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With the World Series underway and the offseason hot stove beginning to percolate, its a good time to begin looking forward to the 2016 fantasy baseball season. Today, I am going to take a look at the top home run hitters for the second half of the 2015 season to see if we can spot any breakout power hitters for the 2016 season.
Some in the list below are hitters we all expect to hit for power, such as Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, among many others. But some, like Mike Moustakas and Matt Carpenter showed off some unexpected power in the second half, and i want to take a closer look to see whether the power outburst was real or not.
Here are the top 30 home run hitters for the second half of the 2015 season:
Name |
Team |
G |
PA |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
ISO |
SLG |
wRC+ |
Chris Davis |
74 |
318 |
28 |
56 |
65 |
2 |
0.376 |
0.669 |
187 |
|
Carlos Gonzalez |
71 |
285 |
27 |
49 |
62 |
0 |
0.354 |
0.638 |
142 |
|
Jose Bautista |
69 |
306 |
23 |
52 |
54 |
4 |
0.322 |
0.585 |
159 |
|
Nelson Cruz |
65 |
293 |
23 |
46 |
40 |
1 |
0.298 |
0.592 |
163 |
|
Yoenis Cespedes |
71 |
310 |
22 |
49 |
54 |
4 |
0.311 |
0.594 |
153 |
|
David Ortiz |
66 |
274 |
22 |
41 |
65 |
0 |
0.376 |
0.701 |
185 |
|
Edwin Encarnacion |
Blue Jays |
61 |
268 |
21 |
48 |
57 |
2 |
0.363 |
0.700 |
201 |
Khris Davis |
71 |
259 |
21 |
36 |
48 |
6 |
0.296 |
0.545 |
128 |
|
Josh Donaldson |
Blue Jays |
69 |
317 |
20 |
57 |
63 |
3 |
0.313 |
0.615 |
171 |
Matt Carpenter |
71 |
304 |
19 |
50 |
41 |
1 |
0.312 |
0.591 |
158 |
|
Nolan Arenado |
Rockies |
72 |
312 |
18 |
45 |
60 |
2 |
0.267 |
0.549 |
112 |
Bryce Harper |
72 |
311 |
16 |
59 |
38 |
2 |
0.266 |
0.586 |
182 |
|
Manny Machado |
Orioles |
74 |
334 |
16 |
46 |
38 |
7 |
0.204 |
0.476 |
127 |
Kole Calhoun |
74 |
321 |
16 |
41 |
36 |
0 |
0.195 |
0.440 |
106 |
|
Jose Abreu |
73 |
324 |
16 |
38 |
55 |
0 |
0.229 |
0.514 |
131 |
|
Miguel Sano |
69 |
290 |
16 |
42 |
44 |
1 |
0.260 |
0.512 |
141 |
|
Mike Trout |
Angels |
71 |
304 |
15 |
36 |
35 |
2 |
0.275 |
0.558 |
165 |
Robinson Cano |
Mariners |
70 |
305 |
15 |
44 |
49 |
0 |
0.209 |
0.540 |
157 |
Carlos Correa |
67 |
291 |
15 |
34 |
49 |
9 |
0.233 |
0.514 |
137 |
|
Mike Moustakas |
69 |
280 |
15 |
34 |
51 |
0 |
0.253 |
0.522 |
134 |
|
Anthony Rizzo |
74 |
321 |
15 |
46 |
53 |
5 |
0.223 |
0.478 |
126 |
|
Lucas Duda |
Mets |
49 |
195 |
15 |
25 |
35 |
0 |
0.341 |
0.591 |
160 |
Kyle Schwarber |
Cubs |
63 |
250 |
15 |
46 |
37 |
3 |
0.243 |
0.476 |
129 |
Matt Kemp |
65 |
274 |
15 |
36 |
53 |
4 |
0.242 |
0.528 |
140 |
|
Pedro Alvarez |
68 |
204 |
15 |
26 |
36 |
1 |
0.274 |
0.525 |
137 |
|
Alex Rodriguez |
69 |
272 |
15 |
35 |
35 |
3 |
0.233 |
0.448 |
108 |
|
Joey Votto |
73 |
325 |
14 |
53 |
38 |
6 |
0.255 |
0.617 |
211 |
|
Kris Bryant |
Cubs |
73 |
310 |
14 |
40 |
48 |
5 |
0.223 |
0.505 |
138 |
Franklin Gutierrez |
Mariners |
47 |
156 |
14 |
24 |
33 |
0 |
0.364 |
0.657 |
181 |
Kyle Seager |
Mariners |
73 |
330 |
14 |
49 |
35 |
5 |
0.201 |
0.465 |
120 |
Mike Moustakas, Royals
Moustakas led the minor leagues in home runs back in 2010, so we know he can hit for power. He just hasn't hit for as much power as we thought he would when he was called up. He did hit 20 home runs in 2012, but had hit just 27 home runs from 2013-2014 coming into the 2015 season.
That changed this season, as he changed his approach at the plate, attempting to beat the shift, and his power also improved. This season, he hit .284-.348-.470 with 22 home runs, 73 runs scored and 82 RBI in 614 plate appearances...all career highs at the ripe ole age of 27. Add in 24 doubles and 57 extra base hits, and you begin to think that Moustakas' power is for real.
Let's take a look at his batted ball data, courtesy of FanGraphs:
Season |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
HR/FB |
Pull% |
Soft% |
Med% |
Hard% |
2011 |
20.40% |
38.40% |
41.20% |
4.20% |
40.20% |
32.00% |
46.00% |
22.00% |
2012 |
16.40% |
33.80% |
49.80% |
9.00% |
43.50% |
19.10% |
55.20% |
25.70% |
2013 |
18.80% |
36.60% |
44.50% |
6.90% |
49.70% |
20.80% |
54.10% |
25.10% |
2014 |
20.20% |
38.60% |
41.20% |
9.40% |
50.50% |
21.60% |
46.60% |
31.70% |
2015 |
18.80% |
39.90% |
41.40% |
11.20% |
39.20% |
19.50% |
49.20% |
31.30% |
Total |
18.80% |
37.40% |
43.80% |
8.50% |
44.60% |
21.90% |
50.50% |
27.60% |
Looking at his batted data above, his percentage of hard hit balls stayed relatively the same this season, while his medium hit balls increased slightly. He hit the same amount of balls in the air this season as last, but he did pull the ball more this season than last, so that could help explain the increase in power.
Here is a look at where his home runs landed in 2015, courtesy of Hit Tracker Online:
As you can see, pulling the ball more turned into more balls landing in the seats for Moustakas this season. He will have to maintain the fly ball rate, and maybe increase his percentage of hard hit balls, but I can see him hitting 20-25 home runs once again in 2016, with a chance for more.
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
Wow!! That's all I can say about Carpenter's power breakout in 2015. After hitting just 25 home runs in over 1,700 plate appearances from 2012-2014, Carpenter hit 28 home runs in 2015. His season stats: .272-.365-.505 with 28 home runs, 101 runs scored and 84 RBI in over 700 plate appearances. He appeared to focus on hitting for more power this season, as his strikeout rate jumped from 15.7% to 22.7%, so I wonder if he was asked to swing for the fences more this season. If so, he was very successful.
Now, how do we value him for 2016? Let's take a look at his batted ball data courtesy of FanGraphs:
Season |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
HR/FB |
Pull% |
Soft% |
Med% |
Hard% |
2011 |
0.00% |
45.50% |
54.50% |
0.00% |
18.20% |
36.40% |
63.60% |
0.00% |
2012 |
23.80% |
40.20% |
36.00% |
7.00% |
32.50% |
7.90% |
57.90% |
34.20% |
2013 |
27.30% |
38.70% |
34.00% |
6.10% |
36.60% |
9.70% |
56.90% |
33.50% |
2014 |
23.80% |
41.00% |
35.20% |
4.70% |
31.90% |
14.90% |
51.70% |
33.30% |
2015 |
28.50% |
29.70% |
41.70% |
15.80% |
39.30% |
11.20% |
52.00% |
36.80% |
Total |
25.90% |
37.40% |
36.70% |
8.50% |
35.20% |
11.50% |
54.40% |
34.10% |
We see that Carpenter did, in fact, focus on hitting for more power, as his fly ball rate increased from 35% in 2014 to 42% this season, and he pulled more balls as well. Add in the fact that he squared the ball up more than ever, he has a chance to repeat this power output in 2016.
Below you will see where his home runs landed in 2015, courtesy of Hit Tracker Online:
As you can see from his scatter plot, 10 of his 28 home runs were pulled last season, yet 11 of them were hit to left center, which is usually a good sign for power hitters. The data tells me that he can repeat the home run production in 2016, but part of me is skeptical.
Khris Davis, Brewers
Like Moustakas, Davis' calling card is his power, so the fact that he is included in this analysis shouldn't be a big surprise. What is a surprise is the fact that he hit 21 of his 27 home runs in the second half, despite hitting more ground balls and his hard hit percentage drop from 40% in 2014 to 34% this season.
Season |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
HR/FB |
Pull% |
Soft% |
Med% |
Hard% |
2013 |
20.40% |
42.70% |
36.90% |
28.90% |
41.70% |
11.70% |
40.80% |
47.60% |
2014 |
21.40% |
38.90% |
39.70% |
14.50% |
43.60% |
10.90% |
48.80% |
40.30% |
2015 |
17.20% |
42.50% |
40.30% |
24.50% |
41.40% |
17.90% |
47.60% |
34.40% |
Total |
19.80% |
40.70% |
39.50% |
20.00% |
42.60% |
13.50% |
47.30% |
39.20% |
Davis hit just .247-.323-.505 with 27 home runs, 54 runs scored, 66 RBI and 6 stolen bases in just over 400 plate appearances. While he strikes out a lot, he also walks more than 10% of his plate appearances, and his isolated power and slugging percentage both improved this season.
Below is Davis' home run scatter plot courtesy of Hit Tracker Online:
Davis' batted ball data also shows that he pulls the ball quite a bit, and that didn't change in 2015. As you can see from his scatter plot below, most of his home runs were not pulled, but were hit to left center and center field. Actually, he hit more home runs to right field than he did to left field this season, so there is more power to come from Davis in 2016, and he should come cheap in most leagues, as he isn't the first name, or the first 30 names one would think of when looking for a power hitter on draft day. Invest with confidence.