Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Should we pay up for speed in 2016?

Last week, I wrote an article that took a deep dive into the stolen base category across all major league teams. The article highlighted teams that focused on running more, i.e. stealing more bases, in 2015, and also on the teams that chose to not give away outs on the base paths. You can find that article in the link below:

Dissecting the stolen base category

The article detailed how each team performed on the base paths in 2015, detailing how often they attempted a stolen base, how successful they were when they did attempt a steal, and how many stolen base opportunities they had. To summarize, there were a few teams, the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rangers, among others, who saw their success rate rise, while other teams, the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Royals and Nationals, who saw their success rates decline last season.

Looking over the last five seasons, the number of successful stolen bases has been in steady decline, with 2014 being the outlier. As you can see in the table below, the success rates across baseball has also been in steady decline. All in all, the number of stolen bases has dropped approximately 24% since 2011, with a 16% drop in 2013 and another 9% drop in 2015.

Let's take a look at the stolen base data for the period 2011-2015:

Year	SB	CS	Success %	% Drop
2011	3,279	1,261	72.2%
2012	3,229	1,136	74.0%	-1.5%
2013	2,693	1,007	72.8%	-16.6%
2014	2,764	1,035	72.8%	2.6%
2015	2,505	1,063	70.2%	-9.4%

Why are teams not running as much as in the past? I discussed a few reasons in the article linked above:

In 2015, all MLB teams attempted 231 fewer stolen bases than in 2014. Going back to 2011, teams have attempted almost 1,000 fewer stolen bases over the the last five seasons.There are several reasons why teams are attempting fewer stolen bases:

1. Front offices are de-emphasizing the importance of the stolen base, and relying on the home run, and don't see the value in giving up outs on the base paths.

2. Teams are placing more value on winning games with pitching, defensive shifts and catchers who can frame pitches for called strikes.

3. Hitters just aren't getting on base as much as they have in the past. The league average on base percentage (OBP) in 2011 was .321. In 2015, the league average OBP dropped to .317 after dropping to just .314 in 2014.

As a result, the fantasy owner will have a harder time finding stolen base guys on draft day and on the waiver wire. Below is a look at the number of hitters who stole 20+ bases and 30+ bases over the same time period: 2011-2015:

Year	20+	30+
2011	39	20
2012	46	22
2013	40	16
2014	39	15
2015	30	7

In the table above, there were 39 hitters who stole 20 or more bases back in 2011, 20 of which stole 30 or more bases. That number increased in 2012, where 46 hitters stole 20 or more bases, 22 of which stole 30+ bases. Since 2012, the number of hitters who stole 30+ bases has dropped 35%, from 46 to 30 last season. And the number of hitters who stole 30 or more bases has dropped 68% since 2012, and more than 50% over the last year.

This is a pretty shocking revelation and one that fantasy owners should factor into their draft strategy in 2016. But when drafting a guy for his speed, you want to draft the guy who you KNOW will steal 20 or more bags in 2016. Base stealers are a different bunch, as some of them have trouble staying in the lineup because they can't get on base, others have trouble staying in the lineup for defensive purposes or they can't hit for power, of they just lose the starting role to a hitter who has more skills and tools. Still others get hurt and lose their jobs. And as a result, finding a hitter who you KNOW will steal 20 or 30 more bases can be difficult.

In 2014, 24 of the 39 hitters who stole 20 or more bases also stole 20 bases in 2013. In 2015, only 13 of the 30 hitters who stole 20 or more bases also stole 20 bases in 2014. Here is the list of players who stole 20 or more bases in 2015:

Name	2015 SB
A.J. Pollock	39
Anthony Gose	23
Ben Revere	31
Billy Burns	26
Billy Hamilton	57
Brandon Phillips	23
Brett Gardner	20
Cameron Maybin	23
Charlie Blackmon	43
Dee Gordon	58
Delino Deshields	25
Dexter Fowler	20
DJ LeMahieu	23
Elvis Andrus	25
Ender Inciarte	21
Gregory Polanco	27
Jacoby Ellsbury	21
Jake Marisnick	24
Jarrod Dyson	26
Jason Heyward	23
Jean Segura	25
Jose Altuve	38
Jose Reyes	24
Kevin Pillar	25
Lorenzo Cain	28
Manny Machado	20
Mookie Betts	21
Paul Goldschmidt	21
Ryan Braun	24
Starling Marte	30

The players listed below is the list of players who stole 20 or more bases in 2014 and in 2015:

Ben Revere

Billy Hamilton

Dee Gordon

Charlie Blackmon

Brett Gardner

Elvis Andrus

Jacoby Ellbury

Jarrod Dyson

Jason Heyward

Jean Segura

Jose Altuve

Jose Reyes

Starling Marte

The question we need to answer is "Who will steal 20 or more in 2016?". I think Gordon and Hamilton are slam dunks to steal 20 bases in 2016, and here are a few more that I think can repeat next season:

Charlie Blackmon

Elvis Andrus

Gregory Polanco

Jarrod Dyson

Jose Altuve

Mookie Betts

Starling Marte

These are the players who I would pay an extra dollar or two in auction drafts, or grab a round earlier than usual to ensure I draft someone who can anchor the category for me. Gordon and Altuve will more than likely be drafted in the late second to early third rounds this season, while Betts and Marte won't be too far behind them.

I am sure we will be able to find stolen bases late in drafts in 2016, but with many teams not running as much as in the past, it might be worth grabbing that anchor earlier than you are comfortable with just to ensure you can compete in the stolen base category in 2016.