Just a refresher – I will provide 5 bold predictions each week. I will grade those 5 bold picks on the old elementary scale of grades A-D. This is definitively a weird week, at my last count we have nearly 53 players league wide who are out with Covid so we could see some odd trends this week.
Here are my top five bold predictions for NFL Week 11.
1. Matthew Stafford finishes as a top 10 quarterback this week
Justification: Matthew Stafford will be coming into Carolina with a three touchdown performance in two of his last three games. Carolina has allowed 3+ touchdowns in the last two games allowing Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady to throw for 325+ yards. The thumb injury is a concern but after he suffered it last week he threw for 22 of 30 passes, 216 yards and two scores.
2. Davante Adams will finish outside the top 10 vs the Colts
Justification: He’s on quite a run with seven touchdowns in his last four games but he faces a formidable Colts defense who has successfully minimized DJ Chark, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry and Marquise Brown. Sure Adams is better than those players but only one wide receiver has had 100+yards and a touchdown against them and I think Adams is limited to one or the other this week.
3. Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions has the Panthers -1.5, give me the Lions - 4.5
Justification: The Panthers are in free fall right now. They have lost four out of their five home games this season and their average margin of defeat during the current five game losing streak is 8.6 points. Detroit meanwhile has had three of their four wins on the road with an average margin of win of 10.
4. Salvon Ahmed finishes inside the top 12 at running back vs the Broncos
Justification: I understand the risk inherent in this. There is a chance Matt Brieda returns and there is a chance the Dolphins shift to Malcolm Perry or Lynn Bosden or even Patrick Laird. That said, I think this week goes to Ahmed as he gets a nice three week rally in his current spot. Denver’s rush defense has allowed six touchdowns to running backs over the last three weeks and this could be a good opportunity for Ahmed to thrive alongside Tua Tagovailoa.
5. Logan Thomas finishes the top tight end this week with a season high number of points
Justification: Thomas is arguably a top 15 tight end in the league this year. He faces a Bengals team who has allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends over the last five weeks including three 50+ yard games to them.
Week 10 Outcome
1.) Kyler Murray is ranked as the #1 QB this week, I think he finishes outside the top 8. Outcome: I was feeling real good about this pick until a 54 yard hail mary boosted him up about 3 spots. Grade C.
2.) Travis Fulgham is listed as the 21st best WR this week. He finishes in the top 10. Outcome: One. Measly. Point. This one infuriated me. The Giants defense came in strong and Carson Wentz stunk it up. Grade D.
3.) Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns has an over/under of 48.5, give me the over at 54.5. Outcome: A second game that Cleveland could not achieve the over because of weather. Twisting winds wreaked havoc on this game with just 17 total points. Grade D.
4.) Leonard Fournette is listed as the 13th best RB, he finishes as a top 5. Outcome: As was the trend of this week, this one stunk. It seemed everyone EXCEPT Leonard had quite the game: Ronald Jones, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Tom Brady etc…Grade D.
5.) Jordan Reed is projected as the 15th best TE, he finishes among the top 7. Outcome: At least I got something right. Reed had 5 receptions for 62 yards finishing 5th. Grade A.
Grade A: 17 times
Grade B: 8 times
Grade C: 6 times
Grade D: 19 times