Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Chris Paul (PG). If we’re going to judge players for what did in their last game, then we’re going to fade the hell out of every Sun on earth. The Clippers beat Phoenix a couple of days ago, and neither of CP3 nor Book were plenty great. Paul was the worse play of the two, and he finished with a measly 27 FP on the day even though he logged 32 minutes on the court. It was the worst game of Paul since Mar. 28. Now, hear me out. The Clips are no joke. The Wizards, too bad for them, are actually a joke. And the best thing about Paul stinker on Thursday is that his price has gone down a bit. Betting on Booker looks like a great play for tonight’s slate too, but Chris comes cheaper and has the same if not even more upside. I mean, we’re talking about a guy who had put up four games straight of 45+ DKFP, including a 48-FP performance against Utah this very week. Paul—literally—never gets old.
- Hate: Bradley Beal (SG). Brad handed Washington its bread yesterday and was the man of the minute when it comes to finishing Golden State thanks to a 6-points-in-6-seconds effort yesterday. Yes, that means Beal is playing the second leg of a back-to-back, against the tough mofos from Phoenix, and getting on a basketball court for the third time since coming back from injury just four nights ago. Beal has not been that bad in his last three games but he’s been far from a valuable play considering his outcomes (30, 39, and 30 FP) and salaries ($9.2K+). The points and the shooting are there, but the boards are not and the dimes aren’t mindblowing. At the end of the day, Brad is a scorer, full stop. So it’s either a 40+ pop night for him or his value goes south in a hurry. Not liking his chances in the second leg of a back-to-back, much less against the Suns.
- Love: Chris Boucher (C). You tell me how many centers are hitting 1.5+ three-pointers nightly this season. Clock’s ticking, mate. Alright, here we go: five, that’s the correct answer, Bouch among them. Chris has been a pine-rider for the Raps all year long, only he’s starting these days with four consecutive starts for the Tampa Bay Conquerors. Not that this man needs any sort of extended run to excel, though, as prior to those last four matches he was already averaging a ridiculous 1.15 FP/min, way above league-average (0.90) and on par with the marks of Ben Simmons, Devin Booker, Pacal Siakam, or Tobias Harris, just to name a few. The last time we saw Boucher, on Thrusday against Chicago, he went bonkers and murdered the Bulls to the tune of a 38-19-1-1-1 line hitting 3 treys while at it in 36 minutes of playing time. The 70 FP were by far the most he’s gotten in a single game this season, and although that might not hold for another night, Bouch is still wildly underpriced and projecting as one of the greatest values of the slate. Also, Cleveland.
- Hate: Tobias Harris (SF/PF). Even with Embiid tagged as questionable and most probably resting on the second leg of a back-to-back for Philly, I don’t fully trust Tobi taking on the heavy load tonight. He will, obviously, because only he and Simmons are the viable players in the Sixers roster, but with OKC at the other end I just don’t trust Doc playing both of them for super-large stretches of time, even less in the situation the squad is in tonight. Simmons has been horrid for fantasy players of late, but the truth is that Tobi hasn’t really been anything otherworldly himself. Only Benny’s stinkers have prevented our eyes from catching Tobi’s hurting outings, actually. Harris’ last six games have fallen below 40-FP five times, and in two of them he didn’t even top 31 FP... He played 15 minutes against Cleveland and 27 against Memphis. What I mean is, I’d rather look other ways if I’d go pony up $8K+ on someone today.
- Love: Andre Drummond (C). Even if he just stays right there standing in the paint without doing anything—pretty much what he’s done for a career, if we’re honest—Dru will rack up fantasy points. I mean, who the Lakers are going to target on offense other than Drummond? LOL. Just a couple of days ago against the mighty Heat, and playing 27 minutes, Dru already put up an effortless 15-12 dub-dub to go with 3 dimes and a couple of thefts. It’s just so easy for him to drop double-digit lines nightly, and no matter how valuable that is for real-life GMs and franchises, it’s always tasty for us fantasy nuts. In his early-season Cavs days, Drummond played 25 total games for Cleveland and 22 logging 20+ minutes on the court. He dub-dubbed in 18 of those, precisely as he did against Miami two nights ago. A true lock for a double-cheeseburger, today and in every slate of games until LBJ/AD are back.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 14 (Mar. 29 to Apr. 4)
- While Nikola Jokic has stayed on top of his game this past week, the truth is that he has been way below the levels of performance showed by your one-and-only true Fantasy Murderer: Russell Westbrook. Russ, as he has come to be known, is a trip-dub machine, and his line from the past week shows. With an average of 25-13-13-1 in four games played, no one was better than Westbrook and his 67 FP/G during the past seven days.
- Not only was Russ the best on a per-game basis, but he also lapped the field on efficiency terms with a masterful 1.74 FP/min, followed by Giannis at a lowly 1.60 in comparison. Oh, and Westbrook was able to keep up that mindblowing mark even though he logged 38 MPG in those four matches. Insane production, that one.
- Of the six players (Kyrie, Curry, Jrue, Giannis, KAT, Russ) to average 50+ FP/G this past week, Westbrook was the one with the wildest variation in his scores at 20 (!!!) FP. That is explained by his ridiculous 94-FP outing against Indiana on Mar. 29 compared to his other “lower” performances of 70, 50, and 52 FP. Steph was the most stable player with a variation just below 4 FP per game (3PG), with Kyrie sitting in third place (6 FP of variation on 4 GP).
- For the second time in a row, Russ was the lone player to average a trip-dub on a full week thanks to his 25-13-13 line. Nikola Jokic (17-9-9) was the closest to reaching that line among those who missed, with no other players remarkably close to doing it.
- Silly cheap values: James Johnson, Terence Davis, Hartenstein, Saric, Payne, Kira, Cory Joseph, Bane, Neto, Robin Lopez, RJ Hampton, Valentine, McLaughlin, Melton
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Trent Jr., Diallo, Olynyk, Poeltl, Gay, Duncan Robinson, Satoransky, Wendell Carter Jr., Draymond Green, Anunoby, Brunson
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Jokic, Sabonis, Trae, Fox, Mitchell, Simmons, Tobias, Wood, LaVine, Middleton, Porzingis
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): James Johnson, Saric, Gay, Melton, Kennard, Terence Davis, Neto, Robin, Kira, McDermott, Patrick Williams, Bullock, Joseph
- Cheap threes: Melton, Terence Davis, Bullock, Grayson, Kennard, Patty Mills, Finney-Smith, Forbes, James Johnson, Saric, McDermott, Cam Johnson, Gay
- Cheap boards: Avdija, Hartenstein, Zeller, Tony Bradley, Kleber, Finney-Smith, Claxton, Iggy, Bane, Okongwu, KCP, Gay, Robin Lopez, Taj Gibson
- Cheap dimes: Cory Joseph, Cam Payne, Tyus Jones, McLaughlin, Saben Lee, Ty Jerome, D.J. Augustin, James Jonshon, Elfryd, Kira, Wanamaker
- Cheap steals: Justin Holiday, Cory Joseph, McLaughlin, Melton, Cody Martin, Bazemore, James Johnson, Flynn, Jerome Robinson, Torrey Craig, Korkmaz, Gay
- Cheap blocks: James Johnson, Taj Gibson, Jerome Robinson, Hartenstein, Theis, Biyombo, Robin Lopez, Gasol, Claxton, Stewart
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Robin Lopez, Saric, Patrick Williams, Neto, James Johnson, Melton, Terence Davis, Bullock, Kennard, Bane
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!