3M Open: Expert Picks

Tournament Information:

3M Open
Date: July 23^rd – 26^th
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Purse: $6.6MM ($1.2MM to winner)
FedEx points: 500 to winner
2019 Winner: Matthew Wolfe (-21)

Course

TPC Twin Cities opened in 2000 as an Arnold Palmer design (in conjunction with Tom Lehman). It is a long course registering at 7,468 yards, a par 71 with a course rating of 75.4 and a slope rating of 143. This former farmland is layered with water (27 bodies) and plenty of mature trees. The fairways and greens feature bentgrass and elsewhere there is a native prairie grass. The target hole will be the 7th hole which has large beach bunkers and greens that are raised. This course should produce a hefty amount of birdies.

My Starting 4

Matthew Wolff (1st selection this year) — Given that this is the 2nd year of this tournament, there is not a lot of history to go off. Furthermore, there have not been many other GPA Tour tournaments played in Minnesota so the historical sample is limited. Wolff has missed a few cuts lately (RBC Heritage, Travelers Championship and Workday Charity) but he also has had 3rd, 2nd, and 22nd place finishes mixed in there as well. He’s 16th in strokes gained off the tee and 7th in driving distance but his putting game and work around the green is really hurting him.

Tony Finau (2nd selection this year) — Finau was doing great down the final stretch at the Memorial Tournament, with his distance on drives, he should have another good year here, he was 23rd last year.

Dustin Johnson (2nd selection this year) — Johnson missed the cut at the Memorial Tournament under a tough course with very fast greens. He tends to rebound well after missed cuts: After his last five he has rebounded with 17th, 51st and 1st place finishes. He didn’t play here last year but he is 24th on the tour in driving distance and currently 4th in OWGR.

Brooks Koepka (1st selection this year) — This seems like a course built for Johnson and Koepka. Koepka (currently 19th in driving distance, 20th in strokes gained off the tee) is primed for a solid finish as he’s currently 154th in FedEx but 6th in OWGR. He has one top 20 finish on tour this year and I think this will be his 2nd.

My Bench 2

Wyndham Clark (2nd selection this year) — This is a long shot as Clark has withdrawn or missed the cut in four of his last five tournaments. He is currently 105th in FedEx ranking and 162 in OWGR. That said, he’s also 28th in driving distance and he’s one of the better putters on the tour. He finished 5th here last year.

Patrick Rodgers (2nd selection this year) — Rodgers is in a bit of a funk right now with missed cuts in three of his last five tournaments but he was in a steady strong stretch leading up to the interruption in March and this tournament could help him regain that traction. Rodgers is 16th in driving distance, 11th in strokes gained putting and 48th in strokes gained off the tee.

Fun Fact: This course hosted the 3M championship (Champions tour) for 18 years prior to moving to the PGA Tour last year.

2020 Stats

Starting 4: Avg finish 47th (33^rd percentile)
Bench 2: Avg finish 63^rd (45th percentile)