Fantasy Football 2011: NFL Schedule 2011 - Early Trends

So the NFL may be locked out for now, but that doesn’t mean that you have to do away with planning for this upcoming season. While we may not have full rosters yet or where the rookies are going to land, the newly released 2011-2012 NFL schedule can help us get a better feel for the upcoming season. Because honestly, you don’t want to waste your time with free agents and rookies anyway this far removed from the season anyway, we leave those player evaluations for in-season adjustments.

We know who the studs are and we know which teams they play for, so here’s a brief look into which prominent players were affected by the scheduling.

Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders: I unlike many out there don’t like to shy away from controversy. McFadden is a guy who you either love or you hate. Yes, he’s injury-prone, and is inconsistent at times, but the guy has great burst, speed to burn, catches a ton of balls and is easily the biggest playmaker on his team. Not mention he has a fully capable handcuff in Michael Bush, in a run-first offense. Early indications suggest that his first 7 games heading into the bye this year is manageable, and are against teams with defensive question marks. Aside from the Jets in Week 3, McFadden will face the Broncos, Bills, Pats, Texans, Browns and Chiefs. McFadden is staring at a prime opportunity to repeat his monster stat lines against this bunch. Bottom line – Give McFadden strong considerations in the late first round, but be sure to nab his handcuff in later rounds for insurance.

More after the jump:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers: People often ask me, do you think Rodgers will replicate his numbers to warrant a first round draft pick this year? Looking at the schedule and from what I witnessed in the playoffs, Head Coach Mike McCarthy loves what RB James Starks brings to the team. It seems to me that he will be relying on a more balanced approach not only to throw defenses off, but to keep Rodgers upright. This coupled with the possible loss of James Jones to free agency and the aging Donald Driver, the receiving corp may not be the vocal point of the offense anymore. With Starks and the return of Ryan Grant to the offense, the Packers may at least consider a 50-50 split of run versus the pass. Oh yeah, there’s that whole concussion issue too that kept Rodgers out of games in 2010 too. They need their Super Bowl MVP to make a return to the big game. Bottom line – Don’t overvalue Rodgers this year, late second round is about right.

Arian Foster/Ben Tate/Matt Schaub Texans Dynamics: If you were a true student of fantasy football, you kinda expected Foster to bust loose. He became the primary ball carrier when Ben Tate went down and he was a beast at Tennessee. But the return of Tate and Gary Kubiak’s stubbornness to rely on multiple backs (what the hell was Derrick Ward doing in there last year in games stealing Foster’s points), I have to believe we’re looking at a true time share. Looking deeper into the schedule, this team has some really tough matchups early on.

And this isn’t because I’m basing it not on how their opponents fared last year, because teams often evolve, but from the health of their organization. Their opponents in the first 6 games include: Colts, Saints, Steelers and the Ravens. That’s staring deep into a possible 2-4 start. If that happens, look for carries to running back tandem to go down and Schaub’s role to increase. The second half of the season is a little bit easier with showdowns against the relatively easy AFC South Conference (Jags, Titans). We kinda wish their offense was like last year when Foster ran wild, but this year’s situation may not be a pleasant one for owners. Bottom line – Schaub is no longer an elite QB option, Foster is trending downwards and most of these Texans should be reserved for the middle to late rounds.