is simply making more contact because he is being more aggressive at the plate. He is swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone (19.5% v. 17.6% career), not waiting on the pitcher to get the advantage in counts. Some might say this is a SSS caveat and will regress in time, but I am not so sure Fuld is due to regress just because he has never done it and SHOULD. It could be that he realized that if he puts wood on the ball, good things can and usually do happen. Combine his new found ability to make contact and his sterling defense to date, and Fuld should remain a fixture in the lead off spot for the Rays. And don’t look now, but the Rays are now 9-9 and seem to have recovered from their early season funk. On a team that could win 85+ games, I do not see the hype machine dying on Mr. Fuld any time soon. My “fearless” projection has Fuld with the following line: 85/8/50/38/.297. You can wait around and hope that your “can’t miss” studs turn it around, or you can take a flyer on a guy who just might have the year no one saw coming, except you you sexy beast. Hey if you miss the boat on Fuld, I hear Aubrey Huff is available in your league.