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The Beast of the Big East!

They are ranked according to NBA.com's Fantasy Sports Performance Index (FSPI). To delve more into more detail, click through, but, to sum-up, FSPI is:

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Tom Brady is throwing 6 TDs in a game and Jon Kitna is going three games without a TD. NFL teams are starting guys named Quinn Gray, Derek Anderson and Sage Rosenfels at quarterback. In a fantasy football world gone mad, where can you turn for a solid, dependable QB?

How about good old Ben Roethlisberger? Remember him? He's healthy, confident and while you weren't looking became a very nice fantasy quarterback.

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On Friday afternoon, ESPN.com's Buster Olney broke the news that Alex Rodriguez's position was either the Yankees offer a $350MM contract or he won't speak with them.  Saturday's New York Post confirmed it through "industry sources."  While seemingly outrageous on its face, Jeffrey N. Gordon, the Alfred W. Bressler Professor of Law at Columbia University Law School, offers a more benign explanation for all of ARod's actions since Game Four of the World Series.

In Sunday's New York Times, Professor Gordon explains that ARod did the only thing he could do in order to give the Yankees a way to back out of its stand of not negotiating a contract with him if he opted out.  ARod will prove his market value and insist that is he just as valuable at that price to the Yankees as he is to the other team setting the price.

The good professor also shows that ARod had no choice but to look like a cad by opting out on Sunday rather than doing so after the Yankees announce their new manager, Joe Girardi, which is assumed ARod knew was going to happen.  If ARod had waited, then he would have cast a pall over the relationship between himself and his new manager by giving the appearance that he disagreed with the hiring after publicly stating he would wait until after the situation was settled.

Even allowing the public is not privy to everything that each side of the negotiations say and do, this still seems like a planted story from a sympathetic Scott Boras colleague rather than the slam dunk explanation that brings crystal clarity to ARod's willingness to disrespect the World Series and its particpants.   Nor does it address the leak last Sunday morning's headlines, prior to Game Four, that the Yankees offered a 5 year/$150MM extension.

Further, from Sunday's New York Times, Murray Chass provides a time line from Yankees' GM Brian Cashman that includes time-stamped voice mail and e-mail from Scott Boras to Cashman at 9:32PM and 9:42 PM Sunday evening respectively.  The email contain's no cc's, and no one else has reported receiving a voice mail message.  According to Cashman, he found out at 10:30PM after the story was posted on SI.com.  Why not earlier?  He had fallen asleep reading bedtime stories to his son and was awakend by his wife when his cellphone began ringing off the hook for follow-up on the SI piece.

How do these factor into the Professor's narrative?

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The GM Meetings kick-off today.  While most of the baseball world focuses on Alex Rodriguez, there exists the possibility of some under-the-radar deals getting done or having their groundwork laid for later in the winter.  Here are a few trade rumors from this past weekend.

• NY Daily News:Will the Yankees deal Damon?    GM Brian Cashman said Melky Cabrera is the starting CF. This leaves the $13MM Damon in a LF/DH role.  With 3B freed-up, could Damon end-up in the Texas OF for Hank Blalock?

• SD Union Tribune reported the Padres will look to fill their CF hole following the free agent departure of Mike Cameron via trade.  The most obvious candidate would be Boston's Coco Crisp.

• Chicago Tribune White Sox GM says Josh Fields' 2008 position soon to be settled.  This leads one to guess that it will be 3B if the Chisox can deal 3B Joe Crede.  A Johnny-Damon-for-Joe-Crede seems very reasonable.  The Yankees need a 3B and the White Sox can put Damon in LF and put Fields at 3B.

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Minnesota Vikings' rookie RB Adrian Peterson ripped the San Diego Charger defense for 296 yards and three TDs. The was the single-game rushing record! His totals through eight games are 1,036 yards with 8 rushing TDs and one receiving.

What makes him so good? Here is ESPN's take.

From my perspective, is he the top pick in the 2008 fantasy football drafts or has he only ascended to the #2 spot?

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Speaking of next season's top picks, Patriots' QB Tom Brady has done nothing to weaken the argument that he should be a Top 5 selection. Maybe even Top 3. But I admit to feeling the same disdain I feel for the New England Patriots as I do for Duke University basketball. And as a University of Connecticut basketball fan since 1988, that is quite a bit of nasty emotion.

When Robert Mathis sacked Brady on the Patriots' first possession of today's game against Indianapolis, I felt, "Yeah! Kill him!" When the Colts drove the ball, I felt the same. When Asante Samuel committed a 37-yard pass interference penalty against Anthony Gonzalez, I reacted with the same emotion.

This certainly arises from my belief that the Patriots are running-up the score against every team, and my sense of honor finds that repulsive. Am I the only one whose emtions make me beleive everyone is a Colts fan today who isn't one of the Pats?

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With CBSportsline running a countdown to the kick-off of the Patriots/Colts game, I was reminded to switch out either team's Defense.  I decided, as so many fantasy players did, to sit the Colts' Defense.  In its place is the pre-season sleeper Defense of the Oakland Raiders.  Here's to hoping a Ron Dayne-led offense cannot score enough to make the Raiders' Defense a bad match-up play - and even if Adimchinobe Echemandu can work through a deep hamstring bruise and play.

LenDale White/Chris Henry:  White has been great this season but showed-up on the injury report with a toe issue.  Rookie RB Chris Henry has been a pleasant surprise since being actived for the first time two weeks ago 911/57/1 and 4/48/1 respectively.)  Unfortunately, he is facing a four-game suspension for violating the league's steroid policy and could be lost just as White begins to breakdown.  Chris Brown looks like he is back in the mix unless Henry (Chris) hires Henry's ( Travis) lawyer.

Warrick Dunn/Jerious Norwood:  Reports have the Falcons adding more plays for Norwood.  If given the choice between Dunn and Norwood, I'd choose Norwood.  Possibly even without the latest news.

Frank Gore/Mo Hicks/Michael Robinson:  Gore is out, but neither options seems likely to provide a sure-fire good effort.  If I had to, I gamble on Robinson breaking a big run, but I'd really prefer other options if available.  I suspect Gore is going to remain dinged for the rest of the season as the 49ers passing game barely merits single coverage on its receivers.  Eight and nine men in the box is going to be the norm.

Travis Henry/Selvin Young:  Given Travis Henry's success in the courtroom, he is likely going to continue to start as long as he is active.  

Rudi Johnson/Kenny Watson:  Rudi practiced all week and should be expected to start.  Given the team played Johnson a couple weeks ago only to see him reinjure the hamstring, I would be surrpised to see the same mistake made twice.  I don't see Watson getting much more than a handful or so of carries.

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This week finds parity alive and well.  There isn't a single double-digit favorite and most lines are under 4 points.  There is no way there won't be double-digit victories.  It's just the lines don't offer clues as to which teams will have those victories.

Byes:  New York Giants, St Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears

Washington Redskins at New York Jets (+3.5):

• Apparently, no one is holding last week's 52-7 shellacking at the hands of the Patriots against the Redskins.  Even so, laying 3.5 points on the road seems beyond this team's capabilities.
  
• Without #1 WR Laverneus Coles, can QB Kellen Clemens quickly put to rest the Chad Pennington Era?

• Can RB Ryan Grant have a good enough repeat performance to solidfy the #1 RB postion for the Packers?
  
• Anyone remember Priest Holmes?  Following the team's bye, how much use will he get?

• Is Kurt Warner healthy?  He must be because there is little reason to believe Tim Rattay will solve the TB defense.
  
• Is the Cardinals' defense so good that the Bucs can't be favored by more at home?

• Raise your hand if you think Carolina is in first place?
  
• After seven games, will the real fantasy Vince Young stand-up or is he what he has been so far - worthless?

• With Frank Gore hobbled and the passing game in shambles, is the line too low?
  
• Will head coach Bobby Petrino finally increase RB Jerious Norwood's opportunities for production?

• If QB Quinn Gray weren't so bad, I'd wonder about being such big road dogs.
  
• Who'd a thunk the Saints would be favored in this game following the teams first three games?  Will Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Reggie Bush continue to justify their owner's patience?

• What happens next in the soap opera at RB?  Will the soon-to-be suspended Travis Henry produce or will it be Selvin Young?  This is Mike Shannahan's team so maybe Mike Bell gets a shot.
  
• Will Kevin Jones prove his Top 10 RB status against the creamy rush defense of the Broncos?

• Oddly, this line opened with the Bengals as three-point dogs.  A four-point swing means something.  It couldn't be the return of non-pass-catching RB Rudi Johnson, could it?
  
• Vegas was not impressed by the Losman/Evans bomb last week.  The Bengals have not allowed fewer than 20 points in any game so far and those included the Jets and Ravens.  The Bills offense is at least as good as those two teams.

• The Vikings can stop the run.  To be seven-point home 'dogs, expect a good passing game from QB Phillip Rivers.
  
• The team is all about how well RB Adrian Peterson does.  There is nothing else on offense to worry about.

• Will the Seahawks' offense produce and make WR DJ Hackett into the sleeper he was expected to be?
  
• After converting all of the fantasy punditry into believers, will QB Derek Anderson go Brian Griese on them?

• Who'd have thought the defending Super Bowl Champions would average 32 points per game and allow jst 15 and still be five-point underdogs at home?
  
• I subscribe to Chris Liss of Rotowire's explanation for this line.  The books are getting killed by everyone taking the Patriots and just threw out an outrageous line to see if the betting is tied in any rational way to the line.  NOTE:  The line opened at Pats -3 and moved to -5.

• Is the Oakland rush defense so bad that Ron Dayne could have an eighty-yard game?
  
• How bad has the Raiders' offense been that is lays just three points to a team that has allowed 35, 38, and 37 points in its last three games?  This looks to be setting-up nicely for the return of QB Josh McCown.

• Will Tony Romo reward his employer's $70MM worth of faith?
  
• The Eagles give the appearance of disappointment, but can they really be three-point home underdogs in a fierce divsion rivalry?

• How will QB Steve McNair's return effect the offense?  In his last two starts, he couldn't move the team against the Browns or 49ers, scoring 13 and 9 points respectively.  Those nine points don't seem that much anymore, do they?
  
• Can QB Ben Roethlisberger continue to buttress the Air AFC North reputation (Big Ben 15 TDs, Derek Anderson 17 and Carson Palmer 14)?  How will the TDs be spread out between Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Heath Miller?

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The big game is this week and I can't wait!  Peyton who?  Tom who?  No, I mean Dallas visiting Philadelphia!  You really need to have surround sound and HD to truly experience the Philadelphia fans cursing, spitting, fighting in the stands and throwing debris on the field.  And at other fans.  And at the security guards. What do you mean they've closed the beer windows?!

Colts (+5.5) vs Patriots - Considering the Patriots have won their eight games by an average of 25.5 pts, this line seems low.  But this is factoring the chance that the Colts will actually, you know, win the game.  It is possible.  The over/under of 56.5 says shootout, but you already knew that.  Start everybody except the team defenses.

Titans (-4) vs Panthers - The Titans are not a good offensive team, which makes you wonder just  how bad Vegas thinks the Panthers are.  Wait, you mean David Carr is Carolina's starter?  OK, well there you go.  If you have any Panthers on your fantasy team you should be very nervous.

Lions (-3) vs Broncos - Jon Kitna hasn't thrown a TD pass in the past three games and they're still expected to beat Jay Cutler and (likely) Travis Henry?  What's that all about?   If you're celebrating the return of Henry, or counting on one of the Brandons, this is bad news.

Falcons (-3.5) vs Forty Niners - That's not a typo, the Falcons are actually favored.  This must be factoring in that Frank Gore isn't going to play, which hasn't been announced but wouldn't surprise anybody.  With an over/under of only 37 points, this should be a ugly, mistake-filled game that won't benefit anybody on your fantasy team except possibly the kickers.

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My WR options are more limited than the ones I had last week thanks to byes for Torry Holt and Muhsin Muhammad. I am considering Texans' WR Andre Johnson as out for this week because reports have his coach saying he's ready to go, but Johnson's "people" say he shouldn't play. Who does Johnson listen to? I'm not gambling that he will not have "his people" at the back of his mind even if he suits-up. Throw-in a tough Raiders' secondary, and I do not see Johnson as a part of my start/sit decisions.

From ESPN's Len Pasquarelli:

This Week

Last Week's Results

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by Dave Fuller from Third League

Sorry to kill your nostalgia, but Johnny Carson never played fantasy basketball. He might have been good at it, though. As luck and the human condition would have it, Carson got screwed by three different wives before marrying a fourth. Man, they knocked his financial assets down a few pegs by doing so. I won't even delve into his intimate life.

But let's talk seriously. Carson invested in at least three separate entities unrelated to The Tonight Show in his lifetime; of those three, two failed. First was the De Lorean Motor Company, but he sort of closed his own book on that chapter after a DWI car accident where he was the driver. His car of choice? A De Lorean DMC-12. See, I'm going somewhere with this. DMC? Reminds you of Run-TMC, doesn't it? Talk about nostalgia. Wait, I'm not even old enough to be nostalgic about Run-TMC. Alright whatever. I'll continue on.

The other failed investment was in a restaurant franchise. I could only imagine why that crashed and burned, but I should really stop making puns and references. I will in a little while. Last, Just let me make mention of his successful clothing line business venture. His turtlenecks were all the rage, you know. But that's essentially irrelevant, so OK, here's the point.

What caused John William "Johnny" Carson's ultimate success? Well, really, it was a multitude of things. Specifically, though, Carson had patience. He made multiple investments, a majority of which failed. He braved that which a lot of grown men are afraid of (marriage, of course) four times and was taken for quite a bit of what he was worth in three of those. Hmm, successful definitely sounds like the right word. But why did he persevere when the odds were stacked against him? How did he ultimately become successful while failing so often? Patience.

Admittedly, that was either the worst metaphor I've ever come up with or one of the most brilliant. I'm leaning toward the former, but hey, to directly bring Johnny Carson into this article wasn't even my original focus. Aw man I'm becoming Chris Kaman. Well, just look at what he's doing. ADD doesn't stop him from putting up double-doubles. Maybe it'll suit me well.

The real point is patience is one of the most rudimentary qualities a potential fantasy champion will possess. With patience comes informed decision making. With it also comes perseverance. Not the kind where you're streaming in the playoffs just to win minutes, when all you're really doing is killing our percentages and turnover counts. No, I mean the kind where you have the time to think your moves through and make the correct choice. "Do I add Kelenna Azubuike after his dominant performance late Friday night?" Perhaps, but only if adding 3's and steals to your team is necessary. It wouldn't be the best move to drop Tyrus Thomas for Azubuike when you're in desperate need of rebounds and blocks, now would it?

The most important thing to consider is that playing the game at a quick pace will only increase the potential for mistakes. Ask the Phoenix Suns about that. They'll tell you better than anyone that a quick pace is ultimately defeated by calm, cool, patient basketball. The San Antonio Spurs are the epitome of patience, and it's hard to argue with 4 NBA championships in 9 seasons. No group of players in the NBA is more patient than Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Bruce Bowen, and Tim Duncan. Not one.

Mistakes, such as dropping Andrew Bogut because of a sprained wrist, can be costly. The faster you're moving in the game of fantasy basketball, the faster you'll make those costly miscues. And it's not that dropping Bogut is season-threatening, but whatever player you added for him will likely deliver numbers that are a step down from his production. You're also likely to face Bogut (etc.) in the future anyway, so don't let the same player hurt you twice. Not to mention, if you dropped Bogut for a Martell Webster, there's a good chance that you just added to your strengths and subtracted from your weaknesses. Points and 3-pointers are flashy and everything, but the rebounds, FG%, and blocks that most bigs provide are just as essential (if not more because of their rarity compared to points/3's). There's just no need to make quick, rash decisions when the moves you make will hurt your chances of claiming that elusive fantasy championship.

To drop a player like Andrew Bogut (which I did actually witness in a private league recently) is a step toward giving up on your season. Only an impatient player that can't stand having an injured (yet talented) player on his team could pull that off. Don't be that guy. That brash decision-making will likely cause a number of un-warranted adds and drops throughout the season. A majority of those additions will be hitting the Waiver pool a day later anyway. You're much better off being the guy who drafted Ronnie Brewer in the last round. You know, the one who got 7 steals, 60+ FG%, 80+ FT%, and 31 points in the first two games out of a last-round draft pick. There's a comparative difference here. And while this may not be the difference between last place and first, a series of patient moves, or non-moves, can make all the difference in the world.

You might even want to be the guy who drafted Elton Brand in the second to last round so that your bigs can dominate the playoffs. Now that's a show of patience. But what do I know; I'm the one going around making Johnny Carson metaphors.

Waiver-Wire Wonders ::

John Salmons :: SG/SF, Sacramento Kings
Before I started my rant about patience in fantasy basketball, I noted that Carson wasn't the focus of this article. What is, then? Or should I say who? It's this guy right here. Salmons has taken the Kings by storm (or Hurricane, if you will) since starting point guard Mike Bibby went down with a thumb injury. The former first-rounder has been starving for an opportunity for years, and after two gems, he's finally showing what he's capable of. Good thing, because Bibby's going to be out for a while. Salmons will be a Waiver Wire stud for the next two months minimum. See how patience pays off?

Damien Wilkins :: SG/SF, Seattle SuperSonics
Well, Seattle needs someone other than Kevin Durant and Chris Wilcox to score. Wilkins has stepped up to the challenge having scored 33 points in his first two games, but it's the 2.5 3's and 8.0 rebounds per game that catch my eye. It really doesn't hurt that he's thieved 1.5 steals per game and turned the ball over only once per contest, either. Wilkins, like Salmons, has just been anxiously anticipating the starters' minutes he's finally receiving. The results of his patience and perseverance are convincingly clear. Plus, with Durant drawing double coverage on certain trips down the floor, Wilkins will get better open looks than a peeping Tom. Zing.

Reggie Evans :: PF, Philadelphia 76ers
This 6'8" forward has patience of a different, yet still very necessary kind. He does all the dirty work for the 76ers offense, crashing boards and getting knocked around by those intimidating Eastern Conference fowards (ha!). Well anyway, Evans is a good bet to average double-digit rebounds in the 2007-'08 season, and his 50+ FG% and (around) 1 steal per game aren't too shabby either. You can't ditch the players who do the dirty work when their labor produces game-changing totals. Well, in rebounds anyway. Only 1-1.5 TO per game isn't harmful either.

Rashad McCants :: PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
There are four reasons to love McCants right now. First, the T'Wolves showed their confidence in the young guard by announcing they wouldn't pursue another guard following the Ricky Davis deal. Second, Minnesota already exercised their fourth-year option on him, with T'Wolves VP Kevin McHale explaining that he expects "... Rashad to be a big part of our future". Third, he's from North Carolina. That's always a plus. And finally, his line from Friday night. Nothing like a 23-point game to begin your magical third-year in the NBA. With Randy Foye out, there is nobody to threaten his position or playing-time opportunities.

Daniel Gibson :: PG/SG, Cleveland Cavaliers
The second-year Gibson had a decent start to the season in the opener, but his second game was spectacular for points and 3's. Gibson has also displayed the ability to block shots (1.5 per game thus far) and shoot well from inside the arc (61.1%). He battled Larry Hughes for the starting spot in the preseason, but the Cavs just decided to keep Hughes at the 2 and let Gibson run the point. Looks like his perseverance is paying off for his prospects as an NBA guard, but as a fantasy owner in need of his services, don't let his Leandro Barbosa-esque stats slip away.

As expected, players such as Paul Millsap, Kelenna Azubuike, Mickael Pietrus, Martell Webster, and Travis Outlaw are meeting or exceeding my expectations. Say that ten times fast. Actually, instead, just take note of how meticulous planning and research can bring huge positive impacts to a team. Even if you didn't draft any of these players, you could have played them over the course of the first two-to-three uneventful nights of the NBA season. Your opponent will never see it coming and it will only increase your chances of winning, so if you're serious about claiming that championship prize as your own, take the patient route and do the work. And above all, plan ahead for everything.

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This week the mysterious Ryan Grant becomes the Packers' newest starting running back, providing a possible option for fantasy owners burned by weeks of poor performances. The chart below shows the best Green Bay rushing performance for each game this season. It doesn't take long to figure out why the Packers rank dead last in the league in rushing offense this season.

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The GM meetings begin on Monday.  With marquee players such as Marlins 3B Miguel Cabrera and Twins SP Johann Santana being bandied about the Trade Rumor Circuit, these meeting will lay the groundwork for possible deals.  Given the early prices for players like this (Peter Gammons says a Yankees/Marlins deal begins with SP Phil Hughes), deals are unlikely to happen until later in the off-season if at all.

However, last Monday's trade between the Tigers and Braves may signal that teams could be willing to move quickly.  If there is some fire in the smoke coming out of this morning's Miami Herald where Marlins' GM Larry Beinfest does not dismiss out of hand the possibility of Alex Rodriguez playing in Florida.  To do so would mean Cabrera would have to be moved.  Whether that is across the diamond to 1B or to another team is unclear, but Beinfest is open to the idea.

To be serious players in the ARod bizarro sweepstakes (the winner gets to spend $200+MM), the Fish would likely need to clear Cabrera's estimated 2008 salary of $11MM.  A protracted bidding war in which several teams try to give as little as possible while the Marlins try to get as much as possible would eat into the time it would take to woo ARod and convince him that the Marlins are the picture of organizational stability that the Yankees were unable to provide.

Unless Florida is this year's Boston, and Scott Boras already has a deal in place with the Marlins just as he did with JD Drew last season.

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