Welcome to my NFL Week 17 bold predictions. Every week I give five bold fantasy football predictions and then grade them on a scale of A-D on how successful they were.
Here’s what I got to close out the season:
1. Baker Mayfield will be a top 10 QB this week vs the Steelers
Justification: Baker’s career vs. Pittsburgh isn’t pretty: one win and three loses, six touchdowns to four interceptions, 12 sacks, and an average of 172 yards per game. Pittsburgh’s defense is elite, but they are also hurt and this is a do-or-die game for the Brownies. Covid will plague this game but I think a different Cleveland team behind Mayfield comes in big.
2. Corey Davis is a top 12 WR this week vs the Texans
Justification: I had as many receiving yards as Corey did last week. That said let me overview his last six weeks: 5/7-113; 3/3-70; 11/12-182-1; 3/3-34; 6/4-110-1; 0/2-0. Every other week he shines and this week he comes to Houston (giving up the seventh most points to opposing wide receivers) in a must win game for the Titans.
3. Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants over/under is 44.5, give me the over at 49.5
Justification: Dallas is averaging almost 36 points over their last three games while allowing almost 20 over that time. The Giants are the bigger issue having dropped three straight but with some underlying issues (McCoy started one game, they faced the Ravens one game and Jones was nursing an injury through the Cardinals game). I’m betting this game turns into a shootout.
4. Aaron Jones finishes outside the top 12 RB this week vs the Bears
Justification: Call this a gut feeling more than anything else. Green Bay has clinched a playoff spot (albeit unknown as to where) they face a strong rush defense in Chicago and Jones has a nagging hip injury. With A.J. Dillion coming off a stellar game, this could be a rest spot for Jones.
5. Jack Doyle is a top 10 TE this week vs the Jaguars
Justification: Jacksonville has allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends over the last six weeks. Doyle had three catches three weeks ago for 44 yards and six catches last week for 50 yards.
Week 16 Outcomes
1. Tua Tagovailoa is a top 10 QB this week. Outcome: Tua was benched after 94 yard 1 TD and completing 17/22 pass attempts. Grade D.
2. Calvin Ridley finishes outside the top 10 this week. Outcome: Calvin did eclipse 100 receiving yards which I did not think he would do. He didn’t score and fell to 16th among WRs. Grade A.
3. Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis over/under is 44, give me the over at 49.5pts. Outcome: Both teams went off on a 28-24 affair finishing with 52 total points. Grade A.
4. Giovani Bernard is a top 12 RB this week. Outcome: Gio had over 60 yards in receiving AND rushing finishing as the 9th best RB. Grade A.
5. Dalton Schultz is a top 10 TE this week vs the Eagles. Outcome: We knew he was TD dependent going into this performance. He had 21 yards and while. Grade D.
Grade A: 28 times
Grade B: 12 times
Grade C: 7 times
Grade D: 33 times