2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

The Stranders

Whatta strand, whatta strand, whatta mighty mighty good strand.

By Jack Cecil Dec 14, 2015, 10:51am EST

Strand rate is frequently cited as one of the measurements of luck for pitchers. Sometimes a pitcher experiences a spike, or serious drop, and it gives an opportunity for fantasy owners to anticipate better or worse production in the following season.

Typically, abnormally high strand rates are highly correlated with players whose ERA's out performed their FIPs and xFIPs. For example, only one pitcher out of the top 15 strand rates had a better FIP than ERA (Max Scherzer). None of the top 15 strand rate pitchers had an ERA over 4 last year.

#	Name	Team	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
1	Zack Greinke	Dodgers	86.50%	1.66	2.76	3.22
2	John Lackey	Cardinals	82.60%	2.77	3.57	3.77
3	Wei-Yin Chen	Orioles	80.50%	3.34	4.16	4.01
4	Jake Arrieta	Cubs	80.00%	1.77	2.35	2.61
5	Hector Santiago	Angels	79.90%	3.59	4.77	5
6	James Shields	Padres	79.90%	3.91	4.45	3.7
7	Dan Haren	- - -	79.80%	3.6	4.61	4.69
8	Max Scherzer	Nationals	79.60%	2.79	2.77	2.88
9	Dallas Keuchel	Astros	79.40%	2.48	2.91	2.75
10	Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	79.20%	3.13	4.4	4.93
11	Lance Lynn	Cardinals	78.90%	3.03	3.44	3.9
12	Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	78.80%	3.01	3.21	3.28
13	Matt Harvey	Mets	78.70%	2.71	3.05	3.24
14	Nate Karns	Rays	78.70%	3.67	4.09	3.9
15	David Price	- - -	78.60%	2.45	2.78	3.24

While holding runners on, pickoffs, and a speedy delivery to home are all important when it comes to stopping runners from scoring, the ability to maintain your velocity, movement, location, and release point are still the core of stranding runners. When you look at the bottom 15 strand rates, you find pitchers who all had notable issues last year.

#	Name	Team	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
1	Drew Hutchison	Blue Jays	64.50%	5.57	4.42	4.21
2	Andrew Cashner	Padres	65.60%	4.34	3.85	3.84
3	Matt Garza	Brewers	65.60%	5.63	4.94	4.5
4	Colby Lewis	Rangers	65.90%	4.66	4.17	4.62
5	Jeff Locke	Pirates	67.10%	4.49	3.95	3.94
6	Jeff Samardzija	White Sox	67.20%	4.96	4.23	4.31
7	Chris Rusin	Rockies	67.20%	5.33	4.71	4.21
8	Rick Porcello	Red Sox	67.50%	4.92	4.13	3.72
9	Taijuan Walker	Mariners	67.80%	4.56	4.07	3.82
10	Alfredo Simon	Tigers	67.80%	5.05	4.77	4.78
11	John Danks	White Sox	68.10%	4.71	4.49	4.65
12	Chris Tillman	Orioles	68.20%	4.99	4.45	4.58
13	Michael Pineda	Yankees	68.60%	4.37	3.34	2.95
14	Kyle Kendrick	Rockies	68.60%	6.32	6.12	5.09
15	Kyle Lohse	Brewers	68.70%	5.85	5.12	4.48

I wrote about Samardzija last week and found that he was likely tipping his pitches, (EDITORS NOTE: Samardzija has stated that he was tipping his pitches) , but there are some obvious characteristics of the worst stranding pitchers. Everyone but Alfredo Simon and Taijuan Walker pitch in a hitters park, and while not a statistical evaluation, these guys were generally considered "not good" last year.

Taijuan Walker finished last season as a man on fire, and will not be cheap in 2016, but Michael Pineda might be my favorite target in 2016. He produced mediocre fantasy results, but his stat line was so interesting that I see the potential for a very high ceiling. His main issues were that he gave up his highest line drive rate (21.9%) and hard hit rate (29.7%), but he also radically changed his batted ball profile, and saw hitters hit fewer fly balls than every before. Fly balls can sometimes fly over the wall, and Yankee Stadium is not forgiving, making me think Pineda made good adjustments in 2015, and was just unlucky when it came to his fantasy results. Pair that with his also excellent strikeout and walk numbers, and you have yourself a great arm to buy low on in upcoming drafts.

Another interesting discovery was the difference between players 2014 and 2015 strand rates. Ideally I would have been able to also have the players career strand rate, but seeing the difference between a player's rate from year to year shows the value of this stat even though its unscored in fantasy. Below are the 77 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title in 2014 and 2015.

Rank	Name	2015	2014	15-14
1	Dan Haren	79.80%	65.70%	14.1%
2	A.J. Burnett	77.80%	67.50%	10.3%
3	John Lackey	82.60%	72.60%	10.0%
4	Phil Hughes	78.10%	70.10%	8.0%
5	Nathan Eovaldi	72.80%	65.50%	7.3%
6	Jose Quintana	76.30%	69.20%	7.1%
7	Zack Greinke	86.50%	79.70%	6.8%
8	Kyle Gibson	73.00%	66.30%	6.7%
9	David Price	78.60%	72.70%	5.9%
10	Jake Arrieta	80.00%	74.20%	5.8%
11	James Shields	79.90%	74.60%	5.3%
12	Scott Kazmir	75.70%	71.10%	4.6%
13	Marco Estrada	79.20%	74.60%	4.6%
14	Justin Verlander	70.90%	66.80%	4.1%
15	Dallas Keuchel	79.40%	75.50%	3.9%
16	Jake Odorizzi	77.00%	73.40%	3.6%
17	C.J. Wilson	73.80%	70.50%	3.3%
18	Wei-Yin Chen	80.50%	77.50%	3.0%
19	Yovani Gallardo	77.20%	74.70%	2.5%
20	Max Scherzer	79.60%	77.20%	2.4%
21	Sonny Gray	76.80%	74.50%	2.3%
22	Jorge de la Rosa	72.90%	70.80%	2.1%
23	Madison Bumgarner	77.90%	75.80%	2.1%
24	J.A. Happ	75.40%	73.60%	1.8%
25	Bartolo Colon	71.90%	70.20%	1.7%
26	Chris Archer	73.10%	71.60%	1.5%
27	Gerrit Cole	74.90%	73.50%	1.4%
28	Gio Gonzalez	72.10%	71.00%	1.1%
29	Felix Hernandez	77.80%	77.00%	0.8%
30	Lance Lynn	78.90%	78.10%	0.8%
31	Jacob deGrom	78.00%	77.40%	0.6%
32	R.A. Dickey	73.30%	73.40%	-0.1%
33	Francisco Liriano	74.20%	74.70%	-0.5%
34	Mike Leake	74.80%	75.50%	-0.7%
35	Matt Garza	65.60%	66.60%	-1.0%
36	Tyson Ross	74.00%	75.10%	-1.1%
37	Jordan Zimmermann	74.50%	75.80%	-1.3%
38	Danny Duffy	75.80%	77.20%	-1.4%
39	Trevor Bauer	71.60%	73.20%	-1.6%
40	Tom Koehler	71.90%	73.50%	-1.6%
41	Ryan Vogelsong	70.50%	72.30%	-1.8%
42	Collin McHugh	74.30%	76.10%	-1.8%
43	Kyle Kendrick	68.60%	70.50%	-1.9%
44	Julio Teheran	73.80%	75.90%	-2.1%
45	Wade Miley	69.70%	72.10%	-2.4%
46	Ian Kennedy	71.60%	74.00%	-2.4%
47	Jeremy Guthrie	69.60%	72.40%	-2.8%
48	Colby Lewis	65.90%	69.00%	-3.1%
49	Jon Niese	71.50%	74.60%	-3.1%
50	Garrett Richards	71.80%	74.90%	-3.1%
51	Shelby Miller	73.80%	76.90%	-3.1%
52	Clayton Kershaw	78.30%	81.60%	-3.3%
53	Matt Shoemaker	74.10%	77.50%	-3.4%
54	John Danks	68.10%	71.90%	-3.8%
55	Kyle Lohse	68.70%	72.60%	-3.9%
56	Carlos Carrasco	71.80%	75.90%	-4.1%
57	Jon Lester	71.80%	76.10%	-4.3%
58	Edinson Volquez	73.10%	77.50%	-4.4%
59	Jesse Chavez	72.00%	76.70%	-4.7%
60	Yordano Ventura	72.50%	77.30%	-4.8%
61	Rick Porcello	67.50%	72.40%	-4.9%
62	Aaron Harang	69.70%	74.80%	-5.1%
63	Jason Hammel	72.80%	78.30%	-5.5%
64	Masahiro Tanaka	74.00%	79.50%	-5.5%
65	Jeff Locke	67.10%	72.70%	-5.6%
66	Jeff Samardzija	67.20%	73.20%	-6.0%
67	Cole Hamels	75.30%	81.90%	-6.6%
68	Drew Hutchison	64.50%	71.20%	-6.7%
69	Mark Buehrle	69.00%	75.90%	-6.9%
70	Jered Weaver	71.10%	78.30%	-7.2%
71	Corey Kluber	71.40%	78.60%	-7.2%
72	Alex Wood	72.90%	80.20%	-7.3%
73	Chris Sale	73.20%	81.50%	-8.3%
74	Chris Tillman	68.20%	76.70%	-8.5%
75	Johnny Cueto	73.70%	82.50%	-8.8%
76	Alfredo Simon	67.80%	77.50%	-9.7%
77	Miguel Gonzalez	73.10%	85.50%	-12.4%

The average LOB% in 2014 among qualified starters was 74.47%, and in 2015 it was 73.69%. The top 25 players all were more valuable than their original draft position. The bottom 25 lost a lot of value. The way I'm looking at this is that if a pitcher had an exceptional strand rate, but doesn't have a matching strikeout and walk rate, they are someone I'd avoid, as I think they'll be over priced, and I also believe in the inverse. For example a few arms that I can see being overpriced are:

John Lackey
Wei-Yin Chen
Hector Santiago
Marco Estrada
Phil Hughes

None of these guys have great strikeout stuff, and likely got lucky when it came to stranding runners, relying on a strong babip. The arms that I think will come at a nice discount in 2016 are:

Andrew Cashner
Jeff Samardzija
Taijuan Walker
Michael Pineda
Kyle Hendricks

All of these pitchers besides Samardzija had a strikeout rate over 8, but still had a bottom 25 strand rate. Samardzija is experiencing the ultimate move in going from an extreme hitters park with terrible defense behind him, to an extreme pitchers park with great defense behind him. As I mentioned in my previous article, I believe Samardzija's issues are more mechanical than him losing ability.

Below I'll post all of the pitchers who threw over 130 innings, along with their strand rates, ERA, FIP, and xFIP, tell me who you think will improve or regress negatively in 2016.

#	Name	Team	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
1	Zack Greinke	Dodgers	86.50%	1.66	2.76	3.22
2	John Lackey	Cardinals	82.60%	2.77	3.57	3.77
3	Wei-Yin Chen	Orioles	80.50%	3.34	4.16	4.01
4	Jake Arrieta	Cubs	80.00%	1.77	2.35	2.61
5	Hector Santiago	Angels	79.90%	3.59	4.77	5
6	James Shields	Padres	79.90%	3.91	4.45	3.7
7	Dan Haren	- - -	79.80%	3.6	4.61	4.69
8	Max Scherzer	Nationals	79.60%	2.79	2.77	2.88
9	Dallas Keuchel	Astros	79.40%	2.48	2.91	2.75
10	Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	79.20%	3.13	4.4	4.93
11	Lance Lynn	Cardinals	78.90%	3.03	3.44	3.9
12	Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	78.80%	3.01	3.21	3.28
13	Matt Harvey	Mets	78.70%	2.71	3.05	3.24
14	Nate Karns	Rays	78.70%	3.67	4.09	3.9
15	David Price	- - -	78.60%	2.45	2.78	3.24
16	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	78.30%	2.13	1.99	2.09
17	Phil Hughes	Twins	78.10%	4.4	4.7	4.31
18	Jacob deGrom	Mets	78.00%	2.54	2.7	2.92
19	Madison Bumgarner	Giants	77.90%	2.93	2.87	3.02
20	A.J. Burnett	Pirates	77.80%	3.18	3.36	3.55
21	Felix Hernandez	Mariners	77.80%	3.53	3.72	3.33
22	Yovani Gallardo	Rangers	77.20%	3.42	4	4.31
23	Jake Odorizzi	Rays	77.00%	3.35	3.61	3.96
24	Sonny Gray	Athletics	76.80%	2.73	3.45	3.69
25	Jose Quintana	White Sox	76.30%	3.36	3.18	3.51
26	Michael Wacha	Cardinals	76.20%	3.38	3.87	3.88
27	Danny Duffy	Royals	75.80%	4.08	4.43	4.64
28	Scott Kazmir	- - -	75.70%	3.1	3.98	4.14
29	J.A. Happ	- - -	75.40%	3.61	3.41	3.69
30	Carlos Rodon	White Sox	75.40%	3.75	3.87	4.03
31	Cole Hamels	- - -	75.30%	3.65	3.47	3.4
32	Mike Fiers	- - -	75.10%	3.69	4.03	4.04
33	Noah Syndergaard	Mets	75.00%	3.24	3.25	2.91
34	Gerrit Cole	Pirates	74.90%	2.6	2.66	3.16
35	Mike Leake	- - -	74.80%	3.7	4.2	3.93
36	Adam Warren	Yankees	74.70%	3.29	3.59	3.96
37	Danny Salazar	Indians	74.50%	3.45	3.62	3.48
38	Jordan Zimmermann	Nationals	74.50%	3.66	3.75	3.82
39	Collin McHugh	Astros	74.30%	3.89	3.58	3.91
40	Francisco Liriano	Pirates	74.20%	3.38	3.19	3.16
41	CC Sabathia	Yankees	74.20%	4.73	4.68	3.99
42	Matt Shoemaker	Angels	74.10%	4.46	4.59	4.16
43	Tyson Ross	Padres	74.00%	3.26	2.98	3.15
44	Masahiro Tanaka	Yankees	74.00%	3.51	3.98	3.29
45	Shelby Miller	Braves	73.80%	3.02	3.45	4.07
46	Brett Anderson	Dodgers	73.80%	3.69	3.94	3.51
47	C.J. Wilson	Angels	73.80%	3.89	4.02	4.24
48	Julio Teheran	Braves	73.80%	4.04	4.4	4.19
49	Ubaldo Jimenez	Orioles	73.80%	4.11	4.01	3.83
50	Johnny Cueto	- - -	73.70%	3.44	3.53	3.78
51	Chris Heston	Giants	73.40%	3.95	4.02	3.98
52	R.A. Dickey	Blue Jays	73.30%	3.91	4.48	4.72
53	Chris Sale	White Sox	73.20%	3.41	2.73	2.6
54	Chris Archer	Rays	73.10%	3.23	2.9	3.01
55	Edinson Volquez	Royals	73.10%	3.55	3.82	4.26
56	Miguel Gonzalez	Orioles	73.10%	4.91	5.01	4.48
57	Kyle Gibson	Twins	73.00%	3.84	3.96	3.95
58	Rubby de la Rosa	Diamondbacks	73.00%	4.67	4.81	4.1
59	Alex Wood	- - -	72.90%	3.84	3.69	3.9
60	Jorge de la Rosa	Rockies	72.90%	4.17	4.19	3.84
61	Jason Hammel	Cubs	72.80%	3.74	3.68	3.47
62	Nathan Eovaldi	Yankees	72.80%	4.2	3.42	3.81
63	Yordano Ventura	Royals	72.50%	4.08	3.57	3.6
64	Chase Anderson	Diamondbacks	72.30%	4.3	4.14	4.17
65	Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	72.10%	3.79	3.05	3.59
66	Jesse Chavez	Athletics	72.00%	4.18	3.85	3.89
67	Tom Koehler	Marlins	71.90%	4.08	4.53	4.58
68	Bartolo Colon	Mets	71.90%	4.16	3.84	3.94
69	Jon Lester	Cubs	71.80%	3.34	2.92	3.06
70	Carlos Carrasco	Indians	71.80%	3.63	2.84	2.66
71	Garrett Richards	Angels	71.80%	3.65	3.86	3.8
72	Ian Kennedy	Padres	71.60%	4.28	4.51	3.7
73	Trevor Bauer	Indians	71.60%	4.55	4.33	4.28
74	Jon Niese	Mets	71.50%	4.13	4.41	4.11
75	Jeremy Hellickson	Diamondbacks	71.50%	4.62	4.44	4.16
76	Corey Kluber	Indians	71.40%	3.49	2.97	3.05
77	Jered Weaver	Angels	71.10%	4.64	4.81	5.1
78	Justin Verlander	Tigers	70.90%	3.38	3.49	4.15
79	Erasmo Ramirez	Rays	70.50%	3.75	3.76	3.88
80	Mike Pelfrey	Twins	70.50%	4.26	4	4.45
81	Ryan Vogelsong	Giants	70.50%	4.67	4.53	4.55
82	Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	70.40%	4.11	4.1	4.06
83	Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	70.00%	4.99	4.73	4.03
84	Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	69.90%	3.95	3.36	3.25
85	Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	69.90%	4.05	3.67	3.97
86	Wade Miley	Red Sox	69.70%	4.46	3.81	4.08
87	Aaron Harang	Phillies	69.70%	4.86	4.83	4.99
88	Jeremy Guthrie	Royals	69.60%	5.95	5.62	5.11
89	Joe Kelly	Red Sox	69.30%	4.82	4.18	4.08
90	Mark Buehrle	Blue Jays	69.00%	3.81	4.26	4.46
91	Kyle Lohse	Brewers	68.70%	5.85	5.12	4.48
92	Michael Pineda	Yankees	68.60%	4.37	3.34	2.95
93	Kyle Kendrick	Rockies	68.60%	6.32	6.12	5.09
94	Chris Tillman	Orioles	68.20%	4.99	4.45	4.58
95	John Danks	White Sox	68.10%	4.71	4.49	4.65
96	Taijuan Walker	Mariners	67.80%	4.56	4.07	3.82
97	Alfredo Simon	Tigers	67.80%	5.05	4.77	4.78
98	Rick Porcello	Red Sox	67.50%	4.92	4.13	3.72
99	Jeff Samardzija	White Sox	67.20%	4.96	4.23	4.31
100	Chris Rusin	Rockies	67.20%	5.33	4.71	4.21
101	Jeff Locke	Pirates	67.10%	4.49	3.95	3.94
102	Colby Lewis	Rangers	65.90%	4.66	4.17	4.62
103	Andrew Cashner	Padres	65.60%	4.34	3.85	3.84
104	Matt Garza	Brewers	65.60%	5.63	4.94	4.5
105	Drew Hutchison	Blue Jays	64.50%	5.57	4.42	4.21

The Stranders

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