So, Adrian Peterson turned 30 years old in March. This is usually the age when normal Running Backs in both fantasy and real life football tend to start or continue seeing a decline in their production. We've all heard people talk about not wanting to touch RBs who have reached this point in their careers and I won't pretend that I haven't been part of that group at certain times (as Frank Gore continues to laugh at all of us…but that's for another time). But let's not pretend that Adrian Peterson is susceptible to the laws of nature the rest of us normal humans are bound by. I mean, this is the same guy that rushed for 2,097 yards in 2012, less than 10 months after having surgery for a torn ACL late in the 2011 season. Obviously this is a much different situation, as Peterson was out for all but 1 game in the 2014 season for non-football related reasons (we'll keep it on the field here), but I think we can all agree that both of those situations involved him facing adversity or criticism in one form or another. With that in mind, does anyone really think that Peterson is NOT going to come into this season with a giant chip on his shoulder, ready to show the NFL and the world that he is still the best running back in the game? Now, I don't know about everyone else, but the thought of Adrian Peterson believing he has something else to prove to a league that he has been dominating since he arrived in 2007 makes me think one thing: I have to get this guy on my fantasy team this year.

I would take Peterson #1 overall (you saw the name of the article you clicked on, right?), ahead of the other obvious running back options going in the consensus top 5 range, like Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy and Marshawn Lynch. Yeah, yeah, I know...There's too much risk! He's 30 years old and hasn’t played in a year! Le'Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy are so much younger! Marshawn Lynch is going to Beast Mode people! Jamaal Charles runs like the wind! All of these things are true, but let me give you some stats to back up my love for AP. Since he came into the league in 2007, Peterson has averaged 5.0 yards per carry, second only to Jamaal Charles' 5.5 yards per carry among running backs during that time (I did say he runs like the wind, right?) and both are among the best in NFL history in yards per carry for running backs. So far, Peterson has accumulated 10,190 total rushing yards in his career. That's 1,420 more rushing yards than any other back in that span (can you guess who 2nd is? I'll give you a hint: he's laughing even harder now)....that's an entire extra season's worth of production. And he only played in 1 game last season!

It's not only about yardage with Peterson either, as he has scored at least 10 rushing touchdowns in every season in which he's played more than 1 game (again, 2014)....EVERY YEAR! Most people in the fantasy industry maintain that touchdowns are difficult to predict and count on year to year, which is mostly true, but if any player can be counted upon to get into the end zone, it’s Peterson. Over his career, he's averaged .83 rushing touchdowns per game (let’s call it TPG from now on) and .88 combined TPG (CoTPG) if you include receiving scores (so, CoTPG = rushing + receiving scores per game). There’s going to be a few numbers coming up here, but stick with me, I’m getting there. Here are the TPG stats for the rest of the top tier of fantasy running backs:

· Marshawn Lynch: .76 rushing TPG and .89 CoTPG since 2011, his first full year in Seattle

· Arian Foster (now injured and out for an as of yet undetermined amount of time): .74 rushing TPG and .90 CoTPG since 2010, his breakout second year

· Jamaal Charles: .48 rushing TPG and .71 CoTPG since 2009, when he took over the full workload

· Matt Forte: .38 rushing TPG and .53 CoTPG since his rookie year

· LeSean McCoy: .54 rushing TPG and .68 CoTPG since 2010, when he took over the full workload

Of course, Eddie Lacy and Le'Veon Bell are in the top tier of fantasy RBs as well and although the sample size is smaller, they also don't come close to Peterson's average TPG numbers (.65 TPG and .77 CoTPG for Lacy and .55 and .66, respectively, for Bell). So, besides Peterson blowing the other backs out of the water in terms of rushing touchdowns per game, what's the trend here? When you look at the numbers, you can see that the other backs comparatively gain much more value with the addition of their receiving scores. The lowest increase for all of these top backs is .11 added total touchdowns per game (Bell) and the largest is an additional .23 (Charles), while Peterson's is merely a .05 increase with receiving scores. Despite this, only Lynch and Foster surpass Peterson in CoTPG, and this is by a negligible amount (.01 and .02, respectively). And by the way, the top backs not named Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte with a larger than two-year sample size (so excluding Bell and Lacy) did not have their rookie year included in these stats and in Lynch's case, his entire time in Buffalo was excluded. Peterson made a huge and immediate impact the year he came into the league and has been doing so ever since! Now, Peterson's career high in receptions came in 2009 when he caught 43 passes for 436 yards and no touchdowns and he has only reached 40 receptions one other time in his career (2012). Peterson also just happened to produce his two highest fantasy point totals in standard fantasy leagues during these two seasons. Enter Norv Turner as the Minnesota Vikings’ Offensive Coordinator.

Last year, when Turner joined the Vikings staff as OC, the narrative was the same as it is now, that Turner could get the most out of Peterson, who is already an elite talent and had produced as such consistently during his NFL career. Since Norv Turner became an Offensive Coordinator for the Cowboys in the early 1990s, he has had 18 running backs with at least 200 carries in a season where he was the OC or Head Coach. Those "lead backs" have averaged 46 catches during that time and I believe that Peterson comes in right around that number at the end of year, if not higher. I know that more catches doesn’t necessarily mean more receiving touchdowns, but it definitely means more opportunities for Peterson, which means more fantasy points, and we all like fantasy points (I mean, why else would you have made it this far, right?). Remember when I said Peterson had his two highest fantasy point totals the same two seasons he had 40 or more receptions? I think that trend continues this year.

Unfortunately, we didn't get to see Peterson operate in Turner's offense in his first year in Minnesota, but this year is looking even better than last for those who believed in Turner's possible positive effect on Peterson's production for several reasons. First is the continued maturation of second year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Let's not act like the quarterbacks the Vikings were operating with early last year were actually NFL starting caliber players, as they were stuck with Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder before inserting Bridgewater into the lineup. He progressed throughout the year and in the last 4 games of the 2014 season, Bridgewater compiled a 72.3 completion percentage, 7.3 yards per completion on the year and a 99.8 passer rating. He has seemed to carry that momentum into the 2015 preseason, as he's completed 82.9 percent of his passes with 8.4 yards per attempt and a 111.3 passer rating. If this progression is any indication, Bridgewater will be able to take a step forward this season and pull some fraction of attention away from Peterson.

The offense's other weapons should help take some pressure off Peterson as well, as defenses will have to account for Charles Johnson as he continues his upward trajectory in his 3rd year, as well as the addition of downfield threat Mike Wallace and a healthy (hopefully) Kyle Rudolph occupying the middle of the field. This isn’t to say that defenses won’t pay him a lot of attention (I mean, he’s still Adrian Peterson), but maybe there will be enough around him to give a little more breathing room and a few more open lanes to run through.

All of these factors create the perfect storm for Peterson to be the #1 running back and #1 player overall in fantasy leagues this year. The offensive system, the improved talent level around him and his need to prove to his detractors that he is still the best running back in the NFL will push him past the other backs in the top tier. I mean, is this really the bandwagon you want to jump off of too early? Is this really the guy you're going to go against? We’ve already seen him almost break the NFL’s single season rushing record less than a year after having major knee surgery. If there's anyone that you want to actually see start to decline before jumping ship, it's him. So, yeah, you can count me among those that will be drafting Adrian Peterson #1 this year.

Stats were gathered from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com