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MLB DFS: Best/worst plays for Wednesday, June 30th

Skyler gives his early insight for Wednesday’s 10-game main slate on DraftKings.

Boston Red Sox v Houston Astros Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

What a difference a day can make in MLB DFS. On Tuesday, we had an expansive selection of pitchers to choose from on a 15-game slate. Contrary to what we got on Tuesday, we have a limited number of trustworthy pitchers to choose from on Wednesday. It is a 10-game slate on Wednesday and the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings happens to be Chris Bassitt of the Oakland Athletics. No offense to Bassitt, he’s probably a nice guy, but I likely won’t have many shares of him due to the bats I want to fit into my lineup. The clash between the Kansas City Royals and the Boston Red Sox is the only game that has potential weather issues, so I would make sure to keep up with any updates throughout the day.

Pitching

Favorite pitcher: Shohei Ohtani ($8,700) @ New York Yankees

What can’t Shohei Ohtani do? The front-runner for AL MVP is leading the league in home runs and he will take the mound for his 12th start of the season on Wednesday against the New York Yankees. The do-it-all superstar has gone 5+ IP in all but three of his starts this season, and he’s also struck out at least seven batters in all but three starts. While the Yankees have RHB that can mash, Ohtani owns a 38.1% strikeout rate and a 0.87 WHIP to RHB on the road thus far. New York also has the ninth-highest strikeout rate to RHP this season. Even if Ohtani gives up a couple of runs to New York, he can offset them by racking up Ks, as he’s done consistently in his historic campaign in 2021.

Second-favorite pitcher: Luis Garcia ($9,900) vs. Baltimore Orioles

With the lack of pitching options available to us, I guess I’ll have to play starting pitcher on the Houston Astros that faces the Baltimore Orioles. The plan backfired in back-to-back nights with Zack Greinke struggling and Jose Urquidy exiting early with an injury on Tuesday. Third time’s the charm, right? For Wednesday, we get Luis Garcia, who has performed well at home this season. In his second year in the majors, Garcia is recording 0.87 HR/9 and a 3.74 xFIP at home so far, compared to 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.49 xFIP on the road. The good news for us is that Garcia has gone 5+ IP in eight of his last nine starts. Even though my plan of using Astros pitchers hasn’t panned out this week, the Orioles don’t have a menacing lineup. Baltimore is currently slashing .219/.288/.368 to RHP this season.

Least-favorite pitcher: Mike Minor ($8,900) @ Boston Red Sox

Who is in charge of pricing on DraftKings, cause I want to know why Mike Minor is priced at nearly $9,000 and above Ohtani? Minor is slated to start versus the Red Sox on Wednesday, in what is expected to be an extremely hot game at Fenway that could have weather concerns. Regardless of whether or not mother nature creates obstacles for the game to be played, I’ll have no shares of Minor. The veteran southpaw for the Royals has allowed 7+ hits in four out of his last five starts, and he’s surrendered 4+ ER in three out of his last five. Boston has hit lefties remarkably well this season, and Minor is posting 1.51 HR/9 to RHB so far, with the Red Sox having plenty of righties that can do damage. Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo are lefties that have done well against southpaws too.

Hitting

Favorite team to stack: Houston Astros vs. RHP Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey somehow being able to finesse a job in the MLB in recent seasons remains one of the biggest mysteries to me. Nevertheless, he remains a prime pitcher to target in MLB DFS when he takes the mound. Harvey currently boasts a dismal 7.54 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP for the Orioles in 2021. Even with Harvey pitching more than five innings just twice since the beginning of May, he’s still given up 3+ ER in all but one of his last nine appearances. It doesn’t get any easier for Harvey on Wednesday versus the hard-hitting Astros. The main targets in Houston’s lineup are Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel. Mix in Myles Straw and Abraham Toro—or whoever the Astros elect to roll out—to get exposure to their entire lineup.

Second-favorite team to stack: Toronto Blue Jays vs. LHP Justus Sheffield

In just about every team hitting stat, the top two teams are the Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays. Sadly, for Justus Sheffield, he’ll have to square off with the Blue Jays on the road on Wednesday. Toronto has a .259/.327/.427 slash line to southpaws this season, and despite surprisingly having the league’s lowest hard-contact rate so far, the Blue Jays have the 12th highest hard-contact rate in the past month. As for Sheffield, he’s sporting a career-worst 17.2% strikeout rate, and 1.72 HR/9 for the Seattle Mariners. The Blue Jays have guys like Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Teoscar Hernandez that have thrived versus southpaws this season. Randall Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel are other members of the Blue Jays to insert in your lineups.

Favorite one-off: Jean Segura ($3,400) vs. RHP Jordan Holloway

Another pricing mishap by DraftKings is at the second-base position. Even though he’s returning from an injury, Jean Segura shouldn’t be $3,400, especially with how he was hitting the ball prior to getting hurt. Before his stint on the injured list, Segura had gotten a hit in nine out of his 10 appearances in June. During the month of June, Segura is hitting .372 with eight RBIs, along with four extra-base hits (three doubles, one triple), and two stolen bases. While Jordan Holloway hasn’t been awful for the Miami Marlins, Segura has a 167 wRC+ and a .968 OPS to RHP at home.

Second-favorite one-off: Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) vs. LHP Mike Minor

If the Red Sox and Royals get their game in on Wednesday, there's a good chance that I have a fair share of Boston hitters in my lineups. For someone looking to get a one-off from the Red Sox, Hunter Renfroe against Minor is a juicy matchup. Renfroe has been dominating lefties this season to the tune of an impressive .347 AVG, a 1.072 OPS, and a 189 wRC+. Minor has been susceptible to getting rocked recently and Renfroe provides some salary relief in the outfield on Wednesday.

Do you believe my luck will continue to run thin with Astros pitching? And who is everyone else targeting on Wednesday’s 10-game slate?