It’s Fri-yay, so that means a little MLB DFS content ahead of tonight’s MLB DFS Wars competition tonight.
There’s something uncomfortable about Adam Wainwright being the top-priced pitcher at $10,000. Yes, the numbers for Waino this year are stellar (13 wins, 2.97 ERA). But he’s also 40 years old and facing off against decent Brewers team, one that is upper third in terms of ISO but bottom third in terms of K-rate. Over the last two weeks though, Milwaukee has a .136 ISO (26th) and 23.3% strikeout rate (13th-worst, still bottom third). Over the last 14 days the Brewers have a 9.5% walk rate, tied for 5th-best in the league...but Waino has a 5.9% walk rate, tied for 16-best among qualified hurlers. Add it all up, and I think I can’t fully fade Waino, despite him seeming like a vanilla option. There’s some K-upside against the Brew Crew, who have been cold of late, while Waino is coming in hot.
I’m obligated to share about Coors. If you want to go there, fine. I typically don’t because of the popularity and because of the contests I play. I also respect both pitchers on the mound in Colorado (Antonio Senzatela and Huascar Ynoa), so that makes it easier. All that said, Jorge Soler is batting second for the Braves and is somehow only $3,900. He’s got four homers over the last week of baseball, tied with Yasmani Grandal and Patrick Wisdom for the most in baseball. He’s a free square tonight. I feel similarly about Travis d’Arnaud for just $4,200. Just know that they’ll be popular.
The Houston Astros at RHP Jake Arrieta...now that’s appealing. The 4.75 implied run total feels low. Michael Brantley ($4,000) and Kyle Tucker ($4,100) are cheaper options to make that lineup work.
The Cincinnati Reds are at home against LHP Tyler Alexander. I love guys who are cheap that hit home runs, and Eugenio Suarez ($4,100) fits those requirements. Jonathan India ($4,500) is also pretty cheap for a leadoff man in a situation that looks this nice.
Austin Meadows ($4,600) is an affordable way to attack Randy Dobnak. On the flip side, the Twins sure are cheap against Michael Wacha, who has been really up and down this year.
And if I’m getting crazy, finding a way to stack up Dodgers against RHP Anthony DeSclafani is a nice late-night hammer option. Tony Disco has been good overall this year, but the Dodgers have had his number. Add in Trea Turner leading off and this is a more formidable crew that he’s used to...not to mention the familiarity. That’s probably tough to figure, as there aren’t many cheap pitchers I love, at least not off the cuff.
More research will follow later...for now, what sticks out to any of you in your first pass?