clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2021 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule Analysis: Quarterbacks

Derek Carr could put up some serious yards & touchdowns this year.

Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images

Understanding that the success of a fantasy player has a lot that goes into it—overall skill, injury history, surrounding cast, coaching—I am of firm belief more and more over the last few years that strength of schedule plays a significant role in how well a team and a fantasy player does. This year I am digging into each position’s strength of schedule to see where there might be opportunity hidden underneath a rock.

Below you will see the QB Strength of Schedule rankings. The methodology of this is taking all of the NFL defenses’ yards and touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks from last season. That is aggregated over the total schedule for this year (who each team faces) and then ranked. Patrick Mahomes will put up INSANE yards this year thanks to a pair of matchups against the Raiders, who allowed the fifth-most yards against last year (the Bengals, Broncos, Browns and Chargers were all sub-average opponents in yards allowed).

  • The Raiders have a favorable schedule for passing touchdowns allowed, facing the Broncos and Chiefs twice (both among the bottom 10 in TDs allowed last season) and a game against the Bengals and Cowboys (both among the bottom 5 in TDs allowed).
  • Meanwhile the Patriots have their work cut out for them as they go against the Chargers and Saints (who were both top 10 defenses in passing yards allowed) and the Dolphins (who allowed the second-fewest passing TDs).

In a Nutshell:

The schedule this year favors: Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Daniel Jones

The schedule this year does not favor (some QB uncertain teams): New England QBs, SF QBs, Carson Wentz, HOU QBs, and Ben Roethlisberger.

2021 Strength of Schedule - QBs

Row Labels Sum of Pass Yds Sum of Pass TD Rank Pass Yds (1 most favorable; 32nd least favorable) Rank Pass TD (1 most favorable; 32nd least favorable) Avg Rank (1 most favorable; 32nd least favorable)
Row Labels Sum of Pass Yds Sum of Pass TD Rank Pass Yds (1 most favorable; 32nd least favorable) Rank Pass TD (1 most favorable; 32nd least favorable) Avg Rank (1 most favorable; 32nd least favorable)
Raiders 227 224 2 2 2
Chiefs 245 235 6 3 5
Cowboys 250 223 8 1 5
Seahawks 214 252 1 10 6
Giants 233 244 4 7 6
Lions 247 238 7 5 6
Browns 237 252 5 10 8
Buccaneers 259 239 10 6 8
Chargers 263 237 13 4 9
Vikings 232 275 3 20 12
Titans 282 245 18 8 13
Ravens 271 265 15 13 14
Washington Football Team 276 258 16 12 14
Falcons 265 268 14 17 16
Bengals 260 275 11 20 16
Bears 282 266 18 14 16
Packers 251 278 9 23 16
Jets 314 247 24 9 17
Eagles 261 277 12 22 17
Rams 308 268 23 17 20
Bills 314 268 24 17 21
Panthers 291 278 20 23 22
Saints 325 267 29 15 22
Jaguars 331 267 30 15 23
Broncos 277 308 17 31 24
Cardinals 297 287 21 28 25
Dolphins 322 280 27 25 26
Steelers 306 299 22 30 26
Texans 319 281 26 26 26
Colts 331 283 30 27 29
49ers 324 289 28 29 29
Patriots 346 320 32 32 32