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Northern Trust: Expert Picks

Don’t sleep on Justin Rose

By Mark Abell
The Northern Trust - Final Round Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Tournament Information

Northern Trust
Date: August 20th – 23rd
Course: TPC Boston
Purse: $9.5MM ($1.7MM to winner)
FedEx points: 1,500 to winner
2019 Winner: Patrick Reed (-16)

Course

TPC Boston — Built in 2003 and designed by Arnold Palmer, this 7,300 yard par 71 course has a rating of 77 with a slope rating of 152. It was redesigned by Gil Hanse who worked with Brad Faxon in 2007. They worked to make the course aesthetically nicer and more presentable on TV. The course itself offers generous fairways with thick damaging roughs, the par 3’s are tricky. The course features some grass bunkers among a very bucolic nature based setting.

Dell Technologies Championship - Round One Photo by Ryan Young/PGA TOUR

My Starting 4

Patrick Reed (3rd selection this year) — Last time there was a play at TPC Boston, Reed was 6th. Recently, he has finished 47th, 13th and 9th. He is currently 10th on the tour in total strokes gained.

Justin Thomas (5th selection this year) — Last time at TPC, Thomas won the whole thing. He’s 1st in FedEx Ranking right now.

Dustin Johnson (2nd selection this year) — Johnson’s last two tournaments he finished 12th and 2nd. His last time at TPC Boston, Dustin finished 18th. He’s 15th in strokes gained off the tee.

Justin Rose (2nd selection this year) — Rose struggled last week finishing 108th. I’m ignoring that given his strong abilities to bounce back and will rather look at his previous tournament (9th) and the last time he was at TPC Boston 10th.

My Bench 2

Rickie Fowler (3rd selection this year) — Fowler finished 13th here in 2017, additionally he recently finished 15th at the PGA Championship. I think we see some rallying from Fowler in the playoffs.

Paul Casey (3rd selection this year) — Casey followed up his 2nd place finish at the PGA Championship with a 31st place finish last week at the Wyndham Championship. Last time he was at TPC Boston, Casey finished 4th.

Fun Fact: This is the first time the Northern Trust has ever been at TPC Boston. The Dell Technologies Championship was held here in 2017.

2020 Stats

Starting 4: Avg finish 43rd (31st percentile)
Bench 2: Avg finish 69th (42nd percentile)