Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Russell Westbrook (PG). The minute I tell you to build around Russ, the minute he flops. Well, “flops” that is, because he still put up some 40 FP on the day. But that’s not a lot considering his exploits of late, that’s for sure, and the ROI just wasn’t there. That’s basically why I’m telling you to double down on him today. Stubborn as they get, folks. I mean, it takes an average of five games for Russ to miss on hitting triple-double-digits and he comes off one of those nights. This is the first 40-FP game in Westbrooks’ last freaking 18 matches. More than a month since the last time it happened. No way it goes that way two games in a row. No way.
- Hate: Anthony Davis (PF/C). Davis has been back for a couple of games already, has started both of those matches, has stayed on the top-tier of priced players for some reason, and today he remains there even though he hasn’t done too much in those last two outings... Orlando looks like a get-right team and matchup on paper, I know, but Davis has averaged 0.82 and 0.85 FP/min in his two games back and topped at 25 minutes last Saturday while playing 28 minutes with a 17-3-3 line. The shooting has been absolutely disastrous at a paltry 23% from the floor on a combined 29 FGA, and who knows what the Lakers and coach Vogel have in mind regarding Davis’ management leading up to the postseason. We know Davis has the potential, the upside, and the league-leading ceiling, but we don’t have any freaking idea how he and this play will do any given day now that he’s back and the Lakers are pretty much locked into their no. 5 seed.
- Love: Rudy Gobert (C). This play is very similar to Westbrook’s above. Gobert is taken for granted nightly, and the truth is that that makes sense almost every day. That’s because Rudy has dub-dubbed in 41 of his 59 games played this season, and pretty much as Russ it takes him more than three games before missing on such lines. And that is selling Gobert short: since the start of April he’s played 12 games with 9 dub-dubs, and there were five games between missing on it two days ago and his prior fail while at it. It’s funny, cause that last game was against Minny and the Wolves are facing Utah once more today. What are the chances Gobert puts up another 50% shooting game? That hadn’t happened since March, and the rebounds were there with 17 on the night. Add a few points and a few swats (he just blocked one shot last Saturday) and this play starts to look quite spicy.
- Hate: Ja Morant (PG). This is more of a warning than anything else. If you look at Ja’s games of late, you’ll find an entry against Denver just a week ago. Back then Ja put up his best game of the season to the tune of 72 DKFP... only it took him 46 minutes of playing time. Obviously, when you hit that fantasy mark you’re always going to return value no matter the price, but I’m highly dubious he’ll get there for the second time against Denver, not to mention Ja’s salary is $1K higher than it was back then making him less of a value. Morant has been great in the past four games, that’s something I can’t argue about. But I’m just here only warning you that you should tame your expectations a bit when it comes to Ja because the season hasn’t been that great for him and his current ridiculous run doesn’t look very sustainable.
- Love: Dejounte Murray (PG). While Dejounte doesn’t project to a bounty of fantasy goodies (37 FP), the truth is that those points combined with his “low” salary make for a great combination when it comes to valuable plays. Murray has scored at least 11 points in his last 16 games going all the way back to Mar. 25, has reached 30+ DKFP in 15 of those 16 matches, and he should rebound a bit from his two-game mini-slump of shooting just 30% from the floor. Even then, and again, for his salary, you’d already be on a good position if he reaches his season-average of 35+ DKFP against Washington, which is more than probable given their previews meeting ended with Murray reaching his third-best score of the season with 46 DKFP on an 11-10-10-1 trip-dub night.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 15 (Apr. 19 to Apr. 25)
- A month. A full month. That’s the span of Russell Westbrook’s fantasy domination playing for a new team in Washington this season. And if it wasn’t for Russ’ exploits, odds are those Wizards would be not fighting for a spot in the play-in mini-tournament as they currently are. Russ played 4 games this past week and even with the likes of Giannis (57 FP) and Irving (56) pressing him, Russ was still able to top all fantasy players with an average of 58 DKFP and a monster 19-12-12-2 line.
- As you already know, Russ plays a ton of minutes (almost 39 MPG this week). That’s why Westbrook missed on being the most efficient player in the league with a 1.49 FP/min mark. That award went to Giannis, who put up 1.80 FP/min on average in his four games played.
- Russ was also the only player to average a triple-double this week. Luka Doncic (26-9-10) was the closest to it, with all of Kyrie (27-7-10), Ja Morant (30-7-8-2), Jokic (30-11-5) falling a bit shorter.
- Mentioning it because he made history on Sunday: Steph Curry closed the week averaging 5.8 3PG, and has scored 85 triples this month alone. That’s the highest amount of treys scored in a single calendar month in the history of the Association, so there’s that.
- Silly cheap values: Oshae Brissett, DJ Wilson, Sumner, Dozier, Neto, Gafford, Iggy, Craig, Metu, Dwight Powell, Maxey, DeAndre Jordan, Cauley-Stein, Millsap
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Nurkic, Ja, Tillman, Nunn, Bullock, Derrick White, Bazley, Rose, D’Lo, Sexton, Schroder, Garland, Brogdon
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Vucevic, Lillard, Middleton, Jarrett Allen, Dejounte Murray, Lonzo, Butler, Tatum, Booker
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Bertans, Lou Williams, Brissett, Sumner, Quickley, Melo, Dwight Powell, Kennard, Neto, Seth Curry, Bacon, Reid, McDermott, Maxey, Mykhailiuk, Dozier, Melton, Pritchard
- Cheap threes: Bertans, Quickley, Melo, Melton, Markkanen, Kennard, Seth Curry, Pritchard, Armoni Brooks, Justin Holiday
- Cheap boards: DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard, Looney, Noel, Brissett, Tillman, Cousins, Craig, Biyombo, Gafford, Eubanks, Armoni Brooks
- Cheap dimes: Killian Hayes, Dellavedova, Ty Jerome, Dozier, Ish Smith, Neto, Lou Williams, Temple, Saben Lee, Iggy, Teague, Melton
- Cheap steals: Thybulle, Neto, Wanamaker, Harkless, Dozier, Shaq Harrison, Iggy, Caruso, Metu, Melton, Tillman, Gafford, Kenyon Martin Jr., Dedmon
- Cheap blocks: Noel, Gafford, Iggy, Metu, Millsap, Thybulle, Kenyon, DeAndre Jordan
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Neto, Harkless, McDermott, Sumner, Quickley, Reid, Markkanen, Seth Curry
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!