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Early NFBC ADP Rankings Analysis

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Ray offers some thoughts on the early NFBC ADP rankings over on NESN.com.

Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The early NFBC average draft position (ADP) rankings have been released over at NESN and NFBC.  The NFBC leagues are 15 team leagues, most of which are mixed leagues, but they do have NL only and AL only leagues as well. And there is money involved, so I imagine the competition is very good.

Below is a link to the NESN data:

NFBC ADP Rankings

Here are the NFBC Top 50 rankings:

Rank

Player

Team

Pos

Avg Pick

Min Pick

Max Pick 1

1

Mike Trout

LAA

CF

1.56

1

3

2

Bryce Harper

Was

RF

2.33

1

4

3

Paul Goldschmidt

Ari

1B

3

1

5

4

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

SP

4.33

1

8

5

Josh Donaldson

Tor

3B

5.11

2

8

6

Carlos Correa

Hou

SS

7.56

4

11

7

Nolan Arenado

Col

3B

8.11

5

13

8

Manny Machado

Bal

3B

9.11

6

17

9

Kris Bryant

ChC

3B

9.78

4

12

10

Giancarlo Stanton

Mia

RF

10.44

7

14

11

Anthony Rizzo

ChC

1B

12.33

8

18

12

Jose Altuve

Hou

2B

12.78

8

17

13

Max Scherzer

Was

SP

13

6

28

14

Miguel Cabrera

Det

1B

13.56

6

29

15

Andrew McCutchen

Pit

CF

14.22

5

30

16

A.J. Pollock

Ari

CF

16.78

14

31

17

Mookie Betts

Bos

CF

18.33

16

32

18

Jake Arrieta

ChC

SP

18.67

15

33

19

Dee Gordon

Mia

2B

20

14

34

20

Buster Posey

SF

C

20.78

14

35

21

Edwin Encarnacion

Tor

1B

21.44

11

36

22

George Springer

Hou

RF

23

19

37

23

Starling Marte

Pit

LF

24.11

21

38

24

Jose Abreu

CWS

1B

24.44

18

39

25

Chris Sale

CWS

SP

24.44

16

40

26

Jose Bautista

Tor

RF

27

17

41

27

Chris Davis

Bal

1B

27

18

42

28

Zack Greinke

Ari

SP

27.67

9

43

29

Madison Bumgarner

SF

SP

29.11

26

44

30

Jose Fernandez

Mia

SP

31.44

16

45

31

Joey Votto

Cin

1B

32.22

25

46

32

Kyle Schwarber

ChC

LF

33.44

21

47

33

Matt Harvey

NYM

SP

35.11

27

48

34

David Price

Bos

SP

35.89

28

49

35

Charlie Blackmon

Col

CF

36.22

28

50

36

Gerrit Cole

Pit

SP

36.33

30

51

37

J.D. Martinez

Det

RF

38.22

23

52

38

Jacob deGrom

NYM

SP

38.33

25

53

39

Stephen Strasburg

Was

SP

40.22

28

54

40

Corey Kluber

Cle

SP

40.33

32

55

41

Yoenis Cespedes

NYM

LF

41

27

56

42

Dallas Keuchel

Hou

SP

41.22

32

57

43

Ryan Braun

Mil

RF

42

24

58

44

Nelson Cruz

Sea

RF

42.89

33

59

45

Todd Frazier

CWS

3B

48.44

38

60

46

Troy Tulowitzki

Tor

SS

48.44

36

61

47

Justin Upton

SD

LF

49

41

62

48

Noah Syndergaard

NYM

SP

49.56

41

63

49

Lorenzo Cain

KC

CF

49.78

35

64

50

Chris Archer

TB

SP

50

43

65

Some initial thoughts

  • If you want to draft a top four third baseman, you will need to draft them early. I mean, very early.....as in first round early. Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant and Manny Machado are all going in the top nine picks of NFBC drafts right now. All four are coming off excellent 2015 seasons, so it comes as no surprise that they are first round picks right now.
  • The NFBC isn't reflecting Cubs catcher Kyle Schwarber in their catcher rankings, but he is currently the 10th ranked outfielder and 32nd player coming off draft boards with an ADP of 33. That is way too high for me as he had trouble making contact last year. Sure, he has plenty of power, but he is not the 32nd best fantasy player. Among outfielders, he is being drafted before Charlie Blackmon, J.D. Martinez, Yoenis Cespedes, Ryan Braun, and Carlos Gomez among others.
  • If you want to draft the top shortstop in fantasy baseball, you will have to grab him very early in the first round of drafts in 2016. Carlos Correa has an ADP of 6 and is being drafted ahead of all third baseman not named Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and even teammate George Springer.
  • Speaking of Springer, he is currently ranked as the 7th best outfielder, which, for me, is a few spots too low, but I am glad he is getting the love he deserves. He has yet to show us what he can do in a full season.
  • Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is coming off NFBC draft boards at #4 which makes sense to me. He is coming off a 2015 season where he struck out 300 batters. 300!!!
  • Sixteen pitchers are ranked in the NFBC top 50 and not one of them is named Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Sonny Gray, Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto.
  • The top five shortstops according to NFBC, in order:

1. Carlos Correa

2. Troy Tulowitzki

3. Corey Seager

4. Francisco Lindor

5. Xander Bogaerts

  • All five are being taken in the first 70 picks, or the first five rounds of NFBC drafts. Seager's ADP is 56.89, so he is being drafted in the fourth round of drafts thus far.
  • Three players heading into their second full season in baseball, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and Mookie Betts, are being drafted in the first 17 picks of NFBC drafts. Could one of them be a bust in 2016?
  • Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton is currently being drafted as the 21st ranked outfielder, ahead of Jason Heyward, Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Corey Dickerson. That is too high for me, but I understand the reasoning. I just think he could see a diminished role at some point in the next year or two due to his inability to get on base.