Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
Early slate: Yankees LHB in Yankee Stadium vs Chris Young
FIP and xFIP underrate Young because of how many harmless infield fly balls he generates, but he still allows non infield fly balls at a significantly above average clip. To compound that, Young has allowed a pulled batted ball 42% of the time to LHB dating back to the start of last year, 28th highest among starters. Pulled fly balls from left handers will be very dangerous in Yankee Stadium. Brian McCann at $3,100 is the easiest choice to play. He had yesterday's game off, so he'll be in the lineup today. McCann's results at home as a Yankee have been dramatically better than his results on the road:
Home: 343 PA, 24 HR, 126 wRC+, .269 ISO
Away: 349 PA, 4 HR, 58 wRC+, .076 ISO
McCann also has a 43.4% FB% and 42.4% pull% at home, so that short porch will be a home run target against Young with his fly ball tendencies.
Carlos Beltran at $2,800 is a discount, under the radar OF option for salary cap relief. Beltran has had below average results vs RHP in 2015 (93 wRC+), but he's actually hit the ball hard at a well above average clip vs RHP. Beltran is ending his at bats vs RHP with a hard hit ball roughly 19% of the time, third best among Yankees regulars, and he's been slotted 2nd in the order recently. Only Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira ($3,500) are ahead of Beltran in his hard hit% vs RHP. Teixeira's 20.5% percentage of ABs ending with a hard hit ball vs RHP is 30th best in baseball, and his 153 wRC+ vs RHP is 22nd best, so he is a playable option at 1B (although I like Joey Votto at home at $3,200 vs. Kyle Kendrick more for tomorrow's early game).
Milwaukee Brewers vs Ryan Vogelsong in Miller Park
Vogelsong has been among the leagues worst starting pitchers on the road in recent years away from the pitcher friendly AT&T park. In 107 IP on the road dating back to the start of last year, Vogelsong has a brutal 5.84 FIP (2nd worst), 5.60 ERA (6th worst) and .880 OPS against. Vogelsong has also been among the hardest hit pitchers this year (20% of his opponents at bats end in a hard hit ball, 12th worst).
Khris Davis has been slotted 2nd in the order lately and is priced at $3,000. Davis was a favorite of mine before the season started (his offensive profile was very similar to Yoenis Cespedes):
Khris Davis 2014: 22 HR, 107 wRC+, 5.8% BB%, 19.8% hard hit% Cespedes 2014: 22 HR, 109 wRC+, 5.4% BB%, 18.5% hard hit%— Timothy Finnegan (@TimFinn521) April 3, 2015
After a cold start, Davis has finally begun to produce, getting his wRC+ back above league average at 108.
The night games feature a lot of quality pitching: Max Scherzer vs. Jon Lester, Zack Greinke vs. Alex Wood, and Andrew Cashner vs. Garrett Richards are all good pitcher duels, and Lance Lynn also goes for the Cardinals. This is a boring suggestion, but I'm avoiding the late slate aside from maybe a $1 Hail Mary GPP entrance. It's too difficult to predict, and your money is better spent on matchups that look more appealing.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.