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MLB DFS: Best/worst plays for Tuesday, June 29th

Skyler takes an early look at Tuesday’s loaded 15-game main slate on DraftKings.

Houston Astros v Baltimore Orioles Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

It was a nine-game slate on Monday, and besides two or three notable pitchers, there were slim pickings at the position in MLB DFS. That shouldn’t be an issue on Tuesday, as 15 games are scheduled to be played, with plenty of quality options to choose from for both pitcher spots on DraftKings. The dreaded Coors game will be on the main slate, meaning that we could possibly see some ownership from the Colorado Rockies and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Though, with 15 games on the slate, ownership will be spread out by default. I won’t be going out of my way to get shares of either team, especially with German Marquez on the mound for the Rockies (I’ll explain later in the article), and Pittsburgh’s lineup isn’t full of guys I’m rushing to insert in my lineup. With all of the premier choices at pitcher, let’s dive into who I’m liking the most on Tuesday.

Pitching

Favorite pitcher: Jose Urquidy ($9,900) vs. Baltimore Orioles

I should note that I do like Brandon Woodruff on DraftKings, but I do believe you can get more bang for your buck by saving salary for other guys. Jose Urquidy is $1,100 cheaper than Woodruff and he gets an excellent matchup in the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday. In seven of his last nine starts, Urquidy has gone 6+ IP, and he’s scored 20+ points on DraftKings in his last three starts (including 29.4 against the Orioles in his last start). Urquidy is currently sporting a 0.96 WHIP (0.79 at home) and only a 26.1% hard contact rate. Baltimore owns the fourth-lowest OBP and the fifth-worst wRC+ to RHP in the past month.

Second-favorite pitcher: Kevin Gausman ($9,600) @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Kevin Gausman does not care who he pitches against, as he’s putting together a Cy Young-worthy campaign for the San Francisco Giants. The former member of the Orioles has been flat-out dominant, notching 0.65 HR/9 (0.44 on the road), a .209 BABIP, a 0.77 WHIP, and a 30.8% strikeout rate. Despite having tough matchups on his schedule, especially in the NL West, Gausman has eclipsed 20+ points on DraftKings in all but two of his 15 starts this season. While the Los Angeles Dodgers — who are getting healthier — present a stiff challenge for Gausman, the veteran pitcher has shown he’s essentially matchup-proof in 2021.

Third-favorite pitcher: German Marquez ($7,700) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Some people tend to stray away from using pitchers in the Coors game, but I’ll actually be playing Marquez because he’s going to be pitching at home. What Marquez is doing within the confines at Coors is truly impressive. Up to this point, Marquez has allowed only 0.32 HR/9 at home compared to 1.30 HR/9 on the road. He’s also registering a 28.3% hard contact rate at home compared to a 35.7% hard contact rate on the road. Marquez doesn’t have much strikeout upside, but he’s inducing a 54.1% ground ball rate and a minuscule 25.4% fly ball rate this season. To put the cherry on top, the Pirates have the fifth-lowest hard contact rate and the fifth-highest ground ball rate to RHP in the last 30 days, feeding right into Marquez’s strengths.

Hitting

Favorite team to stack: Houston Astros vs. LHP Alexander Wells

For the past week, the Houston Astros have made it onto my list of favorite stacks to use. Not to sound like a broken record, but the Astros top the list once again versus a southpaw in Alexander Wells. Wells wasn’t an overly impressive prospect in the minors and it’s tough to get a read on him, as he’s only pitched a mere two innings this season. Provided that, the Orioles could be conducting a bullpen game, which should give the Astros a prime chance to score a ton of runs. With Wells being a lefty, some people may gravitate toward the right-handed batters in Houston’s lineup. While getting exposure to everyone on the Astros is a wise move, don’t be afraid to use the left-handed batters in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, especially since Wells likely won’t be going deep into the game.

Second-favorite team to stack: Boston Red Sox vs. RHP Brad Keller

Pitchers that don’t strike guys out often and rely on inducing ground balls are bound to get rocked at some point. Brad Keller has been able to survive in previous seasons with this approach, but it is beginning to catch up to him. The 25-year-old pitcher is currently producing a massive .362 BABIP, along with career-worst marks in barrel rate (11%) and hard hit rate (45.9%). It won’t get any easier for Keller on Tuesday, as he squares off versus the Boston Red Sox. Boston has the eighth-best wRC+ and the third-highest ISO to RHP this season. J.D. Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers are the primary targets on the Red Sox. Enrique Hernandez, Christian Vazquez, and Bobby Dalbec are all worth considering as well.

Favorite one-off: Tony Kemp ($3,500) vs. RHP Mike Foltynewicz

Nearly a week ago, I listed the Oakland Athletics as one of my favorite stacks to use against Mike Foltynewicz. The Athletics would disappoint on the road, but I’m going right back to targeting Foltynewicz on Tuesday. If I’m not using an Oakland stack in my lineups, Tony Kemp is a viable one-off on DraftKings at $3,500. Kemp has 2B/OF eligibility, making him a nice salary-saving selection at either position. Kemp has been batting leadoff often against RHP and there’s no reason to believe he won’t on Tuesday. The veteran utility player has a .372 wOBA and a 142 wRC+ to RHP this season.

Second-favorite one-off: Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($3,700) @ RHP Vince Velasquez

On a massive 15-game slate, there is bound to be an endless supply of salary-relief options at each position. One team that could go a bit overlooked with the number of games being played is the Miami Marlins. Miami gets to face Vince Velasquez on Tuesday, who is surrendering 1.58 HR/9 this season. While Velasquez has reverse splits, I’m still going to use Jazz Chisholm Jr. in a few of my lineups. Chisholm should be batting leadoff for the Marlins and he has a .347 wOBA, a .206 ISO, and a 126 wRC+ versus RHP this season.