Value Picks at Second Base: Kelly Johnson

Call me crazy for branding Kelly Johnson a value pick after his "awful" season last year, but his current ADP (235.9, up slightly from a few weeks ago) suggests he has become an afterthought with the folks participating in drafts at MockDraftCentral.com. If you can look past the average, Johnson had nice counting stats (75/21/58/16) to offer his owners. The problem was that his average, and the price tag, was tough to stomach last season. It's hard to go back to guys who under-perform so mightily, but when players slip as far as Johnson is in early drafts --- they slide into a no risk-high reward zone.

The culprit of his .224 batting average can be found rather easily with a quick trip to FanGraphs. His .277 BABIP was well south of a career .311 mark, and the second lowest of his career. Once he got to Toronto his BABIP was a bit more normal (for him) at .346. Aside from two seasons where he posted sub-.300 BABIPs, he's sustained a BABIP north of .328 on three occasions. Furthermore, once Johnson arrived in Toronto, he posted a .270 batting average over 132 at bats --- thanks to an improvement in plate discipline and batting average on balls in play.

I expect that his BABIP will correct itself next season, as these things normally do, and Johnson will find his average above .250. I don't think we'll be seeing a repeat Let's look at a few projections by Bill James for second basemen next season. I'll hide their identities for the time being.

Player A: .271 / 108 R / 25 / 78 / 25
Player B: .251 / 78 R / 19 / 62 / 13
Player C: .272 / 88 R / 18 / 69 / 18
Player D: .280 / 85 R / 21 / 79 / 14

Player B is Kelly Johnson. The others are (in order): Ian Kinsler, Jason Kipnis, and Chase Utley. The value comes from their draft slot. Johnson can be had for nothing, and Kipnis has an ADP of 164 (approximately the 14th round in a 12-team league). Utley carries too much risk for my taste. Given his knee issues, age, and a pricey ADP of 77 (6th round), I'll avoid paying for production that I can get a few rounds later. Obviously, in order to get Kinsler, you're going to have to spend your second round pick on him --- and that's not exactly a bad thing. Kinsler is a legit 30-30 candidate, and I'm not sure I can say I wouldn't pick him if I had the opportunity. If I miss Kinsler, though, I'll be waiting a very long time to pick a second baseman.

Johnson's batting average looks ugly compared to the others, but we see a minimal difference in Kipnis and Kinsler's average. Still, the batting average is acceptable, even at .251. Look at the counting stats instead:

Kinsler: 108 R / 25 / 78 / 25 (2nd Round)
Johnson: 78 R / 19 / 62 / 13 (20th Round)
Kipnis: 88 R / 18 / 69 / 18 (14th Round)
Utley: 85 R / 21 / 79 / 14 (7th Round)

If I'm picking between Kipnis, Utley, and Johnson --- I'll take Johnson every time. While I think that Utley can return a profit from his draft slot, the danger outweighs the reward in my opinion. I'll grab Johnson later with almost no risk attached, and take a flier on a pitcher with upside instead.

2012 Prediction: .260 / 77 R / 22 / 65 / 16