Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at Fake Teams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Pascal Siakam (PF/C). I’m sorry to disappoint you by picking Pascal as the top-play of the day for the second post in a row, but here we are. The algorithm must be asleep because he’s not catching up at all with Siakam’s exploits. The salary isn’t literally low, obviously, but it’s far from the $10K Pascal deserves. Siakam’s last three games: 71, 40, and 71 FP. He comes off a career-high scoring match with 44 pops against Washington on Thursday. He has dub-dubbed in two of the last three averaging 40 MPG and a silly 36-10-4-2 while shooting 53% on a monster 26 FGA! The turnovers have sat at 4 in each of those three, sure, but this man is closing the year on a scorching hot run, and although Toronto is cooked and out of the playoffs he has everything to keep thriving.
- Hate: Kelly Olynyk (C). I am Kelly-O’s No. 1 stan. With that out of the way, let me tell you that this man has been unstoppable of late (48, 63, and 54 DKFP in the last three) but that on the year Kelly has been a putrid play against Utah. In three games against the Jazz, starting all of them and playing almost 30 MPG, all Olynyk has done facing the stiff Gobert has been finishing with 24, 16, and 19 FP. Ugh. The average line he got was down to a paltry 8-7-1. I’m sorry, folks, but I’m just not going to pony up $8.5K+ for a guy that hasn’t even averaged 20 DKFP in his matchups against Utah. I’m all in for Houston re-inking the biggie boy to pair him with Wood next season and going forward, and if that’s not the case I hope he lands in a good situation as a free agent, but I just can’t like Kelly tonight.
- Love: Caris LeVert (SG). I just checked the Wiz last few games out of curiosity. They have allowed opponents to score 129, 135, 141 (Indiana last Monday), and 125 in their last four games. That’s absolutely insane. LeVert had a little bit of a stinker on the first leg of back-to-back games on Wednesday, but prior to that he put up 52 DKFP against these very same Wiz (33-7-5-0-2 line) and he rebounded from that dud with a season-high 63 FP facing Atlanta a couple of nights ago: 31-3-12-2-3 dub-dub in 41 (!) minutes played. You tell me how that’s something to hate. LeVert has reached 42+ DKFP in four of his past five games getting back to Apr. 29, and even on that bad outing against Sacto he still put up a relatively nice 14-3-3-1 line on a putrid 28% shooting that is obviously a freakish outlier number. This is a key game between the two play-in foes out East, so you know this will be a high-stakes one for everybody involved.
- Hate: Michael Porter Jr. (SF/PF). Okay, hear me out. MPJ has been ridiculous in the past couple of weeks. Like, absolutely molly-bonkers. He’s averaging 42+ DKFP per game in the last nine games. And that is taking his 28 and 30 FP games against LAL and NYK this very week. He just doesn’t know how to score fewer than 20 points, hit 3 triples, or pull down his customary 6 boards. That’s all cool, but does Denver want Porter to put on maximum effort? MPJ, or Jokic, or whoever for that matter, I mean. Denver is in a glorious position when it comes to the postseason. They are fourth in the standings and locked into a first-round home advantage. It is up to them to win and face Portland, or stay at no. 4 and face Dallas—as things stand today. Denver can basically go all-in, or do nothing. The risks in playing any Nugs player ROS are quite high depending on how they opt to approach the remaining games, or if they just go the load-management route. Not liking the situation.
- Love: Draymond Green (PF/C). If there is a team Dray can feed on, that’s the Tanking Thunder. Green is not your casual fantasy play, let alone your average basketball player. This guy is averaging some ridiculous 6-7-8-1-1 line on the year. He’s shooting fewer than 6 FGA per game and 1.9 of those are coming from beyond the three-point line. His usage rate is down at 12.7%. Nothing makes sense with Green, seriously. The most stupid thing, though, is that he somehow has dub-dubbed here and there (not on points, but on rebounds and dimes) and he’s also got two triple-doubles in the past month which is straight dumb. Most fantasy folks out there will be scared after Thursday’s outing against the Thunder in which he finished with just 30 FP, but the truth is that he put up a near-dub-dub with a 5-9-9 line. Odds are he hits double-digit marks on those latter-two cats for a bulkier score. Oh, and GSW is fighting for the chance of defeating LeBron and the Lakers in the play-in (LOL).
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 19 (Apr. 26 to May. 2)
- This is getting boring. LOL. One month straight getting the No. 1 DK spot wasn’t enough for Russell Westbrook, who has now five consecutive weeks at the top of the leaderboard. That’s bonkers. Russ did it to the tune of a 65 DKFP average on four games played in the past seven days, putting up a 24-13-12 trip-dub on a monster 39 MPG.
- Tatum (62), the only other player to break the 60-FP barrier did it on just 3 GP, which takes a bit from him. Luka finished third with 59 FPG on a heavier dose of play on 4 GP and a 31-8-10 dub-dub.
- On a per-minute basis, Giannis was on a league of his own posting a ridiculously efficient 2.75 FP/min mark. Nobody came even remotely close, with Jokic sliding in no. 2 (1.67) followed by Russ and Luka (both at 1.65).
- Russ was the only player good enough to post a week-trip-dub, although Doncic came close along with Dejounte Murray (!) and Lonzo Ball (!!).
- Silly cheap values: Alize Johnson, Mychal Mulder, Frank Jackson, Juan Hernangomez, McDermott, Rondo, Nesmith, Anfernee, Aaron Holiday, Ty Jerome, Cam Payne, Forbes
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Oshae Brissett, Lonzo, Dejounte, Bey, Tim Hardaway Jr., Birch, Olynyk, Thadd Young, Lowry, Mikal Bridges, DeRozan
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Giannis, Embiid, Beal, Paul George, Kyrie, Capela, Gobert, Ingram, Morant, McCollum, Jrue, Garland, Rozier, Simmons, John Collins, Tobias
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Frank Jackson, McDermott, Mulder, Forbes, Lonnie, Rudy Gay, Melo, Juan Hernangomez, Seth Curry, Ty Jerome, Okoro
- Cheap threes: Mulder, Forbes, Seth, Anfernee, Frank Jackson, Nian, Juan Hernangomez, Ty Jerome, Shamet
- Cheap boards: Alize Johnson, Willy, Dwight, Theis, Favors, DJ Wilson, Dedmon, Markkanen, Len, Vanderbilt, Gafford, Deck, Clarke
- Cheap dimes: Rondo, Mike James, Aaron Holiday, Gary Harris, Flynn, Ish, THT, Goodwin, Saben Lee, Ty Jerome, Temple, Looney, Poole
- Cheap steals: Cody Martin, JTA, Rivers, Thybulle, Clarke, Connaughton, Willy, Burke, Rondo
- Cheap blocks: Biyombo, Craig, JTA, Reed, Thybulle, Melton, Tony Bradley, Mo Wagner, Brimah, Dwight, Naz Reid, Gafford
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): McDermott, Melo, Tye Jerome, Juan Hernangomez, Mulder, Forbes, Theis, Naz Reid, Seth, Gay, Kenyon Martin Jr., Frank Jackson, Quickley, Rondo
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!