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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Expert Picks

Paul Casey checks all the boxes

PGA: U.S. Open - Third Round Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Tournament Information

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Date: February 6th-9th
Course: Pebble Beach GL; Monterey Peninsula CC; Spyglass Hill GC
Purse: $7.8MM ($1.4MM to winner)
FedEx points: 500 to winner
2019 Winner: Phil Mickelson (-19)

Course

Pebble Beach Golf Links built in 1919 by Harold Sampson, this tournament consists of one round on each of the three courses:

Pebble Beach GL – This par 72, 6,816 yard course was built in 1919 and designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant, this course has a fun mix of the water and the cliffs. The dance between the water on one side and rough on the other makes this one a challenge for players.

Monterey Peninsula CC – This par 71, 6,958 yard course opened in 1926 designed by Bob Baldock and Jack Neville, this course is quite the change from Pebble Beach in that it’s lined with trees and much more condensed.

Spyglass Hill GC – This par 72, 6,858 yard course was designed by Robert Trent Jones this course dances along the coast as well with some scenic views of the water. It is known for the first five holes which will test the golfers right off the start.

PGA: U.S. Open - Final Round Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

My Starting 4

Paul Casey (1st selection this year) — Want the lock at this tournament? Here it is, Paul landed in the top 10 the last two years here and he has been in the top 25 during the two tournaments he played in January. Casey has never been the best Putter on tour but his driver is top 5.

Jason Day (1st selection this year) — Jason has been arguably the best here over the last three years where he finished in the top 5 each year. He doesn’t have a lot of 2020 tournaments under his belt which could lead to some rust. His one tournament he played was a 16th place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open giving a vote of confidence there. Day has the driver and putter to succeed.

Russell Knox (1st selection this year) — Russell has landed in the top 35 in four tournaments in January. Add to that he has been in the top 15 at AT&T the last two years. Russell was 32nd on the tour in strokes gained tee to green last year, a lot of this was driven off how accurate he is off the tee.

Cameron Champ (1st selection this year) — Cameron has been riding a solid January with a 14th place finish at Sentry Tournament of Champs, 21st place finish at the American Express and 16th place finish at Farmers Insurance Open. He finished 28th at Pebble Beach last year.

My Bench 2

Tom Hoge (1st selection this year) — Tom is my equivalent of Sebastian last week. I’m not overtly confident he makes the cut (which is why he’s on the bench) given he missed the cut the last two years here. With that said, he is among the best golfers in January so far with every finish landing in the top 25, riding a hot hand here. Tom is 11th in total strokes gained on the tour this year and it’s spread from his approaching the green to putting and tee to green (all top 25).

Matthew NeSmith (1st selection this year) — Matthew is in his first “legit” year on the PGA Tour (in that he has played more than a handful of tournaments). Needless to say, what he lacks as experience at Pebble Beach, he makes up for with a strong January where he has been in the top 35 in each tournament so far and only has one round above par over that time. NeSmith is 34th in greens in regulation percentage this season and 52nd in strokes gained total behind his strong putting.


2019 Stats:

Starting 4: Avg finish 44th (30th percentile)
Bench 2: Avg finish 73rd (50th percentile)