Early Returns: Should I Add or Drop These Four Pitchers?

It happens every year.  A pitcher who was drafted gets off to a terrible start.  One of your leaguemates decides to drop him.  You have to make the decision - is this player someone who's going through a rough patch or getting unlucky?  Or is this someone who is truly having problems and should be avoided.  Let's take a look at four pitchers and decide whether they're worth a roster spot or should be avoided at all costs.  All of the following are owned in 50% or less of Yahoo! Leagues.

Note:  all of these stats should be prefaced with a small sample size alert.  I'm not saying any of these trends will or won't continue, just trying to explain why certain early season numbers may be a fluke or a reality.

Travis Wood, SP, Cincinnati Reds - Wood has opened the season with two serviceable starts and two poor starts.  In his four starts, he's given up 1, 6, 1, & 6 earned runs.  His ERA is above 5, with a WHIP north of 1.35.  Despite this, I'd add and stash if he's available in your league (currently 33% owned).  He's struck out 19 in 22 innings, so he's still giving quality production in that category.  He plays on a team with a good offense, so he figures to get enough run production to win games.  His BABIP against is .338, which figures to come down.  It was .259 last year, and the league average is around .295.  So he's been a bit unlucky there.  His strand rate is a comically low 55.9%.  That figures to regress to the mean as well.  The only danger here would be that Wood gets sent back to the minors when Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey return from the DL.  However, his Mike Leake's legal issues and Edinson Volquez's continuted struggles, Wood figures to stick in the majors for now.  On the whole, Wood can still be a valuable player in many mixed leagues.

Recommendation - ADD

Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees - Now on the DL, Hughes was an unmitigated disaster for the Yankees while he was in the rotation.  In three starts, he never went longer than 4.1 innings and gave up 5 earned in each start.  Like Wood, Hughes has been seemingly unlucky.  His BABIP against is high (.357) and his strand rate is low (40.2%).  However, scouts say Hughes has issues with his arm.  Also, he's not getting many swings and misses, with that happening on only 2.9% of all strikes (compared to 8.8% a year ago).  He's on the DL, so as long as you have a spot to stash him there you can do so, but you should have no qualms about dropping him at the first available opportunity.

Recommendation - DROP

Derek Holland, SP, Texas Rangers - Holland, like the two pitchers above, figures to get a lot of run support.  His ERA is north of 4, and he hasn't been particularly unlucky with his BABIP (.312) or strand rate (71.4%).  However, he has been unlucky with his HR/FB rate (13%).  The ballpark he plays in, a notorious hitter's park, probably contributes to that, right?  Not really.  He's given up three homers on the year, and two of those were to the right field short porch at Yankee Stadium (to Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, who aren't slouches).  He's still striking out nearly a man an inning and he's not walking too many people.  Expect for Holland's ERA to fall below where it is now and provide solid value for the rest of the season.

Recommendation - ADD

Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore Orioles - Britton, a rookie, has gotten rave reviews for his unique sinker, which many say they've never seen from a left handed starter.  He could undoubtedly be a star for years to come.  However, unless you're in a keeper league, you're not playing for years to come,  you're only playing for this year.  And if that's the case, Britton might be a stayaway pitcher (or trade bait, if you've already have him).  Britton is striking out less than 6 people per 9, and is walking over 3.5 per 9.  These are both bad signs.  If you're in a league with an innings cap, like me, the strikeout category is essentially K/9, and you can't afford to give 150 IP to someone who's striking out less than 100 batters, especially if he's going to walk people to boot.  Britton's BABIP against is also low, at .257.  That figures to rise.  Given the fact that he's going to be seeing a lot of the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, and that he could still return to the minors (where he started the season before injuries forced the Orioles to recall him), Britton isn't someone I'd invest significant resources into if I were in a year-by-year league.

Recommendation - STAY AWAY/SELL IF POSSIBLE