Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Clint Capela (C). Since the start of February, Clint Capela has played a grand total of 25 games for the Hawks. Do you know how many of those yield a below-average FP/min mark? Two. Freaking two. Capela couldn’t log minutes for Atlanta after getting there last season, but he’s been a revelation this year. Just after the AS break, in the nine games, he’s been a part of, he’s putting up 1.35 FP/min a day and almost 40 FP per game. That’s great considering his salary has never reached $8K, it is usually at around $7.5K, and all of that together makes for one of the best ROI-returners out there available for pocket money. Cap is a virtual lock to give you his customary baseline of 15-15 every day, to shot 65%+ from the floor as he doesn’t know what “three-point” means, and to stay out of foul and turnover trouble while on a low usage rate he always makes the most of. Great play.
- Hate: Ben Simmons (PG/SF). Simmons isn’t fooling around. He’s straight tanking fantasy season and ruining fantasy lineups out there on a daily basis. Holy smokes. Five games in a row without reaching 40 FP is worrying as hell for this man, for real. The Sixers are 7-3 in the last 10 games, sure, but on a two-game losing streak that has coincided with Benny having 25- and 20-DKFP fantasy nights. Those came against stout teams in the Clips and the Nugs, but that’s no excuse for one of the true talents of the game out there. You might think the low playing time (26 minutes in each of those matches) is the thing causing those low tallies, but nope. Simmons wasn’t efficient at all on a per-minute basis either, playing at-or-below league-average levels in those two when combining his DKFP with his minutes. Sucks to watch, and with Cleveland’s second-worst fantasy D in the whole league, I’m betting on another 25-minute, low-scoring game from Ben. Too much BS to trust him.
- Love: Brandon Ingram (SF/PF). Ingram was fantastic last season. He was also rather nice from tipoff to mid-January. Then Zion arrived from Mars, put on Thanos’ gauntlet, and became New Orleans’ go-to player and clear no. 1. That’s cool, and that’s true, and that will keep being the case—and the gap will get wider by the day—ROS and forever. But Ingram seems to be getting it right slowly but surely. He has had a couple of stinkers this week, I know, but he’s also dropped 35+ FP in six of his 10 games after the break and he’s quite affordable these days, making him a viable play if you want high upside and ROI. At the end of the day, BI is hitting 25 pops a night in the past couple of weeks, to go with 4 boards and almost 5 dimes on a high 30% usage rate. It’s Zion and BI over here, and the former—along with Lonzo Ball—is questionable tonight. So you know what’s about to happen. It’s either Ingram doing it all or nothing for the Pels against a horrid Magic. Must-play.
- Hate: Victor Oladipo (SG). If you’re an avid analyst and you check Vic’s game log for the season, you’ll arrive at a conclusion: Dipo is a man for debuts. First game of the year: 22 pops with a 4-4-1 rest-of-line shooting a massive 64% from the floor, and committing just 1 TO in 28 low minutes for a great 1.22 FP/min. First game as a Rocket: 32-5-9-2 stuffed line, 4 treys, 56% from the floor and a massive 42% usage rate in 32 minutes. Tonight? The expected debut of Oladipo with the Miami Heat. Tonight, also? A dud. See, I don’t doubt Dipo’s talent and abilities, but tame your expectations out there, folks. Dipo is getting into a lineup that already features a couple of dogs in Jimmer and Bam, and with Nunn questionable odds are Dragic finds a way to start as in the past two games. What I’m saying is, fade Vic at least for a bit and let him marinate in Florida waters before lining him up.
- Love: Collin Sexton (PG/SG). Definitely not the sexiest of plays out there with the Sixers at the other end having the 2nd-best fantasy D in the L, but still. Sex is way cheap these days... so the ROI will always be there and he is just going to hit his baseline of 30 FP even if he plays horridly bad tonight. It’s been two weeks of games hitting that mark for Collin (seven different matches) and he’s been playing at-or-above average on an FP/min basis in all of them with an actual 1.05 mark in that span. The minutes are as high as ever at 36 MPG in the last seven, and the line reads 25-4-4-1. Sexton’s mojo is on the scoring side of things, and data says he should regress a bit on the trey-circuit as he’s hit just one long-ranger in the past three games compared to 14 in the five matches prior to that combined. All things considered, including the fact that Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. have been declared out today, Sexton will eat whether he likes it or not.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 13 (Mar. 22 to Mar. 28)
- Joel Embiid is out. LeBron James is out. Nobody is believing—for some reason—in James Harden’s chances. All of that, combined with Nikola Jokic's seemingly ever-improving numbers, is making the Joker the clear-cut and leading MVP candidate of the 2021 season. Another week of games, another lead for Jokic at the top of last week’s fantasy leaderboard thanks to his 57 FP per game. Jokic was the only player to break the 55-fantasy point barrier on the deadline week.
- It was a rather weird week when it comes to those making it to the top of the board, as the names behind Jokic are not your usual ones. Zion finished second, followed by De’Aaron Fox, Karl-Anthony Towns, Russ, Donovan Mitchell, Kawhi, Siakam, Tatum, Young, Wall, and Sabonis. Again, not your usual suspects.
- Although Jokic was the best player on a per-game basis, Donovan Mitchell edged him with a 1.68 FP/min compared to Jokic’s 1.64. Makes sense, considering Mitchell played just 31 MPG to Jokic’s 34 in the same span and number of games (four each).
- Of the top-10 players in this past week’s leaderboard, only two finished with an FP-deviation below 3 FP (min. 3 GP). Kawhi (1.9) and Mitchell (2.2) were the best two, with Mitchell’s effort being notable given he played one more game than Kawhi, logged more FP/G, and all of his matches ended in between 49-and-54 FP. Solid as a rock.
- Surprise, surprise. Russ was the lone player putting up a trip-dub through the week with a 15-14-10 line in three games played averaging 35 MPG. The FP/G mark was high at 53, but not enough to top the leaderboard. Only Jokic (25-10-8) finished close enough to the trip-dub line this past week.
- Silly cheap values: Mann, Ariza, Thanasis, Kira Lewis, Juan Hernangomez, Aminu, Bitadze, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Nico Mannion, McLemore.
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Moses Brown, Jalen Brunson, NAW, Monk, Burks, Barrett, Covington, Anunoby, Kanter, Nunn, Hardaway Jr., Millsap.
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Beal, Simmons, LaVine, DeRozan, Wood, Booker, Lowry, Ingram, Hayward, Chris Paul, Jerami Grant, PJ Washington, Aaron Gordon
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Monk, Brunson, Mann, Grayson Allen, McLemore, Ellington, Okeke, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Juan Hernangomez, McDermott, Kira, Mills
- Cheap threes: McLemore, Ellington, Grayson, Anfernee, Okeke, Mills, Monk, Mannion, Sumner, Forbes, Melton, Niang, Bogdan Bogdanovic, McDermott, Garrison Matthews
- Cheap boards: Aminu, Mann, Favors, Ariza, Claxton, Birch, Juan Hernangomez, Brunson, Batum, Gay, Bitadze, Iggy, Millsap
- Cheap dimes: Gabe Vincent, Kira, Mannion, D.J. Augustin, Bledsoe, Saben Lee, Brunson, Lamb, Batum, Millsap, Campazzo, Cory Joseph
- Cheap steals: Caruso, Winslow, Mykhailiuk, Thybulle, Millsap, Dean Wade, Birch, Grant Williams
- Cheap blocks: Favors, Alex Len, Bitadze, Robin Lopez, Derrick Jones, Jaden McDaniels, Thybulle, Brodric Thomas, Ariza, Gay, Gafford, D.J. Wilson, Metu, Diakite, Toupane, Jeff Green
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Monk, McDermott, Brunson, Mann, Okeke, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Millsap, Derrick Jones, Neto, Jeff Green
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!