FakeTeams

Fantasy Football Tips - Top 10 Movers In Average Draft Position

Eric Hz <info@faketeams.com> — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 12:53:36 GMT

With fantasy football drafts moving into the final days, here is a list of players who have moved up the ADP charts the most according to Mock Draft Central.

Player	Pos	Team	Current	Change	Week Ago	Change	2 Wk Ago	Change
Vincent Jackson	WR	SD	65.47	8.30%	70.92	1.40%	71.92	9.90%
James Jones	WR	GB	180.54	7.80%	194.56	-NR-	++
Jacoby Jones	WR	HOU	187.95	7.50%	202	-NR-	++
LenDale White	RB	TEN	96.63	7.30%	103.73	-1.90%	101.71	5.30%
Warrick Dunn	RB	ATL	99.08	6.90%	105.91	4.70%	110.91	11.90%
Ronald Curry	WR	OAK	131.02	6.80%	139.93	6.30%	148.73	13.50%
Bernard Berrian	WR	CHI	68.44	6.70%	73.01	-0.80%	72.43	5.80%
Jacksonville Jaguars	DEF	JAX	157.32	6.50%	167.59	-0.30%	167.06	6.20%
Ahman Green	RB	HOU	39.9	6.10%	42.33	1.70%	43.05	7.90%
Brandon Marshall	WR	DEN	165.24	5.80%	174.82	5.30%	184	11.40%

Fantasy Football - Draft Results of a Community Member

Eric Hz <info@faketeams.com> — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 20:42:41 GMT

A reader asked me what I would do in a .5PPR with his 8th pick in a 10-team league. My advice was to hope for Eagles RB Brian Westbrook to fall to his pick and then take a #1 WR with the 13th pick when the draft came back to him. Normally, I'd advise grabbing a RB at that point, but the format and the fact no #1WRs would be available when the draft came back in the 3rd round with the 28th pick informed my decision.

A look at who was the WRs who were taken between the 13th and 28th selection bears out the soundness of the reasoning. I would have taken a RB other than Clinton Portis with the expectation that there would still be a #1WR available in the 4th. This is classic second- guessing because I really don't like the RBs options at that 4th pick. However, this PPR starts 3 WRs so I'd have taken Buffalo's Lee Evans in the 4th and grabbed one of the RBs coming back.

With the 5th round pick, the available backs were Buffalo's Marshawn lynch, Tampa Bay's Cadillac Williams and Green Bays' Brandon Jackson. bklmu took Lynch, and there isn't a big argument there as Lynch is expected to be a receiving option in addition to the lead back.

When the draft snaked back five pick later, I'd have taken Titans'QB Vince Young. With a starting RB tandem of Brian Westbrook and Marshawn Lynch, I'd take Young's expected 500+ yards rushing and handful of rushing TDs and consider those an extra half an RB.

At this point, the hypothetical alternate selections become much dicier to predict. With the D'Angelo Williams pick, I would have likely went for a LenDale White RB risk, but that is just preference. I do love the K selection with the third to last selection. New England's Stephen Gostkowski is projected by PFP to be the best kicker this season.

Any thing you'd do differently?

Round

Direction

Team 1

Team 2

Team 3

Team 4

Team 5

Team 6

Team 7

bklmu

Team 9

Team 10

Direction

L2R

L.Tomlinson

S.Jackson

L.Johnson

F.Gore

S.Alexander

J.Addai

W.parker

B.Westbrk

R.Johnson

L.Maroney

C.Benson

S.Smith

E.james

T.Ownes

C.Johnson

T.Henry

P.Manning

M.Harrison

R.Bush

W.Maghee

R2L

L2R

R.Brown

B.Jacobs

T.Housh

M.J.Drew

A.PetersoV

T.Holt

R.Wayne

A.Boldin

T.Jones

R.Williams

A.Gates

J.Walker

J.Norwood

M.Barber

D.Brees

L.E vans

J.Lewis

C.Portis

C.Palmer

L.FitzGld

R2L

L2R

M.Colston

T.Brady

j.Galloway

D.McNabb

A.Johnson

D.McAllster

l.Betts

M.Bulger

H.Ward

D.Driver

B.Edwards

R.Brown

P.Buress

Ca.Johnson

C.Williams

V.young

V.jackson

M.Lynch

R.Moss

j.Kitna

R2R

L2R

D.branch

Br.Jackson

T.Romo

J.Horn

S.Moss

A.Green

D.Foster

D.Williams

C.Chambers

L.Jordon

F.taylor

J.Shockey

T.Bell

A.Gonzalez

D.jackson

T.Gonzalz

J.Cotchery

L.Coles

Ma.Clayton

T.Glenn

R2L

L2R

M.Leinart

Chicago

V.Davis

Baltimore

J.Cutler

DJ.Hackett

K.Winslow

T.Heap

A.Crumpler

C.Cooley

K.Curtis

D.StllWrth

D.Hendersn

M.Turner

L.Washtn

B.Berrian

W.Dunn

C.Taylor

J.Jones

S.Holmes

R2L

L2R

P.Rivers

M.Jenkins

G.Jennings

E.Manning

L.White

New Engld

B.Marshall

M.Muhamd

C.Brown

R.Droughns

Miami

M.Jones

M.Bell

J.Wilkins

LJ.Smith

Al.Smith

B.Farve

Br.JonesT

San Diego

M.Hsslbck

R2L

L2R

G.Olsen

A.Thomas

C.HenryC

D.Mason

Green Bay

B.Leonard

J.Witten

Dallas

J.Porter

I.Bruce

M.Schaub

C.HenryTN

M.Booker

C.Buckhltr

N.Kaeding

A.Viniateri

Jac.Jones

D.Bennett

B.Rothsbrg

V.Morency

R2L

L2R

T.Ginn

JP.Losman

J.Delhomme

R.McMchel

NwOrlns

P.Crighton

Denver

Pittsberg

M.Stovall

D.Clark

Carolina

R.Dayne

NYJets

M.Lewis

T.Schefflr

K.Jones

Oaklan

JAX

M.Stover

Minnesota

R2L

L2R

O.Mare

S.Graham

K.BrownHOU

Tenessee

N.Rackers

DD.Dorsey

R.Gould

Gostkowski

C.Sapp

J.Hanson

September Call-Up Results

Eric Hz <info@faketeams.com> — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 17:09:16 GMT

The September 1st roster expansion has brought some intriguing prospects to the sleepers list for 2008. here is a run down of several and what they did on their first day.

Stephen Pearce, Pittsburgh 1B:

With Adam LaRoche at 1B, the Pirates started Stephen pearce in RF in his major league debut. He went 2-4 to with no boxscore error.

Nyjer Morgan, Pittsburgh OF:

Morgan singled in his major league debut and drew a walk in his second AB. Unfortunately, the minor league speedster's main skill went unused in similar ways former Pirate Rajai Davis' was - he did not steal any bases.

Clay Buchholz, Boston SP:

In case you were unaware, he threw a no-hitter.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston CF:

Doubled in one AB and drove-in two runs. There appears little reason for Coc Crisp to extend his lease through the 2008 year.

Brandon Moss, Boston RF:

He started in LF and went 1-3 and drew a walk. There is no reason to believe he could not be an excellent 4th OF in 2008 and back-up all three OF positions.

Geovany Soto, Cubs C:

The 2007 Pacific Coast League MVP did not play.

Joe Koshansky, Rockies 1B:

Pinch-hitting in the 9th inning of a 13-7 loss, he grounded out in his major league debut.

Rich Thompson, Anaheim RP:

The 2007 XM Radio Futures Game attendee, pitched one scoreless inning and struck out two Rangers. He is the next in the long line of hard-throwing Angels' relievers.

Jonathan Meloan, Los Angeles RP:

In his major league debut, he pitched two scoreless innings at the end of a 6-1 loss. In those innings, he allowed no hits, but walked three.

Chin-Lung Hu, Los Angeles SS:

Came into a 6-0 game in the 7th inning and got one AB and grounded out. I'm sensing an Anaheim Macier Izturis-esque 2008.

Phillip Humber, Mets SP:

Did not pitch.

Ian Kennedy, Yankees SP:

Opponent aside - the free-swinging-pitch missing Tampa Bay Devil Rays, an excellent major league debut with seven innings pitched, six Ks and just one walk. However, those 10 flyballs to just five groundballs tempers my enthusiasm.

NFL Notes - Roster Cut Edition

Skeller <info@faketeams.com> — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 09:40:22 GMT

Byron Leftwich, QB, FA - As expected, the Jaguars cut QB Byron Leftwich a day after they named David Garrard their starting QB. A team spokesman said of the move: "Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out". OK, not really. But the man who was once considered the key to the franchise certainly fell from grace quickly. He'll turn up somewhere though, possibly Atlanta or St. Louis.

Kenton Keith, RB, Indianapolis - Not satisfied with having the obscure DeDe Dorsey as the backup to RB Joseph Addai, the Colts cut Dorsey in favor of the even more obscure Kenton Keith. Keith is a free agent out of New Mexico State who's never had an NFL carry. Wonderful. He may get 50 carries or so this season, but isn't worth anything other than as a handcuff for Addai owners.

Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit - After announving earlier in the week that Jones would start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, the Lions have changed their minds and said that he won't be on the list, instead he'll start the season on the 53-man roster. Keeping off the PUP list allows Jones to participate in team practices which is the benefit the Lions want from this move. He'll have almost zero fantasy value for the first six weeks of the season anyway, so from a fantasy perspective this is a bad choice. What's more likely, that Jones will improve significantly after six weeks of light practice or that he'll aggravate the injury? The Lions must really have faith in Tatum Bell, huh?

Matt Prater, K, Atlanta - Former Cowboy and Saint Billy Cundiff was cut in favor of Prater, another guy with no NFL experience. He's a low end fantasy kicker, at least until we know how the Falcons offense performs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, FA -- The Rams said goodbye to backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick yesterday. The Harvard grad didn't have any fantasy value, the only reason I'm bringing it up is because he holds a special place in recent fantasy football lore: On December 11th, 2005 he threw five interceptions in a single game.

Fantasy Football Tips - QBs

Eric Hz <info@faketeams.com> — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 18:55:46 GMT

In prepartion for the 2007 fantasy football season, I deviated from my typical read-only method of prepartion (internet, newspapers, existing magazine subscriptions coverage) and went out and purchased two football-specific books, Pro Football Prospectus and K.C. Joyner's Scientific Football 2007. Both have augmented my knowledge and ability to evaluate players in ways I had not previously.

I have tried to pass on some of the tidbits I have picked-up and find the PFP2007 easier to convey because it is set-up in a more traditional manner. SF2007 is slightly different in that it focuses exclusively on the passing game - QBs, WRs, TEs, CBs and Ss. It is also filled with various Excel-based reproduced charts. These take-up the first 158 pages of the 374-page guide.

As a result, I have not brought a lot of information from it to the Fake Teams' readership. However, I did some pain-staking transcription from the books charts back into Excel in the hopes that I could mine some of the data. At the very least, it allows me to sort by a criteria other than the one from SC2007 - Yards Per Attempt. I was also able to calculate some rates of dispersion - standard deviation and high/low.

I wanted to see both because I sense that the YPA is constrained to a fairly tight range, and was not disappointed to see a YPA of +/-1 sigma to be 6.1 YPA to 7.5 YPA. That 1.4 YPA range comes out to 549 more yards per season. That is a lot of yards, but works out to just 34 per game. That is basically one point per week in most fantasy leagues and does not strike me as meaningful.

By calculating rates of dispersion, I am also able to determine what to make of various depths of passes K.C. Joyner charts. Even with the rates, I still have no historical dat with which to compare. So what if the average number of Bombs thrown was 22.1. Without knowing what the average was in the preceeding years, I have no context, beyond the assumption that it was the same, to compare.

That aside, here are the QBs who threw more than 31 Bombs last year (22.1 AVG plus one sigma - 9.3). If you desire high reward QBs for your fantasy squad, there are a couple of surprises here.

Peyton Manning IND 39
Michael Vick ATL 39
Carson Palmer CIN 39
Brett Favre GB 34
JP Losman BUF 33
Marc Bulger STL 32
Rex Grossman CHI 32

Baseball Trade Deadline Analysis

Eric Hz <info@faketeams.com> — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 18:07:23 GMT

Yesterday was the deadline for teams to add players who will be eligible for post-season rosters. The day passed with just two trades - the Cubs acquired SP Steve Traschel from the Orioles for two AAA players, 3B Scott Moore and RP Rocky Cherry, and the Cardinals acquired 3B Russell Branyan from the Phillies for a PTBNL.

Scott Moore will be 24 in November. In AAA Iowa, he had a slashstat line of 265/373/526 with 19 HRs along with 100 Ks. Those numbers do not scream, "All Star", but, for a team who had no players with any ability to help the major league team at AAA, Moore is an improvement. At the least, he'll provide some transactional fodder as he goes back and forth between AAA and Camden Yards for a couple years.

Rocky Cherry is a 6'5 righthander whose size is not matched by his stats. 56 Ks in 51 IPs is not dominant, but, given the way the bullpen has pitched in the past couple weeks, Cherry can be useful. This deal is clearly a win for the Orioles.

The Cardinals could have used Scott Moore because Russell Branyan was acquired to play 3B for the 3B-depthless Cardinals following yesterday's move to disable Scott Rolen and the recent loss of Scott Spiezio to substance abuse rehabilitation. Expect Branyan to hit some HRs, strikeout a lot and take some walks. So far this season, he hit 9 HRs and walked 21 times in a mere 131 ABs - and struck out 54 times!

Those Ks are so high that I expect the Cardinals to be playing a 3B/SS/2B combination that rivals the pop of the Twins Punto/Bartlett/Casilla trio. At 3B, Brendan Ryan will be partnered on the left by SS David Eckstein, and, to his left, 2B Aaron Miles.

Do not be surprised to see additional infield depth added soon. 2B Edgar Gonzalez is hitting a respectable 310/379/451 at AAA Memphis with 49 BB and 67 Ks in 448 ABs. Also, waiver claimee from the Diamondbacks, 3B Brian Barden, could be recalled if only to provide some 3B depth. His 2007 season has been nothing but disappointing following his 2006 AAA 298/361/478 one. He has "produced" a mere 263/344/342 between Tuscon and Memphis.

Jaguars Name David Garrard Starter, Boot Byron Leftwich

Skeller <info@faketeams.com> — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 07:37:37 GMT

Remember what I said earlier about Byron Leftwich? Yeah, never mind.

In a surprise move, the Jacksonville Jaguars have named David Garrard as their starting quarterback and have announced that they're shipping Byron Leftwich out of town as fast as they can. From the Jags' official site:

The Jaguars will announce at a press conference late Friday afternoon their intention to trade quarterback Byron Leftwich prior to Saturday's six p.m. deadline for cutting the roster to 53 players. Head coach Jack Del Rio will simultaneously announce that David Garrard is the team's new official starting quarterback.

"We've gone through the offseason, training camp and the preseason with Byron as our starter, but after thorough ongoing evaluation of the entire body of work, we have made the decision that David gives us the best chance to win," Del Rio said. "We're naming David as our starting quarterback.

Wow. I had a been a fan of Leftwich, touting him as a sleeper this year. Oops. I have to admit, I never saw this coming. There was always the chance that Leftwich would get hurt (again) and Garrard would take over again, but the Jags giving Leftwich the boot in the preseason really caught me by surprise.

So, what about the fantasy value of Garrard? After blowing the Leftwich call, let me get some perspective from Big Cat Country, our excellent sister blog that covers everything Jaguars:

Let's get our facts straight.

Byron Leftwich, since his anointment as starting quarterback, has looked poor.

David Garrard, against second string defenses, has looked excellent.

Byron Leftwich, in regular season games, plays hard, with heart, and through injury until relieved by his coach.

David Garrard, in regular season games, can best be described as moments of brilliance followed by overwhelming disaster (see Tennessee)

What do the facts tell me? That we've got a new era in Jacksonville. But this era, in my not so expert opinion, is that we're gambling. Not like some teams do with aged veterans brought in to win now, but gambling that David can spark life into an offense that is simply sagging. If starting David gives us that jolt that puts the missing piece into our offense, then I'm all for it.

Hmmm, sounds like even the most partisan Jaguars fans are uneasy about this move.

Garrard has performed well over the past two seasons and you could easily make the argument that he's been better than Leftwich over that time. Garrard may have a solid fantasy season, but even if you're in a league that starts multiple quarterbacks there's no reason to draft him. If he breaks out early in the season after two easy games against Houston and Atlanta, then he may be worth a pickup.

This move also reduces the fantasy value of the Jacksonville receivers. A slight improvement over last season is probably the best you can expect from them.