MLB DFS: Best/worst plays for Saturday, May 29th

Last night was pretty frustrating with a ton of weather concerns. Let’s hope today treats us much kinder.

PITCHING

Luis Castillo @ Chicago Cubs ($6,900)

Right now it looks like an 18 MPH wind blowing IN at Wrigley, so you’ll have to make a decision regarding Castillo. For my part, it’s too enticing to NOT have shares of him. Castillo has fared well against Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo historically, holding Bryant to a .190 BA over 21 AB (zero HR) and Rizzo to .192 over 26 AB (zero HR). And Rizzo is banged up right now, anyway. I feel like this is an “obligatory” sort of play, the upside you have to take a shot on. I’d imagine he’s not crazy popular after failing to deliver in his last time out, also at a cheap price point. I’ll have some shares, but I won’t go crazy.

Austin Gomber @ Pittsburgh Pirates ($7,000)

Austin Gomber was superb in his last turn against the Triple-A version of the Mets, allowing two earned runs on only four hits. He struck out eight hitters and managed to log eight innings, all without walking a batter. Free passes were his bane early in the season, but he’s righted the ship recently and has a sparkling 2.97 ERA over his last three starts. He has only three walks in total over 30 ¹⁄₃ innings in May. All seven of his home runs this year have been to right-handed hitters, so “watch out” for Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings, and Erik Gonzalez. Those four have 12 home runs combined all season. So yeah, play Gomber today.

Spencer Turnbull vs. New York Yankees ($7,800)

Frankie Montas and Nathan Eovaldi are also in consideration for me today, but I don’t plan to ignore Spencer Turnbull. I made that mistake with Casey Mize last night, and he managed five innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts. Turnbull is two turns removed from a no-hitter, and hasn’t allowed a home run since April 26th. He’s also pitched at least six innings in each of his last three turns. Opposing starter Deivi Garcia hasn’t been good at Triple-A or in the big leagues this year, so I could see the Tigers actually giving Turnbull a few runs in this one. Besides the park downgrade, the Yankees just haven’t been their typical threatening selves in 2021. Giancarlo did return from the IL last night and went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts, so maybe today is a quality day to lean into Turnbull yet again.

HITTING

We have a couple of seven-inning games today, in MIL/WAS and BAL/CWS. Do with that information what you will, but it’s a buzzkill we can’t freely stack against Matt Harvey with the White Sox.

Don’t ignore KC @ MIN

Ervin Santana of KC should be on a pitch count, so the Twins offense should see a heavy dose of the Royals’ bullpen. The Royals have a middling 4.14 ERA as a bullpen, but the 5.11 BB/9 is the 2nd-worst mark in the league. And they just lost Josh Staumont’s 2.78 ERA to a knee sprain. Mitch Garver ($,4300) is hot as of late and popped a homer last night, albeit against a lefty. If Max Kepler (hamstring) is out today, maybe we get some sneaky leadoff value from Minnesota’s lineup, too.

On the flip side, the Royals have seen a decent bit of the lefty J.A. Happ, highlighted by Hanser Alberto’s .389 BA and two home runs over 18 AB. So maybe Alberto gets the nod for KC today and could be some cheap value at the keystone for just $2,600. Andrew Benintendi has been resurgent so far this year, but he’s at .125 BA over 24 AB in the LvL split against Happ. I still like Beni over Jorge Soler, whose power has been absent this year and who carries a 19 wRC+ against lefty pitching this year. All four of Soler’s bombs have come in the RvR split. I’m off of from him until I see more. I like the four-man KC move with Merrifield, Santana, Sal Perez, and Benintendi.

Rockies against Mitch Keller

I’m confused about the Rockies having an implied 2.75 run total at Pittsburgh against Mitch Keller (7.41 ERA, 1.43 HR/9, 5.02 BB/9). Lots of walks isn’t a recipe for success when you are homer-prone, which Keller has been to begin his MLB career. The Colorado lineup isn’t formidable—especially sans Trevor Story—but Ryan McMahon (10 HR, .255 BA), Raimel Tapia (5 HR, .278 BA), and C.J. Cron (3 HR, .250 BA) have been good enough versus righties thus far to make me consider them. Charlie Blackmon (2 HR, .221 BA) has been less so, but should bat cleanup. I don’t hate this group since the lack of Trevor Story should mean they aren’t popular.

Blue Jays and Padres

The crown jewel today might be the Toronto Blue Jays, who are fresh off of an 11-run drubbing of the Cleveland baseball team yesterday. Cleveland will trot out a sacrificial lamb in the lefty Sam Hentges, who will be making just his fourth career MLB start. Over his 20 ¹⁄₃ innings so far, Hentges has allowed 12 walks (5.31 BB/9) and five homers (2.21 HR/9). Four of five homers are by right-handed bats, and the Blue Jays should trot out nine of them today.

The Padres, too, scored 10 runs last night and catch a returning-from-the-IL Jake Odorizzi. Manny Machado is really familiar with Odorizzi, having seen him for 32 AB, with a .344 BA and three homers. I think he’s worth it as the most expensive third baseman today.

Tommy Pham gets a line all to himself. After a ridiculously slow start to the season, just check his DK points by game over his last eight games: 26.0, 10.0, 10.0, 16.0, 11.0, 15.0, 10.0, and 25.0 (last night). Over that eight-game stretch, he has one homer, a pair of triples, a double, and three stolen bases. He should bat leadoff for San Diego and is a free square at only $3,700.

Who are YOU playing in your lineups today, ladies and gents? Who did I miss in my first pass?