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Which MLB teams start strong historically?

Mining for solid fantasy baseball wavier adds from teams that traditionally start the year strong, in terms of home runs and total runs.

Getty Images/Pete Rogers Illustrations

Are you trying to predict how the first 10 games of the 2021 MLB season will play out? Me too!

I have quite a few injured players on my fantasy baseball team to start the season, and need to maximize my “fillers” until they are healthy. One way I’ve looked into do this was finding out how ball park factors accounted into the upcoming schedule.

Another way is to pull how teams did “X number of games” into the last two seasons in terms of home runs and total runs. This doesn’t give any kind of nod to a specific player and assuredly teams change with coaches and players moving—but it can help give you a starting point of which teams to look for players. Also, as you will note, some have been built to excel out of the gate and others…have not.

Here are my biggest takeaways:

The Good

Between either a favorable schedule or historic strong offensive starts, I would recommend:

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Philadelphia Phillies
  4. Seattle Mariners
  5. Oakland Athletics

The Bad

On the other side, there are historically rough offensive starts from these programs:

  1. Cleveland
  2. Detroit Tigers
  3. Los Angeles Angels
  4. San Francisco Giants
  5. Toronto Blue Jays

Here is the full data for all MLB teams over the last two years. Enjoy!

MLB First 10 Games Last Two Years

Team (best 30, worst 1) 2019 HR Rank 2020 HR Rank Average HR Rank 2019 Runs Rank 2020 Runs Rank Average Run Rank
Team (best 30, worst 1) 2019 HR Rank 2020 HR Rank Average HR Rank 2019 Runs Rank 2020 Runs Rank Average Run Rank
ARI 26 13 20 26 26 26
ATL 13 15 14 22 25 25
BAL 10 12 11 17 19 19
BOS 10 9 10 21 21 21
CHC 25 27 26 23 23 23
CHW 13 18 16 13 15 15
CIN 17 23 20 1 1 1
CLE 5 2 4 3 2 2
COL 2 1 2 3 11 11
DET 1 2 2 3 5 5
HOU 13 18 16 2 8 8
KCR 4 7 6 19 16 16
LAA 8 9 9 3 6 6
LAD 29 30 30 29 30 30
MIA 12 13 13 13 10 10
MIL 26 22 24 15 12 12
MIN 18 25 22 11 16 16
NYM 20 15 18 24 23 23
NYY 28 29 29 15 20 20
OAK 20 21 21 26 28 28
PHI 23 28 26 25 27 27
PIT 5 5 5 8 4 4
SDP 13 15 14 10 13 13
SEA 29 26 28 30 29 29
SFG 2 2 2 3 8 8
STL 22 18 20 19 3 3
TBR 5 5 5 9 18 18
TEX 18 9 14 28 22 22
TOR 8 8 8 11 6 6
WSN 23 24 24 17 14 14