2021 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule Analysis: Quarterbacks

Understanding that the success of a fantasy player has a lot that goes into it—overall skill, injury history, surrounding cast, coaching—I am of firm belief more and more over the last few years that strength of schedule plays a significant role in how well a team and a fantasy player does. This year I am digging into each position’s strength of schedule to see where there might be opportunity hidden underneath a rock.

Below you will see the QB Strength of Schedule rankings. The methodology of this is taking all of the NFL defenses’ yards and touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks from last season. That is aggregated over the total schedule for this year (who each team faces) and then ranked. Patrick Mahomes will put up INSANE yards this year thanks to a pair of matchups against the Raiders, who allowed the fifth-most yards against last year (the Bengals, Broncos, Browns and Chargers were all sub-average opponents in yards allowed).

• The Raiders have a favorable schedule for passing touchdowns allowed, facing the Broncos and Chiefs twice (both among the bottom 10 in TDs allowed last season) and a game against the Bengals and Cowboys (both among the bottom 5 in TDs allowed).
• Meanwhile the Patriots have their work cut out for them as they go against the Chargers and Saints (who were both top 10 defenses in passing yards allowed) and the Dolphins (who allowed the second-fewest passing TDs).

In a Nutshell:

The schedule this year favors: Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Daniel Jones

The schedule this year does not favor (some QB uncertain teams): New England QBs, SF QBs, Carson Wentz, HOU QBs, and Ben Roethlisberger.