Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at Fake Teams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Rudy Gobert (C). Hear me out. You don’t fade a monster of a man tagged at just $8.2K while projecting to a silly 45 DKFP against the Tanking Thunder. Yes, I know that last bit of information could actually work against Jazz players, but hey, it’s not that Phoenix isn’t out there pressing for that no. 1 seed. Rudy Gobert aka The Croissant aka The Walking Double aka French Fry came back to his senses a couple of days ago when he once again hit 47+ FP against Portland with a sound 15-20-2-1-1 stuffed dub-dub. He hadn’t been terrible prior to that (34, 39, and 31 FP) still returning some value given his moderate prices, but this is a steal today, believe me. The Thunder already faced Gob back a month ago and all the Frenchie did was racking up 48+ FP to the tune of a 13-14-1-1-7 line. That’s 7 blocks, yes.
- Hate: Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C). It’s virtually impossible to write this post nowadays with every single team going different routes and making the resting/playing decisions in completely opposite ways. What is not changing, though, is the fact that KP stinks. Sorry, Mavs fans. Congrats, Knickerbockers! Porzingis was out for a while and he came back on Wednesday to face New Orleans, playing 22 minutes of 19-5-1-1 basketball. I mean, that’s not bad, and the per-minute production was good, but the 29 DKFP overall were putrid as hell. What I’m saying is that you’re not going to like paying $8.5K+ for a mofo that will hand you maybe 35 fantasy points, if all things go right for him and all stars align. Not in this world. Not in my world, at least.
- Love: Kelly Olynyk (PF/C). Feels good getting back to my comfy plays. There is nothing to hate about Kelly Olynyk, much less since he became a Rock and all he does is racking up numbers nightly for a barren squad. Olynyk is facing the Clips tonight, and the Clips aren’t really playing for a lot with the no. 3 seed pretty much their destiny come Monday. Anyway. Olynyk is a beast, folks. It’s been five games in a row for him reaching at least 43 FP, he’s scored 17+ in all of those, and as stupid as it sounds his minutes have gone from 31 to 29 to 25 in the past three games yet somehow he has scored 23, 21, and lastly 24 points (including 4 treys, the first time in more than a month) in that span. The dub-dubs stopped two games ago, sure, but he’s always there threatening to get them, and the line in the past five reads 23-9-7-2-1. MVP-level numbers, don’t @ me.
- Hate: Joel Embiid (C). What am I supposed to love about this play? The Sixers are going to hold onto the no. 1 seed out East. Philly played yesterday so this marks the second leg of a back-to-back in terms of playing nights. Embiid has alternated 33+ minute games with as many below 25 rounds of the clock. He’s been efficient as ever even hitting 63 FP against the Pels a week ago, but man, this feels too risky to pony up his monster salary. Just peep at yesterday’s performance: 25 minutes, 6-2-1-2 line, 33% on 9 FGA, no freebies... I don’t know. JoJo is thinking big and Philly is not going to put him in any danger with two games to go and the postseason so close. Not liking this thing at all.
- Love: Kevin Love (PF/C). Absolute flier of a play, this one. K-Love put up Minny-years numbers against Boston last Wednesday, and that I can’t pass on. I mean, that was a true vintage performance by Kev: 30-14 dub-dub, 6 triples shooting 62.5% from the floor on 16 FGA, a true shooting percentage of 84.5, 4-for-4 on freebies, and 3 dimes + 2 steals just in case you weren’t happy. The salary is ridiculously low for that 60-FP ceiling, but it is also rather dumb for his 30-FP floor. Even on a dud-labeled day, Love will return value no matter what. Definitely the last-spot filler you want in your lineup tonight facing the All-O/No-D Wiz.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 20 (May. 3 to May. 9)
- Is there any point in updating this section every Monday anymore? A month a half, brothers and sisters. A month and a half of weeks—six, that is—with Russ leading all fantasy players in DK daily slates. It’s just insane. Russell Westbrook closed last week averaging a ridiculously high 78 FPG, which is 15 more fantasy points than the second-best player of the week. Say what!? 22-17-18-1 line on the week through 4 GP and 42 MPG. Bananas.
- Domantas Sabonis put up 63 DKFP while Steph Curry wrapped it up at 60 FP, the only two other players reaching that mark. Too bad for them, none hit the trip-dub average on the week as Dom fell 0.2 APG short of it. Cold world.
- Obviously, nobody was going to beat Russ on a per-minute basis even though he logged the highest MPG mark of the week. That’s what happens when you average a freaking 78 FPG... Russ led all players with a 1.88 FP/min with Curry second at 1.78 and Embiid third down with 1.71.
- Only Russ put up a week-long trip-dub. What a surprise. Sabonis Jr. finished close with a 27-13-9 line, followed by Draymond’s 9-9-11. No other player came even remotely close to pulling the feat off.
- Silly cheap values: Kenyon Martin Jr., Diallo, Dwight Powell, Gallinari, Hayes, Brooks, Vanderbilt, Bane, DaQuan Jeffries, Rivers, Mykhailiuk, Campazzo, Kenrich Williams, Hampton, Seth Curry, DiVincenzo, Moe Harkless
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Delon Wright, Kelly Olynyk, Fournier, Mo Bamba, Bledsoe, Hardaway Jr., Hachimura, VanVleet, Tate
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Luka, KAT, AD, Tatum, Randle, LaVine, Paul George, Adebayo, Gobert, Booker, Kawhi, Middleton, Capela, DeRozan, Ingram, KPJr., Dejounte Murray
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Brooks, Okoro, Seth, Niang, Rivers, Ariza, Bane, Caruso, Hayes, Payne, Lamb, Forbes, Bertans, Svi, Poole, KCP, Moe, Mulder
- Cheap threes: Brooks, Niang, Mulder, Seth, Rivers, Forbes, Danny Green, Bertans, Lamb, Bane, McLemore
- Cheap boards: Howard, Kanter, Dwight Powell, Clarke, Vanderbilt, Biyombo, Looney, Hayes, Reid, Zeller, Gillespie, Connaughton, Gibson, Cauley-Stein
- Cheap dimes: Rondo, Satoransky, Caruso, Saben Lee, Seth, Dwight Powell, Wanamaker, Aaron Holiday, Maxey, Brooks, Rivers, Monk
- Cheap steals: Vanderbilt, Thybulle, Danny Green, Rivers, Brooks, DaQuan Jeffries, Svi, Bembry, Thornwell, Ariza, CarusoDeck, Moe, Patrick Williams
- Cheap blocks: Hayes, Taj, Dwight Powell, Bitadze, Thybulle, Damian Jones, Gafford, Biyombo, Justin Holiday, Rudy Gay, Robin Lopez, Vanderbilt, Cauley-Stein
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Hayes, Forbes, Seth, Reid, McDermott, Nian, DaQuan, Moe, Rivers, Brooks, Aaron Holiday
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!