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This article was originally published on these pages back on December 16th, and is being posted once again to help you in your 2016 fantasy baseball drafts.
Today's article is a follow up to a similar research piece I wrote in each of the last few offseasons (2015 research is here) where I looked at starting pitchers who threw more than 50 innings the previous year and focused on the following pitching statistics:
- strikeouts per nine innings
- walks per nine innings
- ground ball ratio
I focused on pitchers who struck out more than seven batters and walked three batters or less per nine innings, and induced ground balls at a 45% rate or higher. My research from last year indicated that focusing on high strikeout pitchers yielded the best results in ERA and WHIP. One cannot predict wins, and strikeouts are a skill and increase and decrease based on the number of innings pitched. I think this is common knowledge in the fantasy baseball community, but here I provide the actual results, starting with pitchers who struck out seven or more batters per nine innings:
Pitchers with K/9 > 7.00, BB/9 < 3.00 and GB% > 45%: 2015
Name |
Team |
W |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
WHIP |
SwStr% |
Hard% |
Dallas Keuchel |
20 |
232 |
8.38 |
1.98 |
61.70% |
2.48 |
2.91 |
2.75 |
1.02 |
10.30% |
21.20% |
|
Jake Arrieta |
22 |
229 |
9.28 |
1.89 |
56.20% |
1.77 |
2.35 |
2.61 |
0.86 |
11.10% |
22.20% |
|
Felix Hernandez |
18 |
201.2 |
8.52 |
2.59 |
56.20% |
3.53 |
3.72 |
3.33 |
1.18 |
10.70% |
25.40% |
|
Carlos Martinez |
14 |
174.2 |
9.33 |
2.99 |
54.50% |
3.04 |
3.16 |
3.18 |
1.27 |
10.70% |
26.90% |
|
A.J. Burnett |
9 |
164 |
7.85 |
2.69 |
53.40% |
3.18 |
3.36 |
3.55 |
1.36 |
8.90% |
34.10% |
|
Sonny Gray |
14 |
208 |
7.31 |
2.55 |
52.70% |
2.73 |
3.45 |
3.69 |
1.08 |
9.70% |
25.00% |
|
Nathan Eovaldi |
14 |
154.1 |
7.06 |
2.86 |
52.20% |
4.2 |
3.42 |
3.81 |
1.45 |
8.70% |
28.00% |
|
Kyle Hendricks |
Cubs |
8 |
180 |
8.35 |
2.15 |
51.30% |
3.95 |
3.36 |
3.25 |
1.16 |
8.10% |
25.60% |
Carlos Carrasco |
14 |
183.2 |
10.58 |
2.11 |
51.20% |
3.63 |
2.84 |
2.66 |
1.07 |
14.00% |
27.30% |
|
Hisashi Iwakuma |
Mariners |
9 |
129.2 |
7.7 |
1.46 |
50.40% |
3.54 |
3.74 |
3.27 |
1.06 |
10.60% |
26.10% |
Clayton Kershaw |
16 |
232.2 |
11.64 |
1.62 |
50.00% |
2.13 |
1.99 |
2.09 |
0.88 |
15.90% |
25.10% |
|
Joe Ross |
5 |
73.2 |
8.31 |
2.44 |
49.50% |
3.79 |
3.42 |
3.57 |
1.11 |
11.80% |
29.30% |
|
Jon Lester |
Cubs |
11 |
205 |
9.09 |
2.06 |
48.90% |
3.34 |
2.92 |
3.06 |
1.12 |
10.40% |
29.20% |
David Hale |
3 |
68.1 |
7.38 |
2.5 |
48.40% |
6.06 |
4.7 |
3.97 |
1.48 |
11.10% |
24.00% |
|
Clay Buchholz |
7 |
113.1 |
8.5 |
1.83 |
48.30% |
3.26 |
2.68 |
3.3 |
1.21 |
10.60% |
23.70% |
|
Michael Pineda |
Yankees |
12 |
160.2 |
8.74 |
1.18 |
48.20% |
4.37 |
3.34 |
2.95 |
1.23 |
11.90% |
29.70% |
Zack Greinke |
Dodgers |
19 |
222.2 |
8.08 |
1.62 |
48.00% |
1.66 |
2.76 |
3.22 |
0.84 |
12.00% |
26.60% |
Gerrit Cole |
Pirates |
19 |
208 |
8.74 |
1.9 |
48.00% |
2.6 |
2.66 |
3.16 |
1.09 |
10.20% |
29.50% |
Cole Hamels |
- - - |
13 |
212.1 |
9.11 |
2.63 |
47.70% |
3.65 |
3.47 |
3.4 |
1.19 |
13.30% |
27.00% |
Aaron Nola |
6 |
77.2 |
7.88 |
2.2 |
47.60% |
3.59 |
4.04 |
3.58 |
1.2 |
8.60% |
27.50% |
|
Jose Quintana |
9 |
206.1 |
7.72 |
1.92 |
47.10% |
3.36 |
3.18 |
3.51 |
1.27 |
9.30% |
27.30% |
|
Masahiro Tanaka |
Yankees |
12 |
154 |
8.12 |
1.58 |
47.00% |
3.51 |
3.98 |
3.29 |
0.99 |
11.40% |
30.60% |
Raisel Iglesias |
3 |
92.1 |
9.94 |
2.63 |
47.00% |
4 |
3.58 |
3.21 |
1.09 |
11.80% |
25.20% |
|
Patrick Corbin |
6 |
85 |
8.26 |
1.8 |
46.90% |
3.6 |
3.35 |
3.27 |
1.27 |
10.80% |
30.80% |
|
Noah Syndergaard |
9 |
150 |
9.96 |
1.86 |
46.50% |
3.24 |
3.25 |
2.91 |
1.05 |
12.20% |
24.60% |
|
Chris Archer |
12 |
212 |
10.7 |
2.8 |
46.10% |
3.23 |
2.9 |
3.01 |
1.14 |
12.80% |
32.00% |
|
Matt Harvey |
Mets |
13 |
189.1 |
8.94 |
1.76 |
46.00% |
2.71 |
3.05 |
3.24 |
1.02 |
11.60% |
26.70% |
John Lackey |
Cardinals |
13 |
218 |
7.22 |
2.19 |
46.00% |
2.77 |
3.57 |
3.77 |
1.21 |
9.40% |
30.10% |
CC Sabathia |
Yankees |
6 |
167.1 |
7.37 |
2.69 |
45.90% |
4.73 |
4.68 |
3.99 |
1.42 |
9.10% |
29.10% |
Michael Wacha |
Cardinals |
17 |
181.1 |
7.59 |
2.88 |
45.80% |
3.38 |
3.87 |
3.88 |
1.21 |
9.50% |
29.50% |
Rick Porcello |
Red Sox |
9 |
172 |
7.8 |
1.99 |
45.70% |
4.92 |
4.13 |
3.72 |
1.36 |
8.50% |
32.80% |
Collin McHugh |
Astros |
19 |
203.2 |
7.56 |
2.34 |
45.40% |
3.89 |
3.58 |
3.91 |
1.28 |
10.30% |
24.80% |
Kevin Gausman |
3 |
100.1 |
8.07 |
2.15 |
45.20% |
4.22 |
4.06 |
3.74 |
1.22 |
10.90% |
27.50% |
|
Anthony DeSclafani |
Reds |
9 |
184.2 |
7.36 |
2.68 |
45.10% |
4.05 |
3.67 |
3.97 |
1.35 |
9.50% |
31.20% |
Totals |
|
|
5,740 |
|
|
|
3.33 |
|
|
1.15 |
|
|
The above filter yields a list of starting pitchers that averaged an ERA of 3.33 and WHIP of 1.15. This same research using 2014 data yielded an average ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.22. Of the 34 starters who met the above critteria, only eight had an ERA above 4.00, and only six had a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Off the 34 starters meeting the criteria, only 13 had an ERA below the 3.33 average, 8 of which threw 200+ innings in 2015. This research shows how important it is to draft an ace starting pitcher in the first 3-4 rounds to anchor your staff.
Let's see what happens when we improve the filter to starting pitchers who struck out at least eight batters per nine innings, keeping the walks per nine and ground ball rate constant:
Pitchers with K/9 > 8.00, BB/9 < 3.00 and GB% > 45%: 2015
Name |
W |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
WHIP |
SwStr% |
Hard% |
Clayton Kershaw |
16 |
232.2 |
11.64 |
1.62 |
50.00% |
2.13 |
1.99 |
2.09 |
0.88 |
15.90% |
25.10% |
Chris Archer |
12 |
212 |
10.7 |
2.8 |
46.10% |
3.23 |
2.9 |
3.01 |
1.14 |
12.80% |
32.00% |
Carlos Carrasco |
14 |
183.2 |
10.58 |
2.11 |
51.20% |
3.63 |
2.84 |
2.66 |
1.07 |
14.00% |
27.30% |
Noah Syndergaard |
9 |
150 |
9.96 |
1.86 |
46.50% |
3.24 |
3.25 |
2.91 |
1.05 |
12.20% |
24.60% |
Raisel Iglesias |
3 |
92.1 |
9.94 |
2.63 |
47.00% |
4 |
3.58 |
3.21 |
1.09 |
11.80% |
25.20% |
Carlos Martinez |
14 |
174.2 |
9.33 |
2.99 |
54.50% |
3.04 |
3.16 |
3.18 |
1.27 |
10.70% |
26.90% |
Jake Arrieta |
22 |
229 |
9.28 |
1.89 |
56.20% |
1.77 |
2.35 |
2.61 |
0.86 |
11.10% |
22.20% |
Cole Hamels |
13 |
212.1 |
9.11 |
2.63 |
47.70% |
3.65 |
3.47 |
3.4 |
1.19 |
13.30% |
27.00% |
Jon Lester |
11 |
205 |
9.09 |
2.06 |
48.90% |
3.34 |
2.92 |
3.06 |
1.12 |
10.40% |
29.20% |
Matt Harvey |
13 |
189.1 |
8.94 |
1.76 |
46.00% |
2.71 |
3.05 |
3.24 |
1.02 |
11.60% |
26.70% |
Michael Pineda |
12 |
160.2 |
8.74 |
1.18 |
48.20% |
4.37 |
3.34 |
2.95 |
1.23 |
11.90% |
29.70% |
Gerrit Cole |
19 |
208 |
8.74 |
1.9 |
48.00% |
2.6 |
2.66 |
3.16 |
1.09 |
10.20% |
29.50% |
Felix Hernandez |
18 |
201.2 |
8.52 |
2.59 |
56.20% |
3.53 |
3.72 |
3.33 |
1.18 |
10.70% |
25.40% |
Clay Buchholz |
7 |
113.1 |
8.5 |
1.83 |
48.30% |
3.26 |
2.68 |
3.3 |
1.21 |
10.60% |
23.70% |
Dallas Keuchel |
20 |
232 |
8.38 |
1.98 |
61.70% |
2.48 |
2.91 |
2.75 |
1.02 |
10.30% |
21.20% |
Kyle Hendricks |
8 |
180 |
8.35 |
2.15 |
51.30% |
3.95 |
3.36 |
3.25 |
1.16 |
8.10% |
25.60% |
Joe Ross |
5 |
73.2 |
8.31 |
2.44 |
49.50% |
3.79 |
3.42 |
3.57 |
1.11 |
11.80% |
29.30% |
Patrick Corbin |
6 |
85 |
8.26 |
1.8 |
46.90% |
3.6 |
3.35 |
3.27 |
1.27 |
10.80% |
30.80% |
Masahiro Tanaka |
12 |
154 |
8.12 |
1.58 |
47.00% |
3.51 |
3.98 |
3.29 |
0.99 |
11.40% |
30.60% |
Zack Greinke |
19 |
222.2 |
8.08 |
1.62 |
48.00% |
1.66 |
2.76 |
3.22 |
0.84 |
12.00% |
26.60% |
Kevin Gausman |
3 |
100.1 |
8.07 |
2.15 |
45.20% |
4.22 |
4.06 |
3.74 |
1.22 |
10.90% |
27.50% |
Totals |
|
3,608 |
|
|
|
3.09 |
|
|
1.08 |
|
|
The above list of starters provided an average ERA of 3.09 and a 1.08 WHIP, ace-like stats. That said, the average ERA of the group listed above is lower than the starting pitchers who met the same criteria in 2014 (3.09 vs 2.74 in 2014), but the 2015 group had a lower WHIP(1.13 in 2014 vs 1.08 in 2015). Of the 21 starters who met the above criteria, eight of them had an ERA below the 3.09 average, buoyed by the sub-1.80 ERAs put up by Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta. Only three of the starters meeting the above criteria had an ERA above 4.00 in 2015, so while the average ERA is lower, this group also produced a higher percentage of starters with an ERA below 4.00.
Now, let's limit our universe of starters to pitchers who struck out nine or more batters, while leaving the walks per nine and ground ball rate constant once again:
Pitchers with K/9 > 9.00, BB/9 < 3.00 and GB% > 45%: 2015
Name |
W |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
WHIP |
SwStr% |
Hard% |
Clayton Kershaw |
16 |
232.2 |
11.64 |
1.62 |
50.00% |
2.13 |
1.99 |
2.09 |
0.88 |
15.90% |
25.10% |
Chris Archer |
12 |
212 |
10.7 |
2.8 |
46.10% |
3.23 |
2.9 |
3.01 |
1.14 |
12.80% |
32.00% |
Carlos Carrasco |
14 |
183.2 |
10.58 |
2.11 |
51.20% |
3.63 |
2.84 |
2.66 |
1.07 |
14.00% |
27.30% |
Noah Syndergaard |
9 |
150 |
9.96 |
1.86 |
46.50% |
3.24 |
3.25 |
2.91 |
1.05 |
12.20% |
24.60% |
Raisel Iglesias |
3 |
92.1 |
9.94 |
2.63 |
47.00% |
4 |
3.58 |
3.21 |
1.09 |
11.80% |
25.20% |
Carlos Martinez |
14 |
174.2 |
9.33 |
2.99 |
54.50% |
3.04 |
3.16 |
3.18 |
1.27 |
10.70% |
26.90% |
Jake Arrieta |
22 |
229 |
9.28 |
1.89 |
56.20% |
1.77 |
2.35 |
2.61 |
0.86 |
11.10% |
22.20% |
Cole Hamels |
13 |
212.1 |
9.11 |
2.63 |
47.70% |
3.65 |
3.47 |
3.4 |
1.19 |
13.30% |
27.00% |
Jon Lester |
11 |
205 |
9.09 |
2.06 |
48.90% |
3.34 |
2.92 |
3.06 |
1.12 |
10.40% |
29.20% |
Totals |
|
1689.8 |
|
|
|
3.01 |
|
|
1.07 |
|
|
This group of starting pitchers produced an average ERA of 3.01 and a WHIP of 1.07. Of the nine starters who met the above criteria, eight of the nine put up an ERA below 4.00, while only two pitched to an ERA below the 3.01 average.
If you want an ace starting pitcher in 2016, you must focus on starting pitchers who strike out at least seven batters per nine, limit the walks to three or fewer per nine, and own a 45% or better ground ball rate. The higher the strikeout rate, the better the ERA, WHIP, and strikeout totals. That said, the number of starters striking out nine batters or more per nine innings is very limited.
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