Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Pascal Siakam (PF/C). Talk about improving. The Raptors are done for the season. It’s been a tough one, starting at becoming the Tampa Bay Raps and ending with a year in which the squad won’t make the postseason after getting the chip just a couple of summers ago. Siakam, the no. 1 player for the ‘chise going forward, was plain bad in the three games from Apr. 27 to May 1, but all of a sudden that changed and this fool put up 71 and 40 DKFP in the last two against no less than the Lakers and the Clips. Flexing on the devil, I guess. Siakam is that type of player. We know him. That is not a random set of outlier outcomes. He can do it, and he just did it. Toronto is facing Washington today, which is making quite a run toward the 9th spot in the East and is seemingly unstoppable these days, but the Wiz D stinks a bit and Siakam is the cheapest player of the slate (by far) projecting to 45+ DKFP today.
- Hate: Kawhi Leonard (SF). Demolition Derby Day! Yay! The Clips against the Lake Show. Los Angeles Showdown. Call it what you want. Here’s the deal, though: Dennis Schroder is out, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, KCP, and Kyle Kuzma are probable, and LeBron is also missing in action. The Clips are without Ibaka, but that should be it. This looks like a Lakers win coming out of left field even they play a bunch of secondary fools, with both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard managing their efforts and sinking fantasy GMs trusting them against a depleted Lake Squad. I’m not liking this play just one bit, and I’m actually hating it even more looking at Kawhi’s last few games: 22 minutes against Minny, 30 for 31 FP against Denver, and 33 for 23 FP against Toronto just two days ago. Fadity fade.
- Love: Andrew Wiggins (SF). Are we going to get a triple-double performance from Wig? Not so sure about that, as all Wiggins does is pretty much shooting the rock and hitting pops. Not that we should hate that, though. It’s been four in a row for Drew scoring at least 20 points and 2+ triples in each of those topping at 5 in his last outing facing NOLA. In those mini-series against the Pels finishing two days ago he dropped consecutive 26-point games with 26-4-0-1-2 and 26-6-3-0-2 lines that went for nice 37 and 44 FP tallies. Wiggins is playing a very healthy 38 MPG these days, he’s shooting a bulky 18+ FGA a day, and even on that super high volume, he’s still hitting 53% of his shots from the floor while keeping up a spicy 63.4 true shooting percentage. Nothing to hate here, even less given the low price and 40+ DKFP projection.
- Hate: Ja Morant (PG). Don’t get fooled by yesterday’s outcome, folks. Morant put on a show against the lowly Wolves on Wednesday putting up a silly 37-4-10-2-1 line while shooting 56% from the floor on a monster 25 FGA diet. That was insane. The 63 FP are the highest tally Ja has reached since Apr. 19 against Denver and the second of his season since opening day. Jeez. That’s sublime, you say? It is, but what is not are the four prior games in which Ja finished with 29, 29, 36, and 21 DKFP while playing an average of 32 MPG. I mean, what the hell is that? Where is my bonkers Morant? Why is Memphis putting their luck and future on Jonas Valanciunas’ hands? One never knows true answers, but one knows Morant is a way too bouncy and risky player to trust this season.
- Love: LaMelo Ball (PG). This LaMelo is not pre-injury LaMelo, but he’s far from a bad play since coming back. It’s been three games for him since we kicked May off, and he’s topped 35 DKFP in all of them with an average 16-6-6-2-1 line. Consider he’s playing just 30 MPG, and that amounts to a very efficient 1.30 FP/min mark in that span. I’m not saying you should make Melo your no. 1 point in today’s lineup, but he’s definitely one of the better low-to-mid salary options out there. The Hornets keep fighting for a good position comes play-in time (they’re currently 8th in the East) and although they’d probably finish on the right side of it they can’t rest on their laurels ROS. Chicago is cooked, has a below-average fantasy D, and Ball should want to put on a show against the former Mike franchise as he could only play 16 minutes against the Bulls when they met all the way back in January.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 19 (Apr. 26 to May. 2)
- This is getting boring. LOL. One month straight getting the no. 1 DK spot wasn’t enough for Russell Westbrook, who has now five consecutive weeks at the top of the leaderboard. That’s bonkers. Russ did it to the tune of a 65 DKFP average on four games played in the past seven days, putting up a 24-13-12 trip-dub on a monster 39 MPG.
- Tatum (62), the only other player to break the 60-FP barrier did it on just 3 GP, which takes a bit from him. Luka finished third with 59 FPG on a heavier dose of play on 4 GP and a 31-8-10 dub-dub.
- On a per-minute basis, Giannis was on a league of his own posting a ridiculously efficient 2.75 FP/min mark. Nobody came even remotely close, with Jokic sliding in no. 2 (1.67) followed by Russ and Luka (both at 1.65).
- Russ was the only player good enough to post a week-trip-dub, although Doncic came close along with Dejounte Murray (!) and Lonzo Ball (!!).
- Silly cheap values: Alize Johnson, Mychal Mulder, Frank Jackson, Juan Hernangomez, McDermott, Rondo, Nesmith, Anfernee, Aaron Holiday, Ty Jerome, Cam Payne, Forbes
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Oshae Brissett, Lonzo, Dejounte, Bey, Tim Hardaway Jr., Birch, Olynyk, Thadd Young, Lowry, Mikal Bridges, DeRozan
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Giannis, Embiid, Beal, Paul George, Kyrie, Capela, Gobert, Ingram, Morant, McCollum, Jrue, Garland, Rozier, Simmons, John Collins, Tobias
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Frank Jackson, McDermott, Mulder, Forbes, Lonnie, Rudy Gay, Melo, Juan Hernangomez, Seth Curry, Ty Jerome, Okoro
- Cheap threes: Mulder, Forbes, Seth, Anfernee, Frank Jackson, Nian, Juan Hernangomez, Ty Jerome, Shamet
- Cheap boards: Alize Johnson, Willy, Dwight, Theis, Favors, DJ Wilson, Dedmon, Markkanen, Len, Vanderbilt, Gafford, Deck, Clarke
- Cheap dimes: Rondo, Mike James, Aaron Holiday, Gary Harris, Flynn, Ish, THT, Goodwin, Saben Lee, Ty Jerome, Temple, Looney, Poole
- Cheap steals: Cody Martin, JTA, Rivers, Thybulle, Clarke, Connaughton, Willy, Burke, Rondo
- Cheap blocks: Biyombo, Craig, JTA, Reed, Thybulle, Melton, Tony Bradley, Mo Wagner, Brimah, Dwight, Naz Reid, Gafford
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): McDermott, Melo, Tye Jerome, Juan Hernangomez, Mulder, Forbes, Theis, Naz Reid, Seth, Gay, Kenyon Martin Jr., Frank Jackson, Quickley, Rondo
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!