Welcome to your daily NBA DFS digest at Fake Teams, gents. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro-tips to roster a winning team just a few hours from now. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from the past week of games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best/Worst DraftKings plays for tonight’s slate
- Love: Khris Middleton (SG/SF). There is no way Khris put up another dud such as that of G1. It’s close between Midd and Jrue for the no. 1 Love today, but both of them look so good that I have been forced to talk pick the two of them in today’s column. Midd could only reach a low 31 DKFP in the first game against the Hawks, but that came down to an outlier performance. Middleton shot a nonsensical 26% from the floor on a more than healthy 23 FGA, yet he just finished with 15 points including going 3-of-4 from the free-throw line. The rest of the line wasn’t high but still good enough at 5-4-2. The points were killing him, no more, no less. Throw 15 more pops right there and we’re talking about a much tastier 45-FP play. That’s what should happen tonight with Midd bouncing back to his usual self.
- Hate: Clint Capela (C). Capela and Collins scored the exact same amount of DKFP in G1, both finishing with 44. Capela was better on the boards, while Collins was better on the scoring department. Capela finished 12-19-2-1-1 and Collins went for 23-15-1. The thing is, Capela only shot the rock 9 times (no free throws) while Collins attempted 16 in the same playing time. As I see it, Collins' outcomes seem to be more sustainable than Capela’s, mostly because of the largest usage rate (20% compared to 10%) and volume of shots (which means easier DKFP via scoring). Capela is a great rebounder, but it’s not that he’ll be pulling down 20 boards on a nightly basis, and the shots are just down to a couple per quarter, which is straight ridiculous. I’d stay on the Collins camp for now and fade Captain Cap.
- Love: Jrue Holiday (PG/SG). We might see a little bump down in Jrue’s total tally when the final buzzer blazes, but even then we could very well be talking about a 50-DKFP performance in G2. Jrue was insane to kick the series off, putting up a 1.46 FP/min mark only bested by Giannis and Trae amount players with at least 15 minutes of playing time. Holiday did it all, finishing with 33 pops (5 treys, no freebies), 4 boards, and a dub-dubbing 10 dimes to go with 2 steals and a block to put the cherry on top. The fact that he got to attempt 25 FGA on the day was pretty encouraging and bodes well for him going forward, as he equaled the volume of Giannis and topped that of Middleton. There will be swings as the series grow deeper, but it can’t look much better for Jrue right now.
- Hate: Bogdan Bogdanovic (PG/SG). I know this might be seen as an easy Hate because Bog seems to be a little bit banged up, but this is about minimizing risks and there are a ton involved in lining this man up. BogBog went on and played 27 minutes even if not fully fit, and that’s to praise. If he was out there in G1 odds are he is tonight once more and probably playing on an even heavier role. The problem is that Bog was plain bad finishing with a paltry 16 FP on a putrid 17% shooting night in which he attempted 6 FGA. The line was good all things considered with a 4-3-2-3 only destroyed by those stupid 4 points. Bog will reach a point in the series when he just gets it right, hits his 5 treys, and goes off for a monster 40 DKFP. But with his middling status and all of the issues he might be going through, this pick doesn’t seem as a sound and reasonable one at least for another game.
What’s cooking? Statistical trends from the Regular Season
- Nikola Jokic is about to become the reigning MVP... in the NBA, but not in the fantasy world! Russell Westbrook, who has been on a tear for the last month-and-change, is the one on that front, folks. Westbrook closed the season averaging 58.2 FP per game, good enough to edge Nikola Jokic by a measly 0.6 FPPG!
- On a pure counting basis, though, Jokic gets the edge as he played seven more games than Russ. The final tally is Jokic 3,914 FP, Russ 3,548 FP. No other player crossed the 3,400-FP mark on the year.
- The most efficient player of the season was Giannis Antetokounmpo, who posted 1.72 FP/min in 57 games averaging 33.5 MPG. Both biggies Jokic and Joel Embiid rounded up the top-3 with similar scores of 1.62 FP/min.
- It is reasonable to expect centers to top the Points Per Shot leaderboard as they operate in the paint most of the time. The top-3 players were Rudy Gobert (1.84 Pts/Shot), Jarrett Allen (1.78), and Dwight Howard (1.76). But there is a clear outlier among the top scorers: Kevin Durant with 1.70 Points Per Shot. That’s absolutely bonkers for a non-center player. If we don’t count Zion as a wing (he’s a biggie to me given his shooting profile), then Durant is the only qualified non-center in the top-20, with Jimmy Butler at no. 21 but already down at 1.51 Pts/Shot.
- As stupid as it sounds even if nobody wants to acknowledge the feat anymore: Russ has just wrapped up his fourth season averaging a triple-double. What the hell, dude? Russ closed it on a 22-11-11 average line. Bonkers.
- Silly cheap values (min. 30 games played): Kenyon Martin Jr., Ty Jerome, JaVale, Stewart, Brunson, Melton, Hart, Rudy Gay, Portis, Nunn, Robert Williams, Reiz, Cody Zeller, Whiteside, Diallo
- A little more expensive but still with massive ROI: Olynyk, Garland, Thad Young, Plumlee, McConnell, Dray, Harrison Barnes, Derrick White, Lonzo, Holmes, Rose, Anunoby, Nurkic, Ant Edwards, Haliburton, Bobby Portis, Kemba
- Some very expensive players not doing enough: Anthony Davis, Simmons, Booker, Ingram, Porzingis, Drummond, John Collins, Nance, Aaron Gordon, Kuzma, Harrell
- Cheap points: McDermott, Monk, Quickley, Lonnie, Bacon, Reid, Poole, Bullock, Mills, Jerome, Grayson Allen, NAW, Monte Morris, Lamb, Forbes, Gary Harris
- Cheap threes: Danny Green, Ellington, Bullock, Mills, Forbes, Monk, Jerome, Grayson, Shamet, Cam Johnson
- Cheap boards: Willy Hernangomez, Stewart, Noel, Mo Bamba, Whiteside, Tony Bradley, Birch, Vanderbilt, Favors, Taj Gibson, Biyombo, Kleber, Bruce Brown, Kenyon, Baynes, McGee
- Cheap dimes: Satoransky, Rondo, McLaughlin, Ish Smith, Tyus, Jerome, Saben Lee, Campazzo, Cam Payne, Cory Joseph, DJ Augustin, Monte Morris
- Cheap steals: Thybulle, Danny Green, Campazzo, Neto, Caruso, Melton, Okeke, Noel, McLaughlin, Bazemore, Vanderbilt, Nwaba, NAW, Okoro, Cory Joseph, Iggy
- Cheap blocks: Noel, Gafford, Mo Bamba, Bitadze, Stewart, Whiteside, Biyombo, McGee, Gasol, Thybulle, Taj Gibson, Reiz, Favors, Len, Pokusevski, Derrick Jones, Eubanks
- Cheap FG% (min. 8 FGA): McDermott, Reid, Monte Morris, Bullock, Jerome, NAW, Cam Johnson, Jaylen Nowell
If you have any comment or question about the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even season-long fantasy NBA topics, just drop it below or reach out to me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I grab a keyboard!