Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at Fake Teams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Chris Paul (PG). It came down to Book or CP, but the cheaper player ended winning the race. Oh, and the truth is that Paul has actually been the better play of late. The vet has strung three games hitting 42+ FP with his last one a couple of days ago against GSW ending with him reaching 48 FP. Not bad for a 53-year-old guy, was it? Phoenix will have it hard to get to the no. 1 seed as they need to finish 2-0 with Utah losing out 0-2, but there’s still a chance. Paul will most probably keep playing his 30+ minutes per game, is über-efficient with an average of 1.37 FP/min mark in May, and he’s averaged a spicy 18-4-10-1 dub-dub in the past three. Can’t get much better than that. Portland is win-needy, but that’s pretty much what 75% of the league finds itself at with a couple of games to go, so it’s not that that will change my views. Also, don’t get it wrong: Portland has the sixth-worst fantasy D of the season.
- Hate: Khris Middleton (SF). I have been writing for a while in this column about how risky of a play Khris Midd is these days. The Bucks had a chance at edging Brooklyn for the no. 2 seed, and they still can do it, but it always seemed a little bit out of the true realm of possibilities to me. With three games to go for Milly and two for BKN, it would take a 2-0 and 0-2 respectively for that flip to happen in the standings. I don’t think there is any way Milly risks and thing when it comes to their best players gearing up for the playoffs. Middleton has gone from 36 minutes played to 32, 32, and lately 29 in his last outing against Orlando two days ago. Just not cutting it, folks. The line was putrid facing the Magic, with K-Midd closing that game at a paltry 27 FP translated from an 11-7-5 shooting 20% on 15 FGA. Yikes.
- Love: Trae Young (PG). Second night in a row I tell you to play Trae. It makes sense, considering what he comes off doing to the Wiz less than 24 hours ago when he had a silly third-consecutive 52+ FP performance with a 33-8-9 line going 7-for-7 from the free-throw line. In fact, Trae has hit all of his freebies going back to Apr. 21 while attempting a healthy 69 total in the 8 games he’s played since then. No joke. On top of that, Young has scored 30+ points in three straight, is dishing out dimes almost on double-digit numbers nightly these days, and the boards are also at season-high levels. Young’s salary, though, isn’t getting past any unreasonable bar for some reason, because the algorithm is a little dumb. Take advantage while it last, and rest easy Atlanta will run with Trae for large minutes as they try to close the regular season in possession of that no. 4 seed.
- Hate: Tobias Harris (SF/PF). Remember when Tobias was a thing? Uh... it’s been like two months since that was the thing going on, as Harris has incredibly dropped his game level from April on. Tobi was averaging 40 FP to start the year, but since April he’s down to just 30, and although Philly has made its season a squad-effort one and it’s working for them overall, that has not benefited any of Embiid, Simmons, or Tobi in the fantasy game. Tobi hasn’t reached 40 DKFP in the last 11 games going all the way back to Apr. 14 and that won’t change now with everything already decided and locked-into-position teams resting bodies in advance of the postseason. Tobi’s had five games in the last seven-game span falling below the 32-FP mark... although he’s playing as many as 30+ MPG in those matches. Not liking this one, even less against a tough-as-nails Heat team.
- Love: Jusuf Nurkic (C). Very cheap, very tasty (potential) winning play this one. Nurk has been good since finally getting back from injury for the Blazers and replacing Enes Kanter in the starting lineup since Mar. 26. It took him a while to gear up, but Nurk is at max speed already with five consecutive games getting into the top-50 plays of his slates, including four top-22 finishes with at least 37+ FP in those. In his most recent two games, against HOU and UTA, Nurk has reached 44 and 54 (!) DKFP with lines reading 22-6-5-3-1 and 11-15-6-3-4. This man is just basically doing it on all fronts. Even while shooting a ridiculously putrid 21% from the floor yesterday, he still reached that 54-FP mark. Insane. Expect a positive rebound in that front, which means we could be talking about a 60-FP burger. Oh, lord.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 20 (May. 3 to May. 9)
- Is there any point in updating this section every Monday anymore? A month a half, brothers and sisters. A month and a half of weeks—six, that is—with Russ leading all fantasy players in DK daily slates. It’s just insane. Russell Westbrook closed last week averaging a ridiculously high 78 FPG, which is 15 more fantasy points than the second-best player of the week. Say what!? 22-17-18-1 line on the week through 4 GP and 42 MPG. Bananas.
- Domantas Sabonis put up 63 DKFP while Steph Curry wrapped it up at 60 FP, the only two other players reaching that mark. Too bad for them, none hit the trip-dub average on the week as Dom fell 0.2 APG short of it. Cold world.
- Obviously, nobody was going to beat Russ on a per-minute basis even though he logged the highest MPG mark of the week. That’s what happens when you average a freaking 78 FPG... Russ led all players with a 1.88 FP/min with Curry second at 1.78 and Embiid third down with 1.71.
- Only Russ put up a week-long trip-dub. What a surprise. Sabonis Jr. finished close with a 27-13-9 line, followed by Draymond’s 9-9-11. No other player came even remotely close to pulling the feat off.
- Silly cheap values: Kenyon Martin Jr., Diallo, Dwight Powell, Gallinari, Hayes, Brooks, Vanderbilt, Bane, DaQuan Jeffries, Rivers, Mykhailiuk, Campazzo, Kenrich Williams, Hampton, Seth Curry, DiVincenzo, Moe Harkless
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Delon Wright, Kelly Olynyk, Fournier, Mo Bamba, Bledsoe, Hardaway Jr., Hachimura, VanVleet, Tate
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Luka, KAT, AD, Tatum, Randle, LaVine, Paul George, Adebayo, Gobert, Booker, Kawhi, Middleton, Capela, DeRozan, Ingram, KPJr., Dejounte Murray
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Brooks, Okoro, Seth, Niang, Rivers, Ariza, Bane, Caruso, Hayes, Payne, Lamb, Forbes, Bertans, Svi, Poole, KCP, Moe, Mulder
- Cheap threes: Brooks, Niang, Mulder, Seth, Rivers, Forbes, Danny Green, Bertans, Lamb, Bane, McLemore
- Cheap boards: Howard, Kanter, Dwight Powell, Clarke, Vanderbilt, Biyombo, Looney, Hayes, Reid, Zeller, Gillespie, Connaughton, Gibson, Cauley-Stein
- Cheap dimes: Rondo, Satoransky, Caruso, Saben Lee, Seth, Dwight Powell, Wanamaker, Aaron Holiday, Maxey, Brooks, Rivers, Monk
- Cheap steals: Vanderbilt, Thybulle, Danny Green, Rivers, Brooks, DaQuan Jeffries, Svi, Bembry, Thornwell, Ariza, CarusoDeck, Moe, Patrick Williams
- Cheap blocks: Hayes, Taj, Dwight Powell, Bitadze, Thybulle, Damian Jones, Gafford, Biyombo, Justin Holiday, Rudy Gay, Robin Lopez, Vanderbilt, Cauley-Stein
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Hayes, Forbes, Seth, Reid, McDermott, Nian, DaQuan, Moe, Rivers, Brooks, Aaron Holiday
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!