We hear it every year, "This guy's career is over, he won’t hit past the Mendoza line this year," or "He’s not slowing down, ever. Is it too early to give him the MVP?" And every year, they almost always hit over .200 and they almost always slow down. I know it's a cliché, but do not overreact to small sample sizes. You usually just look like an idiot. But below isn’t about not overreacting, it’s quite the opposite. I want to look at four players where it is okay to overreact, without making a fool out of yourself.

Franmil Reyes, OF/DH

For the past few seasons, Reyes has been a guy you could count on for some pop. It’s more of the same plus some this season as his SLG is up to .614 with five home runs. He’s in the top 94% for both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity and the 96th percentile for barrel%. There are two things I have noticed that he has changed from last year. First, his quality of contact and whiff rates have improved on pitches at the top of the strike zone. As pitchers have thrown more and more pitches higher in the strike zone, it is something that could be key for Reyes’ results so far. As well, his whiff rate, in general, has been a minimal but noticeable development, ranking in the top 11 percent as opposed to a dismal top 3% last year. I’m excited to see Reyes continue his hot streak for a whole 162 games.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B/SS

After a down year during the shortened season, many just thought it was a classic example of the covid slump. And then...he got worse. Last year, his average plummeted but he was able to keep his power numbers at a still disappointing but respectable level. Now, it seems like Suarez forgot how to hit with a slash line of .141/.253./.308. Maybe he’s been a product of bad luck you say. Well, he has amassed a .195 BABIP, but I argue it has to do more with the quality of balls he’s putting in play rather than whether the balls are finding holes; his line drive rate is at 9.1%, his average exit velocity is 86.3, and his hard hit rate is at 34.1%. Adding another problem to the mess is he’s striking out more than ever, 38.5%. These have combined to give him an xBA and xSLG of .173 and .399, respectively. It’s too early to give up on Suarez, but I don’t have a lot of hope at this point.

Michael Fulmer, SP/RP

It’s been awhile since Michael Fulmer has been talked about in fantasy circles. I think it’s time we start talking about him again. He started the year in the bullpen until an injury to Julio Teheran opened up a rotation spot for him, which he will probably keep in the long term even when Teheran returns. On the surface, his numbers compared to last year are night and day, with a 3.32 ERA, 8.05 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, 1.42 HR/9. Looking deeper into the matter, there are some differences he’s made in his pitches and pitch sequencing. His fastball is back up over 95 mph and his slider and curveball are breaking a lot more than last season. As well, he made his slider his primary pitch, throwing it 34.5% of the time instead of his mediocre slider. These changes have combined for a 3.31 xERA. He might not get the wins- the Tigers' offense is pretty appalling if you haven’t noticed- but he should be able to keep a good K:BB ratio and an above-average ERA.

Zach Plesac, SP

Zach Plesac had a very good 2020. The problem is, I don’t think that’s the real Zach Plesac. I think the real Plesac resembles more of the guy who has an ugly 6.75 ERA and 4.89 xERA thus far. The reasons for the inflated stats are obvious. After posting a 6.85K/9 in 19’, it skyrocketed to 9.27 the year after. But, so far it has come tumbling back down to 6.75. You see, his pitches don’t break that much and he doesn’t throw that hard. He was able to strike people out last year because he was in the 90th percentile for chase rate. My theory is simple; hitters adjusted, stopped chasing, and it wasn’t all that hard considering his pitches don't spin. I don't think he’ll ever see high strikeout numbers again and even with his low walk rates, he doesn’t limit hard contact enough to get good results.