Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at FakeTeams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Trae Young (PG). Third-highest salary, sure, but potentially the best play of the day right there. Trae is tagged almost a full grand below Dame (questionable) and $1.5K below no. 1 Jokic, who might sit for long stretches if Denver dominates, which is not out of the realm of possibilities here. Trae came back from his AS snub with an attitude, putting on consecutive 45+ DKFP games... to then turn into a rather shaky asset with games ranging from 25 fantasy points to as many as 44. His past three, though, have been sublime. Young is back at playing 36+ minutes nightly, has dropped 49, 47, and 47 DKFP in that span, dropped an average 26-3-10 dub-dub, shot 45% from the floor and he’s going to the line 7 times a night hitting virtually every single shot he takes there. These Hawks will need Trae ROS if they want to make that postseason berth a reality, and that “starts” tonight against Denver.
- Hate: CJ McCollum (PG/SG). CeeJay seems to be finally catching fire. He’s been in a mood for a couple of games in back-to-back nights against Miami and Orlando and he will be looking to keep it up in Florida facing the Tampa Raps. It could very well happen, as Dame is not a sure thing to come back tonight. But McCollum is shooting bad since he came back in Mar. 16 a couple of weeks ago. See, CJ is hitting just 35% of his floor shots, and he’s had to shot a ridiculous 135 rocks toward the rim to amass his total 139 points in that span. Yes. You read that right. McCollum is just scoring one point per shot, which is definitely not going to cut it for me as a great mark. CJ is not getting to the free-throw line, which isn’t helping either, and his rest-of-line isn’t great at all with a ceiling sitting near the 5 boards and 5 dimes if everything clicks for him. He can put on another show tonight, surely, but I’m just not buying and would rather let him marinate for a little longer.
- Love: Pascal Siakam (PF). The three main Raps are coming at very similar salaries, but Siakam is absolutely and undoubtedly the go-to play and guy to go with on today’s slate. While both Lowry and FVV have been a little bit down of late, Pasky has excelled. Siakam missed time from Feb. 24 to Mar. 17, came back a little bit rusty, but he’s strung three games of 43, 51, and 53 FP against Houston, Denver, and Phoenix—all from Mar. 22 on. Not only has Siakam been great, but he’s also now playing in a team that won’t have Norman Powell around, and in which Gary Trent Jr. is taking his place, something that shouldn’t impact Siakam’s numbers at all. Pascal has two dub-dubs in his last three games and finished just 2 boards short of pulling off the trifecta through the week. Let’s make it three-of-four with another one today in the revenge/friendly game between Raps and Blazs.
- Hate: John Collins (PF/C). Collins is coming off his best game of the year thanks to his great 61-FP performance translated from a 38-12-2-1 line with 4 treys on top of that. That’s an insane outing, but that’s also a hell of an outlier. Collins had never dropped more than 35 points this year, the 4 treys had happened just twice before, and the 12 boards were also the second-highest tally of the year for him in 45 games. I mean, yes, that’s the ceiling, but what are the odds he goes into a similar rampage tonight facing a much tougher D than that of the Warriors, against which he had that monster game? Collins will be facing the duo of Jokic and Aaron Gordon today, the latter making his debut and surely looking to make a good first impression for the Nugs. Not liking this one just one bit.
- Love: Jamal Murray (PG). I was doubting between Murray and debutant Aaron Gordon, but I’m thinking AG will be more impactful in defense stopping JoCo while keeping it on the low offensively, so that’s why I’m picking Jam here. He’s a little more expensive, I know, but he will also have plenty of capable players around waiting for his dimes, and the D won’t have as many chances to focus and close on him and Jokic. Murray will play around the Joker and Gordon and Will Barton, all of them capable shooters and able to get to the rim. Murray has been returning great value for his truthers in six consecutive games, never dropping below 36 FP. He’s averaging 24+ PPG since Mar. 19, the minutes are high as hell at almost 38 MPG in that span, and the overall line sits at a near 24-3-7-2 with a massive 3.2 3PG.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from Week 11-12 (Mar. 15 to Mar. 21)
- For some with so strong stat-sheet-stuffing tendencies as Russell Westbrook, it is surprising that he doesn’t top the weekly fantasy leaderboard more often. He finally did during the past seven days and four games he’s played. Russ put up an average of 68 FP while keeping up a 28-12-13-1 line in that span. Not bad, even more considering he dropped the most efficient per-minute mark of the week at 1.75 FP/min.
- Luka Doncic is the only other player to break the 65-FP barrier, though his contributions were lower all-around with a 35-8-9-1 line. Giannis, Jokic, and Harden all reached 60+ FP on the week.
- Nikola Jokic tied Russ for the most FP/min (1.75), but he reached that mark averaging four fewer minutes per game, making Russ’ feat more impressive all things considered.
- Among the 60-FP group of players, Luka was the most “stable” one as he logged a deviation of just 9 FP per game. A little less explosive on the total FP leaderboard, yet virtually a lock to hit 48 FP nightly was Jaylen Brown, who logged a stupidly low 2.2 FP deviation in the past four games.
- Only Russ and Giannis were able to close the week averaging trip-dubs, although Anteto did so in just three games compared to Westbrook’s four. James Harden and Trae Young dub-dubbed on dimes, while 11 other players did so on points and boards (Jokic and Julius Randle both came just 1.5 APG short of trip-dubbing).
- Silly cheap values: Moses Brown, Poole, Bullock, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Theis, Len, Lonnie, Satoransky, Danny Green, Grayson Allen, Marcus Morris, Claxton, Looney.
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Joe Ingles, DiVincenzo, Keldon Johnson, Wiggins, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Brown, Holmes, Aaron Gordon, Thad Young, Buddy, Mason Plumlee, Fournier
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Trae, LeBron, Sabnois, Tatum, Lowry, Porzingis, Morant, Jarrett Allen, C.J. McCollum
- Cheap points (min. 3 games played): Poole, Loonie, NAW, THT, Bullock, Patty Mills, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Frank Jackson, Marcus Morris, Moses Brown, Alex Len, Isaiah Stewart, Grayson Allen
- Cheap threes: Bullock, NAW, Mills, Poole, Devonte’ Graham, BogBog, Jerome, Kleber, Marcus Morris, Otto Porter
- Cheap boards: Moses Brown, Daniel Theis, Len, Tony Bradley, Markieff Morris, Connaughton, Stewart, Aminu, McGee, Whiteside
- Cheap dimes: Satoransky, Campazzo, Rondo, THT, Osman, Cam Payne, Theis, Saben Lee, Kenrich Williams, Jerome, Caruso, Cory Joseph, BogBog, Mills
- Cheap steals: Campazzo, Bullock, Satoransky, Osman, Neto, Jaden McDaniels, Grayson Allen
- Cheap blocks: Claxton, Moses Brown, Thybulle, Bitadze, Whiteside, Biyombo, NAW, Derrick Jones
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): Poole, Frank Jackson, THT, Bullock, Loonie, Moses Brow, Marcus Morris, BogBog
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!