MLB DFS: Charlie Morton and the best/worst DraftKings plays for Sunday, July 4th

The Mets/Yankees game is is Game 1 of a double-header (and therefore seven innings). But it’s a nine-game slate overall, beginning at 1:05 PM ET on DraftKings. I missed yesterday, but I’m jumping right in as quickly as I can today. Let’s do it...

Pitching

Best play: Charlie Morton vs. Miami Marlins ($7,800)

The Marlins were limited to three runs on five hits yesterday, with nearly all of the damage coming against Kyle Muller—who still went 5 ²⁄₃ with seven strikeouts. Muller managed a useful 15.95 DK points, despite not getting a win (Braves lost 3-2). Anyway, Morton is a different beast, having low-key pitched like an ace for some time now. On the season he has a 100:29 K:BB over only 86 ²⁄₃ innings, good for a shiny 10.38 K/9. His average fastball velocity is up nearly two full MPH this year, at 95.1 MPH (93.3 last year). I can’t tell you that’s the key to his rebound—2020 peripherals actually suggest he did well but was a victim of a small sample—but I know the added velo isn’t hurting. He’s generating more ground balls and allowing fewer barrels than he did in 2020, actually back in line with what we expected from him pre-pandemic. The Marlins might be without their leadoff man in Jazz Chisholm Jr., who left in the seventh inning of last night’s game due to an ankle injury. The Fish can’t afford to lose much—they already boast a 28.9% K-rate (29th) and .112 ISO (27th) over the last week of action.

Worst play: Kyle Hendricks @ Cincinnati Reds ($8,600)

Hendricks is a quality MLB pitcher, but one way or another I expect him to underwhelm today. He’s on the road in a hitter’s paradise, squaring off against a Reds team that has some momentum in the bullpen lately (their Achilles heel all season). Meanwhile, the Cubs have lost eight straight games, posting a 33.3% K-rate (30th) and .109 ISO (29th) over the last week of action. Wade Miley (3.09 ERA) has had some strong moments this year, and he looks primed for another one here—or at least, seems a tiny bit of a safer bet to me than Hendricks, though I don’t love either. I just can’t talk myself into a low strikeout pitcher who is on the road in a hitter’s park—especially if I think his chance at snagging a win is a longshot.

Hitting

Best play: Milwaukee Brewers @ LHP Tyler Anderson

Today is a day to jam in what worked yesterday, if you ask me. The Brewers put 11 runs on the Pirates and won their 11th game in a row. If you subscribe to the idea that baseball is a game of streaks, then you’ve got to get some Brewers bats into your lineups today. Don’t ignore Omar Narvaez (if he starts). He’s in the LvL matchup, but he was red-hot with five hits yesterday. Odds are Manny Pina gets the nod today, but I wanted to mention it. Ride these streaks when you can, especially when it’s a split that people will ignore, like the LvL one.

There are tons of ways to go with this lineup. 2B/OF Jace Peterson has also been red-hot, with double-digit DK points in six out of his last seven games—and the one he didn’t hit double, he had 9.0 points. He’s on a massive tear and only $3,500 today. Avisail Garcia has 20+ DK points in three of his last four games, and is priced affordably against the lefty at only $4,300. Luis Urias and Willy Adames have been on recent power binges, and the embattled Christian Yelich seems to be waking up at the plate recently. I’m even a fan of some Keston Hiura, given his ability to hit the ball hard (when he actually makes contact) and given his affordable price point of $3,900. Go nuts on the Brew Crew today, I say.

Worst play: Houston Astros @ RHP Cal Quantril

Hear me out. The ‘Stros are missing some big bats from their lineup—namely Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez—and they’ve not really seen Quantril, with a total of nine AB of BvP to draw from (two hits, zero homers allowed). Anyway, Houston’s 18.3% K-rate over the last week is a top five mark, which is exactly what we have come to expect from this group. However, the .104 ISO is the worst mark in the league over the last seven days. I’m not saying you should start Quantril. I’m just saying there’s a chance this isn’t the epic play that it is normally, okay? Carlos Correa has been the primary threatening bat of late, but outside of him this group isn’t playing as dangerous as they do normally.

Value Plays: Jace Peterson, Gavin Sheets, Andrew Vaughn, Luis Arraez

Peterson was mentioned already. He COULD be lightly owned due to a lower batting order slot, but I doubt it based on how hot the Brewers are.

Gavin Sheets ($2,700) has been on a tear since he was called up, with a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs to his credit already. He’s projected to bat second for the White Sox, who have generally struggled for offense recently. That’s a top spot in the order against the struggling Matt Manning. Andrew Vaughn should bat fifth, and he’s come alive lately with two homers over his last four games. He’s only 3K today, and over the same four-game stretch he’s got eight hits against only one strikeout over 14 at-bats. These two are a really cheap way to get into that White Sox offense, in a game where their IRT is a healthy 5.16 as of this morning.

Luis Arraez ($3,600) is similar, as he should set the table for Minnesota in a game with a healthy IRT (5.43) going up against RHP Brad Keller, who has not been good this year. With Trevor Larnach ($2,900) also really affordable, I’m leaving my early morning research wishing I could play about 10 outfielders today...

Which way are YOU looking for your MLB DFS lineups today, ladies and gents?