Mining for breakout power hitters

With the World Series underway and the offseason hot stove beginning to percolate, its a good time to begin looking forward to the 2016 fantasy baseball season. Today, I am going to take a look at the top home run hitters for the second half of the 2015 season to see if we can spot any breakout power hitters for the 2016 season.

Some in the list below are hitters we all expect to hit for power, such as Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, among many others. But some, like Mike Moustakas and Matt Carpenter showed off some unexpected power in the second half, and i want to take a closer look to see whether the power outburst was real or not.

Here are the top 30 home run hitters for the second half of the 2015 season:

Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	ISO	SLG	wRC+
Chris Davis	Orioles	74	318	28	56	65	2	0.376	0.669	187
Carlos Gonzalez	Rockies	71	285	27	49	62	0	0.354	0.638	142
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	69	306	23	52	54	4	0.322	0.585	159
Nelson Cruz	Mariners	65	293	23	46	40	1	0.298	0.592	163
Yoenis Cespedes	Mets	71	310	22	49	54	4	0.311	0.594	153
David Ortiz	Red Sox	66	274	22	41	65	0	0.376	0.701	185
Edwin Encarnacion	Blue Jays	61	268	21	48	57	2	0.363	0.700	201
Khris Davis	Brewers	71	259	21	36	48	6	0.296	0.545	128
Josh Donaldson	Blue Jays	69	317	20	57	63	3	0.313	0.615	171
Matt Carpenter	Cardinals	71	304	19	50	41	1	0.312	0.591	158
Nolan Arenado	Rockies	72	312	18	45	60	2	0.267	0.549	112
Bryce Harper	Nationals	72	311	16	59	38	2	0.266	0.586	182
Manny Machado	Orioles	74	334	16	46	38	7	0.204	0.476	127
Kole Calhoun	Angels	74	321	16	41	36	0	0.195	0.440	106
Jose Abreu	White Sox	73	324	16	38	55	0	0.229	0.514	131
Miguel Sano	Twins	69	290	16	42	44	1	0.260	0.512	141
Mike Trout	Angels	71	304	15	36	35	2	0.275	0.558	165
Robinson Cano	Mariners	70	305	15	44	49	0	0.209	0.540	157
Carlos Correa	Astros	67	291	15	34	49	9	0.233	0.514	137
Mike Moustakas	Royals	69	280	15	34	51	0	0.253	0.522	134
Anthony Rizzo	Cubs	74	321	15	46	53	5	0.223	0.478	126
Lucas Duda	Mets	49	195	15	25	35	0	0.341	0.591	160
Kyle Schwarber	Cubs	63	250	15	46	37	3	0.243	0.476	129
Matt Kemp	Padres	65	274	15	36	53	4	0.242	0.528	140
Pedro Alvarez	Pirates	68	204	15	26	36	1	0.274	0.525	137
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	69	272	15	35	35	3	0.233	0.448	108
Joey Votto	Reds	73	325	14	53	38	6	0.255	0.617	211
Kris Bryant	Cubs	73	310	14	40	48	5	0.223	0.505	138
Franklin Gutierrez	Mariners	47	156	14	24	33	0	0.364	0.657	181
Kyle Seager	Mariners	73	330	14	49	35	5	0.201	0.465	120

Mike Moustakas, Royals

Moustakas led the minor leagues in home runs back in 2010, so we know he can hit for power. He just hasn't hit for as much power as we thought he would when he was called up. He did hit 20 home runs in 2012, but had hit just 27 home runs from 2013-2014 coming into the 2015 season.

That changed this season, as he changed his approach at the plate, attempting to beat the shift, and his power also improved. This season, he hit .284-.348-.470 with 22 home runs, 73 runs scored and 82 RBI in 614 plate appearances...all career highs at the ripe ole age of 27. Add in 24 doubles and 57 extra base hits, and you begin to think that Moustakas' power is for real.

Let's take a look at his batted ball data, courtesy of FanGraphs:

Season	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	Pull%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
2011	20.40%	38.40%	41.20%	4.20%	40.20%	32.00%	46.00%	22.00%
2012	16.40%	33.80%	49.80%	9.00%	43.50%	19.10%	55.20%	25.70%
2013	18.80%	36.60%	44.50%	6.90%	49.70%	20.80%	54.10%	25.10%
2014	20.20%	38.60%	41.20%	9.40%	50.50%	21.60%	46.60%	31.70%
2015	18.80%	39.90%	41.40%	11.20%	39.20%	19.50%	49.20%	31.30%
Total	18.80%	37.40%	43.80%	8.50%	44.60%	21.90%	50.50%	27.60%

Looking at his batted data above, his percentage of hard hit balls stayed relatively the same this season, while his medium hit balls increased slightly. He hit the same amount of balls in the air this season as last, but he did pull the ball more this season than last, so that could help explain the increase in power.

Here is a look at where his home runs landed in 2015, courtesy of Hit Tracker Online:

Scatter Plot of Home Runs for Moustakas, Mike

Overlay Ballpark:  No Overlay Angel Stadium AT&T Park Busch Stadium Chase Field Citi Field Citizens Bank Park Comerica Park Coors Field Dodger Stadium Fenway Park Globe Life Park in Arlington Great American Ball Park Kauffman Stadium Marlins+Park">Marlins Park Miller Park Minute Maid Park Nationals Park O.co Coliseum Oriole Park at Camden Yards PETCO Park PNC Park Progressive Field Rogers Centre Safeco Field Target Field Tokyo Dome Tropicana Field Turner Field U.S. Cellular Field Wrigley Field Yankee Stadium

As you can see, pulling the ball more turned into more balls landing in the seats for Moustakas this season. He will have to maintain the fly ball rate, and maybe increase his percentage of hard hit balls, but I can see him hitting 20-25 home runs once again in 2016, with a chance for more.

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals

Wow!! That's all I can say about Carpenter's power breakout in 2015. After hitting just 25 home runs in over 1,700 plate appearances from 2012-2014, Carpenter hit 28 home runs in 2015. His season stats: .272-.365-.505 with 28 home runs, 101 runs scored and 84 RBI in over 700 plate appearances. He appeared to focus on hitting for more power this season, as his strikeout rate jumped from 15.7% to 22.7%, so I wonder if he was asked to swing for the fences more this season. If so, he was very successful.

Now, how do we value him for 2016? Let's take a look at his batted ball data courtesy of FanGraphs:

Season	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	Pull%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
2011	0.00%	45.50%	54.50%	0.00%	18.20%	36.40%	63.60%	0.00%
2012	23.80%	40.20%	36.00%	7.00%	32.50%	7.90%	57.90%	34.20%
2013	27.30%	38.70%	34.00%	6.10%	36.60%	9.70%	56.90%	33.50%
2014	23.80%	41.00%	35.20%	4.70%	31.90%	14.90%	51.70%	33.30%
2015	28.50%	29.70%	41.70%	15.80%	39.30%	11.20%	52.00%	36.80%
Total	25.90%	37.40%	36.70%	8.50%	35.20%	11.50%	54.40%	34.10%

We see that Carpenter did, in fact, focus on hitting for more power, as his fly ball rate increased from 35% in 2014 to 42% this season, and he pulled more balls as well. Add in the fact that he squared the ball up more than ever, he has a chance to repeat this power output in 2016.

Below you will see where his home runs landed in 2015,  courtesy of Hit Tracker Online:

Scatter Plot of Home Runs for Carpenter, Matt

Overlay Ballpark:  No Overlay Angel Stadium AT&T Park Busch Stadium Chase Field Citi Field Citizens Bank Park Comerica Park Coors Field Dodger Stadium Fenway Park Globe Life Park in Arlington Great American Ball Park Kauffman Stadium Marlins Park Miller Park Minute Maid Park Nationals Park O.co Coliseum Oriole Park at Camden Yards PETCO Park PNC Park Progressive Field Rogers Centre Safeco Field Target Field Tokyo Dome Tropicana Field Turner Field U.S. Cellular Field Wrigley Field Yankee Stadium

As you can see from his scatter plot, 10 of his 28 home runs were pulled last season, yet 11 of them were hit to left center, which is usually a good sign for power hitters. The data tells me that he can repeat the home run production in 2016, but part of me is skeptical.

Khris Davis, Brewers

Like Moustakas, Davis' calling card is his power, so the fact that he is included in this analysis shouldn't be a big surprise. What is a surprise is the fact that he hit 21 of his 27 home runs in the second half, despite hitting more ground balls and his hard hit percentage drop from 40% in 2014 to 34% this season.

Season	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	Pull%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
2013	20.40%	42.70%	36.90%	28.90%	41.70%	11.70%	40.80%	47.60%
2014	21.40%	38.90%	39.70%	14.50%	43.60%	10.90%	48.80%	40.30%
2015	17.20%	42.50%	40.30%	24.50%	41.40%	17.90%	47.60%	34.40%
Total	19.80%	40.70%	39.50%	20.00%	42.60%	13.50%	47.30%	39.20%

Davis hit just .247-.323-.505 with 27 home runs, 54 runs scored, 66 RBI and 6 stolen bases in just over 400 plate appearances. While he strikes out a lot, he also walks more than 10% of his plate appearances, and his isolated power and slugging percentage both improved this season.

Below is Davis' home run scatter plot courtesy of Hit Tracker Online:

Scatter Plot of Home Runs for Davis, Khris

Overlay Ballpark:  No Overlay Angel Stadium AT&T Park Busch Stadium Chase Field Citi Field Citizens Bank Park Comerica Park Coors Field Dodger Stadium Fenway Park Globe Life Park in Arlington Great American Ball Park Kauffman Stadium Marlins Park Miller Park Minute Maid Park Nationals Park O.co Coliseum Oriole Park at Camden Yards PETCO Park PNC Park Progressive Field Rogers Centre Safeco Field Target Field Tokyo Dome Tropicana Field Turner Field U.S. Cellular Field Wrigley Field Yankee Stadium

Davis' batted ball data also shows that he pulls the ball quite a bit, and that didn't change in 2015. As you can see from his scatter plot below, most of his home runs were not pulled, but were hit to left center and center field. Actually, he hit more home runs to right field than he did to left field this season, so there is more power to come from Davis in 2016, and he should come cheap in most leagues, as he isn't the first name, or the first 30 names one would think of when looking for a power hitter on draft day. Invest with confidence.