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Heath’s NFL DFS plays for Week 1

Heath gives his average NFL DFS takes for Week 1.

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Like my (somewhat) daily Streamer Report, this post is not meant to be an epic. No preamble means we can get down and dirty a whole lot quicker. Let’s do this.

Julio Jones wins against Xavier Rhodes

I’ll take all the Julio Jones today, if you all are scared off by Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes was admittedly banged up a year ago, but he also posted the worst PFF grade of his career and he was bested by the likes of star receivers Davante Adams and Brandin Cooks. He shut plenty of other guys down, namely Alshon Jeffery, Allen Robinson, and Kenny Golladay...but none of those guys are Julio, and none of those guys have a quarterback with the skill set of Matt Ryan. I like the Julio Jones-Dalvin Cook correlation play today, as the Falcons are well-advertised as allowing gobs of receptions to opposing running backs.

Fade Cooper Kupp off the torn ACL

Kupp tore his ACL in Week 10 a year ago and did not see game action in the preseason. To me, it is logical to limit his workload by employing more 12 personnel, especially against that nasty Carolina front. I expect Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods to be the guys who dominate snaps today (say, 90+ percent) while Kupp concedes time to Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. Fueling this idea is the youth on the Rams rebuilt offensive line—Sean McVay can still find plenty of mismatches with a pair of tight ends on the field. If you’re stacking Panthers like I am, look to Woods and Cooks instead of Kupp when you run it back.

All the cheap running backs

There is so much soft pricing in Week 1, so just be prepared to play the chalk where you feel like you should play the chalk. I don’t mind doing that with Chris Carson today, as I expect the Seahawks to ESTABLISH THE RUN like they always do. Just expect Carson to be popular:

I don’t care. Rashaad Penny is arguably getting worse, and doesn’t seem like a threat to Carson’s workload. Only Ezekiel Elliott (20.9) averaged more carries than Carson from Week 3 onward a year ago, as Carson tallied 19.5 (shouts to Yahoo for that nugget). Anyway, you can’t talk me out of Carson in Week 1. If he goes down in flames, I don’t even care. I love the play.

I also have interest in Dalvin Cook (all the receptions against ATL) and Matt Breida (low-key starting RB against a shoddy Bucs defense). Those guys are great because you can easily run it back with the receivers of your choosing, resulting in some nice correlation plays. Give me Julio Jones and Mike Evans, please. I really like Breida on FanDuel, where he is stupid-cheap at only $5,400. If the Niners can ESTABLISH THAT RUN it will take the pressure off of the returning Jimmy Garoppolo.

John Brown is a cheap WR3 with upside

Only $5,500 on FanDuel has me interested. Josh Allen loves to throw the ball down the field, and a cursory look at the Jets cornerback depth chart doesn’t scare me away from “Smokey.” The best part of this is, none of Allen’s miscues at QB are going to hurt you. Take a shot already!

I need more Kerryon Johnson in my life

A look at my few lineups this morning tells me I need more Kerryon. Patrick Peterson is the guy that makes that Arizona Cardinals defense tick, and he is suspended for the first six games of the year. The Lions want to run at a slow pace despite having a quality signal-caller in Matthew Stafford (yeah, I said it). Johnson is only $7,000 on FanDuel, and Arizona was 32nd in rush rank a year ago, says my handy FanDuel note. Bolstering the outlook for Johnson is the healthy presence of stud center Frank Ragnow, who played all but one offensive snap for Detroit a year ago in his rookie season. Of course, the absence of Pat Peterson could mean that the Lions open it up via the air a bit more today, but I don’t think so.

These are just some of the guys that stick out to me. Who are you all playing today? Besides the Eagles defense, okay? Give me something else!