Welp, if you didn’t have the Padres last night, I’m assuming it was a lost event for you. Slam Diego scored a franchise record 24 runs against Erick Fedde and six Nationals relievers, putting the NL West on notice. Except, the Giants and Dodgers also won, so that’s shaping up to be a hell of a race.
The Blue Jays again scored 10 runs...it’s lazy to tout them every day, but you could if you wanted to do so. Today they are only on the 3pm three-game slate, though. The Dodgers scored 10 runs at Coors Field...huge surprise there, but not a team I played much. Anyone else hate Coors slates?
Anyway, we get Coors again today, and it’s a mammoth 12-run total. The Dodgers’ IRT is 7.57 against LHP Kyle Freeland. HOLY smokes. We’ll have to decipher what to do what that one.
Best play: RHP Brandon Woodruff @ Cincinnati Reds ($10,200)
He’s $200 more than Gerrit Cole, who is coming off of a complete game 50-burger of a DK effort. Cole has to command more ownership...right? These are the only two ace-types that I see today—I’m not counting Lucas Giolito against Houston as an elite option.
The Reds strike out a bit less (22.9%) than the Red Sox (23.8%) against RHP, but Boston is more powerful (.187 ISO to .173) and they run more (30 stolen bases against just 17). There seem to be more pathways for success there. Woodruff is more favored despite being on the road, for instance. Woodruff has also been more consistent, with a 2.06 ERA against Cole’s 2.68 mark. I know, splitting hairs. Both of these guys are elite. But in the ownership game, my lean is towards Woodruff if paying up today.
Worst play: LHP Blake Snell @ Washington Nationals ($7,000)
Yep, it’s a friendly price. Maybe even one that pays off. But Snell isn’t a guy who has a ceiling based on pitch count/innings pitched, and that’s something I factor in. Maybe even too heavily, as I faded Lance McCullers Jr. yesterday. Anyway, Snell could maybe clunk his way into five innings and a junky win based on the might of the Padres offense...but his strikeout numbers have been pedestrian for the bulk of the season and Juan Soto appears to finally be heating up. Snell is also coming off of a skipped turn due to illness just prior to the ASB, so he could be even more limited than normal. He could also be rusty after a 13-day layoff. Too many angles where I can slice this as a negative. I’ll be staying away.
Best play: San Diego Padres @ LHP Patrick Corbin
It’s not every night we can get the Padres coming off of a 24-run affair and they might not be the most-owned team on the slate. The Dodgers’ 7.19 implied run total against Kyle Freeland in Colorado might be just the smokescreen we need. You can have the entire Padres outfield for less than 4K apiece, and that should let you squeeze in the big Slam Diego bats of your choosing.
Patrick Corbin is a guy I love to pick on, though he’s admittedly been frustrating this season, pitching decently well for stretches of time. Still, giving up a pair of homers to this San Diego team wouldn’t surprise me. It’s also the second turn in a row that he’ll be facing this team, and I’ll give that edge firmly to the bats.
Worst play: New York Mets @ RHP Wil Crowe
Don’t let Crowe’s low price on DK—or his 6.06 ERA—fool you. He’s been tolerable lately, but the price point is low due to not pitching deep into games (likely part of why he’s been tolerable). Crowe has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, for reference. Is he someone to target with an offense still? Absolutely. But his recent run hasn’t been poor. And then there’s the flip side, with the Mets losing Francisco Lindor to a sore right side (following a swing last night). Down Lindor, this doesn’t look like a team I get excited to stack. Maybe the sum of all the parts can justify tonight’s high implied run total. But as for the individual pieces, it’s basically Pete Alonso that I get excited about, and no one else. If you want to go crazy stacking this team up a bunch of different ways, maybe you’ll be the one making tons of dollars tonight...and I’ll salute you.
What stands out to you guys for tonight?