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Oddsmakers Signals


At first glance, the lines that stand out are the Colts -9 versus the Redskins and the Dolphins -4.5 against the Packers.

The Colts haven't been able to stop the run.  Redskins RB Clinton Portis is very good.  I interpret this line to mean the Redskins will not be able to score enough points to match the Colts.  An over/under of 49 also leads to this conclusion.

The line is a bet against QB Mark Brunell and not Portis' likely 125 yards.

The Dolphins do not appear to be better than any team.  As such, they should be three-point favorites at home against teams they are on par with.  A Favre-led Packers would seem to match-up well.  Their passing game is better than the Jets and their running game is no worse.

Plus, the Pack has seen Dolphins QB Joey Harrington twice a year for four years now.

The line is reflective of RB Ronnie Brown being able to successfully rush the ball and, by extension, control the clock.  An over-under of 41 is not indicative of a high-scoring game.  Can the Dolphins really keep Brett Favre to two or fewer TD drives?

How about an over-under of 31 for the Broncos/Browns along with a 4.5 road favorite Broncos team?  That screams that no player outside of Broncos RB Tatum Bell is a safe fantasy play.

The Browns coming off a bye week means nothing.  Braylon Edwards big-play ability means nothing.  The line and over-under scream, "Start the Broncos Defense!!!"

The Jets -3.5 against the Lions is somewhat curious given Jon Kitna's passing success and the Jets' inability to rush the passer.  The Jets are also unable to stop the run.  Lions RB Kevin Jones is good.

I know the Lions are 1-5, and the Jets are 3-3.  Based on the teams' records, one would expect a higher line.  Fantasy teams are being told to expect the Lions to do well on the road, and,if they do well, then their skils players can be reasonably expected to produce.

And for those who worry whether or not QB Ben Roethlisberger is back to his pre-2006 form, then look no further than the linesmakers' installation of the Steelers as 1.5 point favorites on the road in Atlanta.

This also indicates the Falcons are unlikely to adjust their defensive game plan to stop the run.  A curious line given the two team's record.  The Steelers are 2-3 and the Falcons are 3-2 with just 69 points allowed.