MLB DFS: Best/worst plays for Wednesday, May 26th

It’s a nine-game slate at DraftKings tonight, beginning at 7:05 PM if you live where I live. If you don’t live where I live, adjust accordingly.

WEATHER

It looks like there are some trouble spots today, namely TOR/NYY and COL/NYM. Or i.e., in New York. Those were too early to call at 9:30am (when the majority of this was written) plus I am not a weatherman. So find your favorite weatherperson before tonight’s games and make sure you aren’t taking a zero anywhere.

PITCHING

Here’s a fun exercise in “actual” MLB lineups from Tuesday:

The Phillies, featuring No. 3 hitter, Brad Miller:

The Halos, with Juan Lagares batting cleanup:

Or how about Milwaukee’s two-hole hitter, Daniel Vogelbach?

And I can’t even waste words on this Pirates lineup:

Full disclosure: the Angels did manage 11 runs last night. But you can’t expect that as a norm. I’ve also been on this “narrow” lineup binge lately—I named Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani yesterday, and both homered. I also played a narrow Mets stack that fared pretty well.

Anyway, of the above teams, only the Brewers are on tonight’s slate. Chris Paddack gets that goodness. I’m into it for only $7,700, too. I expected Paddack to at least be pushing towards $8,500. Paddack managed 24.5 DK points in his last turn, hurling six innings for the first time all year. He’s in a great spot to keep it going. Against right-handers, Milwaukee’s 26.6% strikeout rate is third-worst in the league. Their .143 ISO (24th) and .282 wOBA (30th) aren’t threatening. And only the Rockies have a lower wRC+, with MIL checking in at 77 and Colorado at 67.

All that said, it’ll be tough to lock Paddack in fully. German Marquez is stupidly underpriced at only $6,700, on the road against the depleted Mets team. Marquez’s last three games in DK points: 31.6, 18.9, 18.9. And the first two of those were at Coors. Now he’s at Citi Field? Here are Marquez’s home/away splits for his career:

I guess I’ll have money to pay up for hitting today.

Lastly, I think you have to consider Marcus Stroman against the Rockies. Colorado managed one run last night, and deGrom only went five innings. That’s the sort of output we’ve come to expect from that unit when they hit the road. Stroman is coming off of one of his best turns of 2021—he went six innings versus the Marlins with eight strikeouts and only two runs allowed. These Rockies hitters haven’t seen him much, either—CJ Cron has the most at-bats against him, at only 11. And he’s batting .091.

Hitting

The Red Sox get a quality matchup in the lefty Drew Smyly. He’s been pretty bad against both handedness of hitter, as even lefties make a ton of hard contact against him. Lefty bats also strike out at a 35.0% rate, though. It’s righties we really want, with the 16.0% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, and eight of 11 home runs allowed by Smyly. The Sox have those in spades, but I will likely leave Christian Vazquez off as much as possible given that he has been struggling against southpaws this year (.227/.277/.341, 25.5% K-rate).

In the same game, I remain on the “Austin Riley is too cheap” refrain. With the injury to Marcell Ozuna, he’s now batting cleanup for only $4,000. He’s got more hard contact and seven of his nine home runs against right-handed pitching, as well as a 12.7% walk rate.

Who are YOU playing in your lineups tonight, ladies and gents?