Another Friday, so another day of MLB DFS Wars. Last week, Matt Truss of Razzball ran away from the field with a score of 181.65. Truss used plenty of Coors pieces, a cheap Shohei Ohtani, and a resurgent Blake Snell en route to victory. Funny thing is, Snell and Ohtani are again available for this slate, though Snell gets a rough draw against Jacob deGrom. Ohtani is firmly in play, however. More on that in a tick, so we may as well dive in...
SFG at WAS is again messy, with a PPD possible. That’s a game you’ll have to check right up until lock. HOU at MIN has some warm weather (86 degrees) and 10 MPH winds blowing out, so that’ll be a popular spot for sure (though maybe a tiny bit less so now that it’s Bailey Ober getting the nod over Matt Shoemaker). There are other rain spots that I won’t get into, but nothing that looks crazy. Check your favorite weatherperson, cause that ain’t me.
If you cross Scherzer off—arguable whether you want to or not—then it’s deGrom, Woodruff, and Giolito in the upper tier. Me, I’m sorta leaning into Lucas Giolito. I mean, he’s facing the Detroit Tigers, after all. When else would you lean into him? If not not, then just cross him off your boards forever. The Tigers have the worst strikeout rate against right-handers in all of baseball (27.1%) and the .154 ISO is exactly middling (15th). Over the last seven days, the Tigers have a 23.9% K-rate and have actually hit 12 homers, which is tied for the league lead. But you’re picking a side here, with one side being Giolito and the other being headlined by Eric Haase and Jonathan Schoop, who have seven of the 12 Detroit homers in the last week. Call me crazy, but I’m rolling with Giolito here if paying up for pitching. He just saw Detroit in his last turn and struck out nine batters over seven innings, with zero walks. He did allow three homers, but I’m not banking on another Miggy homer or another double-dong day from Haase. I can’t get away from the cheapest guy in a tier, sue me. We’ll see how this one plays out.
I don’t really want any part of Kershaw against Texas or Snell in New York against deGrom. Kershaw has been giving up uncharacteristic amounts of runs lately, and Snell is too up-and-down for my liking (plus deGrom on the opposing hill). I’d rather pay down for...
SHOHEI OHTANI AT ONLY $8,100. What is wrong with the DraftKings’ algo? When will Ohtani hit the 9K price point? Your guess is as good as mine! But until he does, I’m playing him liberally, likely far more than most. The matchup in Arizona isn’t threatening, are without one big bat in Christian Walker (much like they have been all season).
I have some interest in Tarik Skubal at home versus the White Sox, which is boom-or-bust given Chicago’s power and strikeout ability. I prefer Skubal over Cole Irvin, who I sort of like but I view the Royals as a pretty annoying offense to attack. The Royals have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against southpaws, at only 21.2%. They aren’t overly powerful with a .147 ISO, but the strikeouts probably won’t be there for Irvin, and we need those in the DFS game.
I’m going all-in on the late-night hammer that is the Los Angeles Dodgers against Mike Foltynewicz. You can still land Cody Bellinger for under 5K on DraftKings, and you get some lovely flexibility with Chris Taylor (2B/OF) and Max Muncy (1B/2B) that can let you mix and match your favorite punt plays. The loss of Matt Shoemaker in the HOU/MIN game means I’m less nuts for Houston tonight—yes, Ober is an upgrade—so I’m landing firmly in L.A.
Speaking of punt plays, I can’t get away from Bobby Dalbec ($2,100) at home against Ross Stripling. It’s not really any bigger than I expect the Sox to pound on Stripling, and I like guys like Dalbec who are priced so low with a lot of power that they can pay off their salary with one swing of the bat.
Max Stassi ($3,100) has been red-hot of late, and has been moving up in the lineup as a result. He takes on the righty Merrill Kelly, who has shown flashes but been inconsistent. I love him at his price point. Give me all the cheap catchers!
The Reds should be popular tonight, and there are some cheap pieces in Jonathan India ($4,200) and Tyler Stephenson ($3,900) to help you squeeze in the epic play that is Nick Castellanos ($4,800) at home against a questionable lefty in Kyle Freeland. Castellanos is batting an absurd .409/.435/.727 against lefties, with a .318 ISO and .492 wOBA. It’s a small sample still (), but a whopping 48.6% line drive rate and a 57.1% hard contact rate. It’s nasty, and it’s a strong play—it’s just a bit costly at near 5K in salary.
Lastly, it’s not a thing on DK, but shouts to Bubba and the MLB DFS Quick Hits pod for mentioning that Freddie Freeman is only $2,800 on FanDuel tonight. Yikes. Enjoy that free square if you play over there (I don’t). That’s enough to make me consider it, though...
Who are YOU playing in your MLB DFS lineups tonight, ladies and gents? Am I going fishing with my Dodgers?