Full docket of games today (15) all after the normal 7:00pm evening time. The highest of the pitchers is Jacob DeGrom ($11,000 @ Atlanta), the lowliest of which is Mike Pelfrey ($5,500 @ Kansas City). To recap - my first set of picks were quite possibly the worst someone could pick, I rebounded by selecting Jose Quintana on his best outing of the year, let's see how this week goes.
Side note - I'm avoiding Baltimore vs. Boston - there is too much volatility there and with the emotional state anything could happen.
Weather (as of now):
Milwaukee at St. Louis - AVOID AVOID AVOID - it will be well saturated in that park tonight.
It's a bit unconventional, it's off the radar but stick with me on this.
1. He knows the Mets well and they know him well, personally I think that's to his advantage, not theirs. He is experienced enough to tailor his pitching to each player. He knows where the weak spots are in the lineup and how to expose them.
2. This is only his second home start this year: in his first one (granted he faced the Padrs) he posted a sub 2 ERA and it was right after a shelling against Miami Marlins. In the Padres matchup he struck out 6 with 1 ER for his one win of the year, it's fairly similar to his current situation (off a shelling against Milwaukee back at home again).
3. The Mets have scored the 13th fewest runs this year, hardly a juggernaut offense. Management has made questionable decisions and they are struggling to regain traction right now. They have been outscored 49-27 over their last 5 games (aided by a 23-5 whopping from Washington) and after a 9 run effort last night, I can see them going cold again tonight.
4. Colon is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA against the Mets.
Another Target: I think Jared Weaver could be a solid pick as well tonight, he has a decent track record against many of the Colorado batters.
1. He's on the road (2 road starts this year yielded 6 ER at Arizona and 7 ER at Colorado).
2. A number of LAD players are batting at least .300 on him over at least 5 AB. (Justin Turner, Chase Utley, Yasiel Puig, Enrique Hernandez).
3. He had a great start last time ... against the Padres, easy to be fooled by that. (Ironic that solid starts from Colon and Samardzija have me going in different directions here).
Three Hitters I like:
- Yunel Escobar ($2,700) as the 26th most expensive 3rd basement he boasts a .348 average over 23 at Bats against Hisashi Iwakuma, I'd say he feels good about this matchup.
- JT Realmuto ($2,600) Russell Martin ($3,100) at the 7th most expensive Catcher is a decent value, he does well against CC, but JT is now 0/10 over his last 3 games and I have a hunch tonight he unleashed a few dingers.
- Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) I feel like it's going to be a rough outing for Blake Snell and company so I'm doubling down on the Marlins.
By Selecting these three I was also able to get Paul Goldschmidt (hitting .667 over 12 AB against Gio Gonzalez) and Robinson Cano (hitting .400 against Ricky Nolasco).
Two hitters I'd avoid:
• Trea Turner ($4,200) - hitting a meager .143 against Robbie Ray and his Run streak will end at some point - you can put that money elsewhere.
• Anthony Rizzo ($4,300) - First he's been struggling over the last few weeks, second he is 0 for 8 against Jared Eickhoff.